VCTR · TickerCove

VCTRVictory Capital Holdings, Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $103.72 · now $103.72 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VCTR has typically landed between $90.49 and $121.11 — a range of −12.8% to +16.8% from the issuance price $103.72.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,141 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-02-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($103.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$103.72 · 72% of range

$59.53 low$121.13 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.5%

typical move · IQR 13.0%

−12.8%worst (p90)+16.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where VCTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $103.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $103.72 (+0.0%)
typical $106.3 (+2.5%)
middle 50% $99.59–$113.02
90% range $90.49–$121.11

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,141 windows spanning 2018-02-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-11	−42.9%	−42.9%	+3.7%
2020-02-18	−42.0%	−44.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−39.5%	−41.8%	+5.6%
3 best
2018-10-29	+63.8%	+0.0%	+64.3%
2018-10-26	+63.7%	+0.0%	+64.3%
2018-10-25	+60.2%	−2.5%	+60.2%

2,141 overlapping windows · 2018-02-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~9 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.3%

n=8

Feb

63%

+6.0%

n=8

Mar

33%

−2.6%

n=9

Apr

56%

+4.1%

n=9

May

89%

+4.9%

n=9

Jun

56%

−0.6%

n=9

Jul

78%

+6.2%

n=9

Aug

56%

+2.8%

n=9

Sep

22%

−4.6%

n=9

Oct

63%

+2.1%

n=8

Nov

88%

+15.0%

n=8

Dec

63%

+1.1%

n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

185 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-13	Brown David Craig	officer	Withheld for tax	58,056	2,442,311	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Withheld for tax	33,453	1,274,887	Form 4
2026-08-13	Sipp Thomas Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	21,205	140,405	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Withheld for tax	9,732	254,742	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Withheld for tax	6,452	317,624	Form 4
2026-08-13	Brown David Craig	officer	Option exercise	147,529	295,057	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	324,076	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	32,781	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	264,474	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	38,248	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Option exercise	73,763	1,308,340	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Option exercise	73,763	147,524	Form 4
2026-08-13	Sipp Thomas Michael	officer	Option exercise	40,982	161,610	Form 4
2026-08-13	Sipp Thomas Michael	officer	Option exercise	40,982	81,962	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Option exercise	73,763	1,308,340	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	324,076	Form 4
2026-08-13	Sipp Thomas Michael	officer	Option exercise	40,982	161,610	Form 4
2026-08-13	Sipp Thomas Michael	officer	Option exercise	40,982	81,962	Form 4
2026-08-13	Brown David Craig	officer	Option exercise	147,529	2,500,367	Form 4
2026-08-13	Brown David Craig	officer	Option exercise	147,529	295,057	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	324,076	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	32,781	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	264,474	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	38,248	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Option exercise	73,763	147,524	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	38,248	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	264,474	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	32,781	Form 4
2026-08-13	Brown David Craig	officer	Option exercise	147,529	2,500,367	Form 4
2026-08-13	Brown David Craig	officer	Option exercise	147,529	2,500,367	Form 4
2026-08-13	Brown David Craig	officer	Option exercise	147,529	295,057	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	324,076	Form 4
2026-08-13	Dhillon Mannik S.	officer	Option exercise	16,390	32,781	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	264,474	Form 4
2026-08-13	Gupta Nina	officer	Option exercise	19,124	38,248	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Option exercise	73,763	1,308,340	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Option exercise	73,763	147,524	Form 4
2026-08-13	Sipp Thomas Michael	officer	Option exercise	40,982	161,610	Form 4
2026-08-13	Sipp Thomas Michael	officer	Option exercise	40,982	81,962	Form 4
2026-08-13	Policarpo Michael Dennis	officer	Option exercise	73,763	1,308,340	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i