Issued 2026-09-16 at $16.55 · now $16.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VEL has typically landed between $14.46 and $19.12 — a range of −12.6% to +15.5% from the issuance price $16.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,641 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-01-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($16.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $16.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $16.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.64 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.82–$17.45
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.46–$19.12
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,641 windows spanning 2020-01-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-05 | −80.6% | −80.6% | +0.6% |
| 2020-02-24 | −75.4% | −75.4% | +0.9% |
| 2020-03-06 | −74.8% | −80.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-06 | +97.8% | −21.9% | +97.8% |
| 2020-05-07 | +94.9% | −20.9% | +100.3% |
| 2020-05-08 | +87.5% | −17.8% | +108.2% |
1,641 overlapping windows · 2020-01-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
−0.3%
n=6
Feb
29%
−2.3%
n=7
Mar
29%
−4.6%
n=7
Apr
43%
−7.3%
n=7
May
57%
+2.1%
n=7
Jun
86%
+8.5%
n=7
Jul
57%
−0.2%
n=7
Aug
71%
+8.5%
n=7
Sep
29%
−3.6%
n=7
Oct
33%
−3.9%
n=6
Nov
83%
+13.6%
n=6
Dec
50%
+4.4%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $18.03 | $36K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 64,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $18.00 | $29K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,139 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Sale | 4,330 @ $19.06 | $83K | −2.4% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 172,490 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-11 | Tam Fiona | officer | Sale | 1,232 @ $19.00 | $23K | −2.5% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,129 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-10 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $18.16 | $36K | −3.0% of holding | +0.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $18.00 | $29K | −1.6% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,794 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 400 @ $18.00 | $7K | −0.6% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 66,400 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-28 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 400 @ $18.00 | $7K | −0.6% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-07 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Sale | 2,165 @ $19.00 | $41K | −1.2% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,820 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Tam Fiona | officer | Sale | 68 @ $19.00 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | +0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,361 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $18.57 | $30K | −1.6% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,252 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-26 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,573 @ $18.07 | $28K | −2.2% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 68,400 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,573 @ $19.30 | $30K | −2.2% of holding | −16.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,973 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-17 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Sale | 2,130 @ $20.00 | $43K | −1.2% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 178,985 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,573 @ $18.13 | $29K | −2.2% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,546 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-31 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Sale | 814 @ $18.22 | $15K | −0.8% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,994 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-30 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Sale | 14,026 @ $18.03 | $253K | −12.3% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 99,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Sale | 5,160 @ $18.06 | $93K | −4.3% of holding | +3.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,934 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,573 @ $18.32 | $29K | −2.1% of holding | +2.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 73,119 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Sale | 1,772 @ $20.33 | $36K | −1.0% of holding | −9.1% | −20.9% | 181,115 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,573 @ $20.53 | $32K | −2.1% of holding | −9.1% | −20.9% | 74,692 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Sale | 1,770 @ $20.00 | $35K | −1.0% of holding | −8.1% | −24.2% | 184,137 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-15 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,573 @ $19.51 | $31K | −3.1% of holding | +2.9% | −19.9% | 49,929 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-31 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Sale | 3,049 @ $20.13 | $61K | −1.9% of holding | −3.2% | −21.4% | 158,672 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Sale | 7,571 @ $20.03 | $152K | −4.5% of holding | −3.3% | −21.7% | 161,721 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Sale | 6,655 @ $19.38 | $129K | −6.2% of holding | +0.2% | −21.8% | 100,970 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-01 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $19.34 | $30K | −3.2% of holding | +6.1% | −23.5% | 46,967 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $18.50 | $29K | −3.1% of holding | +3.1% | −3.6% | 48,539 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-10-01 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $18.05 | $28K | −3.0% of holding | −0.8% | +1.4% | 50,111 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-02 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $18.85 | $30K | −3.0% of holding | −8.7% | −11.0% | 51,683 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-12 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $18.00 | $28K | −2.9% of holding | −1.6% | −4.0% | 53,255 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-01 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Sale | 1,572 @ $18.44 | $29K | −2.8% of holding | −13.7% | −7.8% | 54,827 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
135 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Other acquisition | 1,272 | 399,665 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Other acquisition | 858 | 99,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Pitstick John | director | Disposition | 3,603 | 59,410 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-26 | Schaefer Joy L. | director | Disposition | 3,603 | 40,798 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Schaefer Joy L. | director | Award / grant | 5,413 | 44,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Pitstick John | director | Award / grant | 5,413 | 64,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Beckett Dorika M | director | Award / grant | 5,413 | 41,311 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Withheld for tax | 64,705 | 630,779 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,540 | 76,265 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 18,575 | 182,887 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,170 | 118,994 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tam Fiona | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,251 | 48,429 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Withheld for tax | 23,171 | 553,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,329 | 56,493 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,140 | 185,907 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,416 | 123,753 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tam Fiona | officer | Withheld for tax | 453 | 47,880 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Withheld for tax | 25,681 | 538,877 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,430 | 190,047 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,374 | 52,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,752 | 125,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tam Fiona | officer | Withheld for tax | 541 | 48,333 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Award / grant | 89,285 | 524,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Award / grant | 89,285 | 435,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Award / grant | 19,132 | 137,458 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Award / grant | 19,132 | 193,477 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Award / grant | 19,132 | 174,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Award / grant | 19,132 | 118,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 14,030 | 126,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Award / grant | 14,030 | 112,891 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Tam Fiona | officer | Award / grant | 3,061 | 45,813 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-15 | Tam Fiona | officer | Award / grant | 3,061 | 48,874 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Withheld for tax | 8,854 | 345,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Szczepaniak Mark R | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,255 | 99,194 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Taylor Jeffrey T. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,459 | 155,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,109 | 98,861 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-13 | Tam Fiona | officer | Withheld for tax | 681 | 42,752 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Kelly Roland Thomas | officer | Other acquisition | 1,204 | 107,625 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-30 | Farrar Christopher D. | director | Other acquisition | 1,204 | 694,919 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-23 | Schaefer Joy L. | director | Award / grant | 5,764 | 43,365 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.