Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.22 · now $1.22 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VANI has typically landed between $0.91 and $1.62 — a range of −25.6% to +32.6% from the issuance price $1.22.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,947 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-11-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.22) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where VANI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.22 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $1.22 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1.17 (-4.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $1.05–$1.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $0.9071–$1.62
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,947 windows spanning 2014-11-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-03-06 | −79.7% | −79.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −79.3% | −79.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-02 | −77.7% | −77.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2021-02-03 | +623.4% | −33.2% | +623.4% |
| 2021-02-08 | +498.4% | −43.7% | +509.4% |
| 2021-02-09 | +490.9% | −43.3% | +514.3% |
2,947 overlapping windows · 2014-11-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
42%
−1.4%
n=12
Feb
33%
+26.3%
n=12
Mar
33%
+17.2%
n=12
Apr
42%
+3.2%
n=12
May
50%
+5.6%
n=12
Jun
33%
−6.5%
n=12
Jul
50%
−1.8%
n=12
Aug
33%
−9.3%
n=12
Sep
58%
−4.6%
n=12
Oct
27%
−7.5%
n=11
Nov
36%
−6.3%
n=11
Dec
33%
+1.1%
n=12
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 793,650 @ $1.26 | $1000K | +2.2% of holding | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,912,736 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,587,301 @ $1.26 | $2.0M | +4.6% of holding | +19.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,119,086 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,587,301 @ $1.26 | $2.0M | +4.8% of holding | −1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,531,785 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,587,301 @ $1.26 | $2.0M | +5.1% of holding | −1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,944,484 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,310,680 @ $1.03 | $1.4M | +4.4% of holding | −7.9% | −0.9% | 31,092,632 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 264,551 @ $1.26 | $333K | +0.9% of holding | −7.9% | −0.9% | 31,357,183 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,601,941 @ $1.03 | $1.6M | +5.7% of holding | +4.2% | +0.5% | 29,517,401 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 264,551 @ $1.26 | $333K | +0.9% of holding | +4.2% | +0.5% | 29,781,952 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-27 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,351,351 @ $1.48 | $2.0M | +5.1% of holding | −8.5% | −14.1% | 27,915,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,473,214 @ $1.12 | $1.6M | +5.9% of holding | +1.4% | −0.6% | 26,299,558 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 264,551 @ $1.26 | $333K | +1.0% of holding | +1.4% | −0.6% | 26,564,109 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-29 | Mendelsohn Aaron | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $1.23 | $25K | +11.9% of holding | +19.9% | −10.6% | 188,170 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,473,214 @ $1.12 | $1.6M | +6.4% of holding | −8.7% | −24.3% | 24,561,793 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 264,551 @ $1.26 | $333K | +1.1% of holding | −8.7% | −24.3% | 24,826,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,473,214 @ $1.12 | $1.6M | +6.9% of holding | −1.7% | −28.8% | 22,824,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 264,550 @ $1.26 | $333K | +1.2% of holding | −1.7% | −28.8% | 23,088,579 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-27 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 3,703,703 @ $1.62 | $6.0M | +21.0% of holding | −17.0% | −23.0% | 21,350,815 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,473,214 @ $1.12 | $1.6M | +9.3% of holding | +2.0% | −5.9% | 17,382,562 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 264,550 @ $1.26 | $333K | +1.5% of holding | +2.0% | −5.9% | 17,647,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,473,215 @ $1.12 | $1.7M | +10.6% of holding | +3.5% | −6.8% | 15,314,110 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 595,238 @ $1.26 | $750K | +3.9% of holding | +3.5% | −6.8% | 15,909,348 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 2,405 @ $1.01 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +11.1% | +24.1% | 13,840,895 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 6,836 @ $1.01 | $7K | +0.0% of holding | +8.6% | +17.6% | 13,838,490 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-14 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 3,499 @ $1.01 | $4K | +0.0% of holding | +12.3% | +34.5% | 13,831,654 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-24 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,113 @ $1.01 | $1K | +0.0% of holding | +3.8% | +34.7% | 13,828,155 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-22 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 243 @ $1.01 | $245 | +0.0% of holding | +0.2% | +36.7% | 13,827,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 1,569 @ $1.01 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −2.6% | +51.9% | 13,826,799 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 2,311 @ $1.01 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | −7.0% | +8.4% | 13,825,230 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-09 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 18,529 @ $1.02 | $19K | +0.1% of holding | −3.8% | +11.2% | 13,822,919 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 62,899 @ $1.02 | $64K | +0.5% of holding | −13.8% | −1.1% | 13,804,390 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-07 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 58,583 @ $0.99 | $58K | +0.4% of holding | −11.3% | +0.9% | 13,741,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 44,400 @ $0.99 | $44K | +0.9% of holding | −11.3% | +0.9% | 4,799,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 34,000 @ $0.99 | $34K | +0.7% of holding | −3.3% | +13.2% | 4,754,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-04 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 5,600 @ $0.98 | $5K | +0.0% of holding | −3.3% | +13.2% | 13,682,908 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 22,939 @ $1.00 | $23K | +0.5% of holding | −1.0% | +16.0% | 4,720,800 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | Williams Gregg | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $1.01 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +2.6% | +32.3% | 4,697,861 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Dwyer Donald | officer | Purchase | 4,000 @ $1.02 | $4K | +7.8% of holding | +2.4% | +21.3% | 55,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-28 | Dwyer Donald | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $1.11 | $1K | +2.0% of holding | +0.2% | −5.6% | 51,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Baldor Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Baldor Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Dwyer Donald | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Dwyer Donald | officer | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Le Truc | officer | Award / grant | 160,000 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Le Truc | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Mendelsohn Adam | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Mendelsohn Adam | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Porter Lisa Ellen | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Porter Lisa Ellen | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | BRADBURY DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 7,965 | 7,965 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | BRADBURY DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 36,516 | 36,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Mendelsohn Aaron | director | Award / grant | 36,516 | 36,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Popoff Alexandra L. | director | Award / grant | 36,516 | 36,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Williams Gregg | director | Award / grant | 36,516 | 36,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | Moretti August J | director | Award / grant | 36,000 | 36,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | Williams Gregg | director | Award / grant | 72,392 | 72,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-01 | BRADBURY DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 47,212 | 47,212 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Popoff Alexandra L. | director | Award / grant | 35,135 | 35,135 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Williams Gregg | director | Award / grant | 35,135 | 35,135 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Baker Wilford Dean | director | Award / grant | 35,135 | 35,135 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | Mendelsohn Aaron | director | Award / grant | 35,135 | 35,135 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-24 | BRADBURY DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 35,135 | 35,135 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-15 | Baldor Anthony | officer | Award / grant | 600,000 | 600,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Porter Lisa Ellen | officer | Award / grant | 40,000 | 40,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Mendelsohn Adam | director | Award / grant | 200,000 | 200,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Mendelsohn Adam | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Porter Lisa Ellen | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Dwyer Donald | officer | Award / grant | 70,000 | 70,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Dwyer Donald | officer | Award / grant | 35,000 | 35,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Le Truc | officer | Award / grant | 160,000 | 160,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Le Truc | officer | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Makes Brigid | director | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-12 | Makes Brigid | director | Award / grant | 37,500 | 37,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Williams Gregg | director | Award / grant | 76,757 | 76,757 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | BRADBURY DANIEL | director | Award / grant | 50,059 | 50,059 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | Williams Gregg | director | Disposition | 364 | 76,393 | Form 4 |
| 2025-01-01 | BRADBURY DANIEL | director | Disposition | 237 | 49,822 | Form 4 |
| 2024-07-08 | Mendelsohn Aaron | director | Gift | 20,000 | 168,170 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.