Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.50 · now $7.50 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VATE has typically landed between $5.04 and $11.40 — a range of −32.8% to +52.0% from the issuance price $7.50.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,299 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-07-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.50) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VATE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.14 (-4.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $6.21–$8.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $5.04–$11.4
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −68.2% | −68.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-04 | −66.7% | −66.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −65.4% | −65.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-03-25 | +250.4% | −1.3% | +250.4% |
| 2026-03-23 | +232.5% | +0.0% | +232.5% |
| 2026-03-26 | +228.4% | +0.0% | +255.2% |
4,299 overlapping windows · 2009-07-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Sale | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Sale | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Sale | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Sale | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Purchase | — | — | ownership Δ n/a | +3.6% | −1.7% | — | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
23 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Voigt Paul | officer | Withheld for tax | 60,643 | 698,758 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Goldstein Brian Steven | director | Award / grant | 12,016 | 60,999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Wilkinson Amy Marie | director | Award / grant | 12,016 | 58,920 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GFELLER WARREN H | director | Award / grant | 12,016 | 79,719 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Voigt Paul | officer | Award / grant | 133,511 | 759,401 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 15,576 | 131,558 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Award / grant | 12,016 | 66,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-15 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,207 | 115,982 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-14 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,920 | 117,189 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,784 | 122,109 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-15 | Voigt Paul | officer | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-06 | Voigt Paul | officer | Award / grant | 176,056 | 625,890 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Wilkinson Amy Marie | director | Award / grant | 16,363 | 46,904 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Award / grant | 16,363 | 53,984 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | GFELLER WARREN H | director | Award / grant | 16,363 | 67,703 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-12 | Goldstein Brian Steven | director | Award / grant | 16,363 | 48,983 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-15 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,053 | 123,893 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-14 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,302 | 124,946 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-13 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Award / grant | 12,946 | 129,248 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-11 | Sena Michael J. | officer | Withheld for tax | 862 | 116,302 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Gift | 2,097,902 | 2,135,523 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Gift | 2,097,902 | 37,621 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-16 | GLAZER AVRAM A | director | Gift | 2,097,902 | 2,097,902 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.