Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.50 · now $38.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VCYT has typically landed between $29.92 and $49.30 — a range of −22.3% to +28.1% from the issuance price $38.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,217 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-10-30 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VCYT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $38.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.19 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $34.35–$42.02
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $29.92–$49.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,217 windows spanning 2013-10-30 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2015-08-31 | −50.3% | −50.3% | +0.0% |
| 2015-08-28 | −43.5% | −43.5% | +7.9% |
| 2021-02-04 | −42.9% | −42.9% | +4.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-10-13 | +84.6% | −5.6% | +84.6% |
| 2022-10-14 | +83.5% | −1.9% | +91.8% |
| 2022-10-12 | +75.7% | −3.8% | +75.7% |
3,217 overlapping windows · 2013-10-30 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
38%
−0.1%
n=13
Feb
46%
−1.4%
n=13
Mar
23%
−3.5%
n=13
Apr
54%
−2.1%
n=13
May
46%
+4.2%
n=13
Jun
85%
+8.5%
n=13
Jul
54%
+4.9%
n=13
Aug
46%
+1.9%
n=13
Sep
31%
−7.2%
n=13
Oct
50%
+7.8%
n=12
Nov
69%
+11.7%
n=13
Dec
46%
+1.6%
n=13
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Holstein Jens | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $40.95 | $205K | −15.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 27,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Sale | 10,405 @ $42.89 | $446K | −7.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 135,753 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Sale | 2,705 @ $43.66 | $118K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 133,048 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 2,477 @ $42.81 | $106K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 167,200 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 2,154 @ $42.79 | $92K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 132,260 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 1,175 @ $43.71 | $51K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 166,025 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 1,100 @ $43.67 | $48K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 131,160 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-01 | Bhanji Muna | director | Sale | 1,864 @ $42.97 | $80K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 42,718 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Sale | 3,200 @ $52.78 | $169K | −17.0% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,626 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Sale | 529 @ $53.55 | $28K | −3.4% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,097 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Stapley Marc | director | Sale | 138,051 @ $50.12 | $6.9M | −23.9% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 440,494 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Leite John | officer | Sale | 13,975 @ $50.07 | $700K | −9.6% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 132,305 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 1,961 @ $50.09 | $98K | −1.1% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 173,280 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 1,776 @ $50.12 | $89K | −1.3% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 137,240 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $49.28 | $79K | −0.9% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 175,241 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $49.31 | $69K | −1.0% of holding | +13.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 139,016 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-22 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Sale | 24,000 @ $45.40 | $1.1M | −34.6% of holding | +27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,434 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | EPSTEIN ROBERT S | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $44.01 | $440K | −16.0% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 5,102 @ $40.00 | $204K | −3.4% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 143,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 5,102 @ $38.05 | $194K | −3.3% of holding | +17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 148,810 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Stapley Marc | director | Sale | 26,279 @ $36.28 | $953K | −6.8% of holding | −7.1% | +11.5% | 357,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Stapley Marc | director | Sale | 19,244 @ $35.56 | $684K | −4.8% of holding | −7.1% | +11.5% | 383,833 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 13,941 @ $36.33 | $506K | −9.6% of holding | −7.1% | +11.5% | 131,196 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Leite John | officer | Sale | 5,260 @ $35.19 | $185K | −4.7% of holding | −7.1% | +11.5% | 107,580 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 4,994 @ $35.29 | $176K | −4.9% of holding | −7.1% | +11.5% | 96,370 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 4,400 @ $35.55 | $156K | −2.9% of holding | −7.1% | +11.5% | 145,137 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 1,664 @ $36.34 | $60K | −1.7% of holding | −7.1% | +11.5% | 94,706 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Sale | 13,425 @ $36.16 | $485K | −10.3% of holding | −5.6% | +7.6% | 117,346 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 10,639 @ $43.13 | $459K | −13.6% of holding | −6.0% | +13.2% | 67,860 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-16 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 100 @ $43.68 | $4K | −0.1% of holding | −6.0% | +13.2% | 67,760 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Sale | 12,808 @ $45.84 | $587K | −47.2% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 14,354 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Sale | 6,392 @ $44.52 | $285K | −19.0% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 27,162 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-05 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Sale | 800 @ $46.59 | $37K | −5.6% of holding | +0.3% | +2.3% | 13,554 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 8,537 @ $46.61 | $398K | −7.0% of holding | −5.1% | −8.9% | 114,237 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 4,741 @ $47.25 | $224K | −4.2% of holding | −5.1% | −8.9% | 109,496 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Stapley Marc | director | Sale | 4,448 @ $46.90 | $209K | −1.4% of holding | −5.1% | −8.9% | 321,823 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Stapley Marc | director | Sale | 3,220 @ $47.35 | $152K | −1.0% of holding | −5.1% | −8.9% | 318,603 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | Leite John | officer | Sale | 1,278 @ $47.51 | $61K | −1.5% of holding | −5.1% | −8.9% | 82,113 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 720 @ $47.10 | $34K | −0.9% of holding | −5.1% | −8.9% | 79,201 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-04 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 702 @ $47.51 | $33K | −0.9% of holding | −5.1% | −8.9% | 78,499 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-25 | Leite John | officer | Sale | 2,808 @ $50.00 | $140K | −3.2% of holding | −16.5% | −18.9% | 86,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Sale | 1,106 @ $50.25 | $56K | −3.6% of holding | −16.5% | −18.9% | 29,362 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Holstein Jens | director | Sale | 7,049 @ $42.48 | $299K | −19.7% of holding | +0.2% | −7.5% | 28,659 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Holstein Jens | director | Sale | 1,460 @ $43.21 | $63K | −5.1% of holding | +0.2% | −7.5% | 27,199 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Holstein Jens | director | Sale | 1,491 @ $40.95 | $61K | −4.0% of holding | +0.2% | −7.5% | 35,708 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Sale | 5,102 @ $42.33 | $216K | −11.6% of holding | +1.4% | −19.2% | 38,745 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-07 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Sale | 5,818 @ $40.21 | $234K | −11.7% of holding | +3.3% | −15.8% | 43,847 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Sale | 24,296 @ $45.73 | $1.1M | −43.8% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 31,125 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Sale | 10,837 @ $43.80 | $475K | −15.0% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 61,293 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Sale | 9,674 @ $40.02 | $387K | −41.6% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 13,554 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Sale | 7,000 @ $41.00 | $287K | −5.3% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 126,158 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Sale | 5,872 @ $45.07 | $265K | −9.6% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 55,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 6,466 @ $40.00 | $259K | −7.2% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 82,973 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Sale | 1,126 @ $43.03 | $48K | −1.5% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 72,130 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Sale | 657 @ $46.38 | $30K | −2.1% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 30,468 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-05 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Sale | 408 @ $41.74 | $17K | −0.6% of holding | −4.3% | −21.7% | 73,256 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Sale | 8,349 @ $36.02 | $301K | −8.3% of holding | −0.3% | −10.6% | 92,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | EPSTEIN ROBERT S | director | Sale | 21,473 @ $35.08 | $753K | −25.6% of holding | −4.1% | −9.6% | 62,446 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Leite John | officer | Sale | 2,539 @ $35.00 | $89K | −2.8% of holding | −4.1% | −9.6% | 89,099 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | McGuire Annie | officer | Sale | 2,160 @ $35.00 | $76K | −2.4% of holding | −4.1% | −9.6% | 89,439 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
112 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Stapley Marc | director | Withheld for tax | 8,782 | 432,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Leite John | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,961 | 128,344 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,639 | 146,158 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Withheld for tax | 3,603 | 169,677 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | McGuire Annie | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,215 | 134,414 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,361 | 43,226 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Shafer David Brent | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 31,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Barr Eliav | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 56,461 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Bhanji Muna | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 44,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | EASTHAM KARIN | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 18,826 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | EPSTEIN ROBERT S | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 57,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Holstein Jens | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 32,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | JONES EVAN/ FA | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 34,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-11 | Miller Thomas F. | director | Award / grant | 5,272 | 31,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stapley Marc | director | Option exercise | 138,051 | 578,545 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Stapley Marc | director | Option exercise | 138,051 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Stapley Marc | director | Withheld for tax | 9,012 | 440,494 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Leite John | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,059 | 146,280 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,730 | 149,797 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Withheld for tax | 3,693 | 176,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | McGuire Annie | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,292 | 140,416 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,361 | 44,073 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 24,000 | 69,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Option exercise | 24,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-10 | Haas Kevin Richard | officer | Award / grant | 44,221 | 44,221 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Award / grant | 29,603 | 146,949 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | McGuire Annie | officer | Award / grant | 26,314 | 153,912 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Leite John | officer | Award / grant | 36,181 | 143,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Leite John | officer | Award / grant | 6,578 | 150,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Award / grant | 13,157 | 180,534 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Award / grant | 36,181 | 167,377 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | McGuire Annie | officer | Award / grant | 32,892 | 127,598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Award / grant | 6,578 | 153,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Stapley Marc | director | Award / grant | 92,099 | 449,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Wygant Jonathan | officer | Award / grant | 10,525 | 45,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Stapley Marc | director | Withheld for tax | 19,455 | 403,077 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Leite John | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,517 | 112,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Chambers Rebecca | director | Withheld for tax | 7,234 | 149,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | McGuire Annie | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,902 | 101,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Febbo Phillip G. | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,035 | 130,771 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.