VALValaris Limitedas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $82.52 · now $82.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VAL has typically landed between $68.22 and $100.05 — a range of −17.3% to +21.2% from the issuance price $82.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,317 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-05-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($82.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $82.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$68.22worst · -17.3%$100.05best · +21.2%
  • now $82.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $83.55 (+1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $76.24–$90.86
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $68.22–$100.05
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,317 windows spanning 2021-05-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-06-03−35.9%−35.9%+0.0%
2022-06-02−34.4%−34.4%+0.0%
2025-01-30−32.6%−32.6%+0.0%
3 best
2026-01-23+76.8%+0.0%+76.9%
2026-01-14+75.5%−1.3%+75.5%
2026-01-21+74.4%−1.1%+74.8%

1,317 overlapping windows · 2021-05-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
80%
+7.2%
n=5
Feb
40%
+6.6%
n=5
Mar
80%
+11.2%
n=5
Apr
20%
−7.5%
n=5
May
60%
+7.9%
n=5
Jun
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Jul
83%
+10.7%
n=6
Aug
67%
−0.2%
n=6
Sep
17%
−0.3%
n=6
Oct
60%
+6.3%
n=5
Nov
40%
−3.5%
n=5
Dec
40%
+0.7%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$113$442025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Luca Gilles2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Luca Gilles — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-09-03Luca GillesofficerSale35,000 @ $48.84$1.7M−30.1% of holding−1.8%+78.5%81,269Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05Dibowitz AntondirectorPurchase7,500 @ $33.91$254K+3.1% of holding+9.2%+35.9%250,401Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

80 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-03Barron MelissaofficerWithheld for tax26017,742Form 4
2026-07-01Barron MelissaofficerWithheld for tax73518,002Form 4
2026-07-01Barron MelissaofficerAward / grant8,67318,737Form 4
2026-06-10LEYKUM ELIZABETHdirectorDisposition2,79243,019Form 4
2026-06-10Johansen KristiandirectorDisposition1,9447,564Form 4
2026-06-10Hughes CatherinedirectorWithheld for tax39715,448Form 4
2026-06-10LEYKUM ELIZABETHdirectorOption exercise6,97845,811Form 4
2026-06-10LEYKUM ELIZABETHdirectorOption exercise6,9780Form 4
2026-06-10LEYKUM ELIZABETHdirectorAward / grant2,8492,849Form 4
2026-06-10FAGERSTAL DICKdirectorAward / grant2,3912,391Form 4
2026-06-10Goldschmid JosephdirectorAward / grant2,18838,560Form 4
2026-06-10Hughes CatherinedirectorAward / grant2,49315,845Form 4
2026-06-10Johansen KristiandirectorOption exercise4,8609,508Form 4
2026-06-10Johansen KristiandirectorAward / grant1,9849,548Form 4
2026-06-10Johansen KristiandirectorOption exercise4,8600Form 4
2026-04-07Dibowitz AntondirectorWithheld for tax141254,607Form 4
2026-04-07Lyne MatthewofficerWithheld for tax6033,652Form 4
2026-04-07Weber Christopher TofficerWithheld for tax5062,433Form 4
2026-04-07Luca GillesofficerWithheld for tax5083,551Form 4
2026-04-07Vukadin DavorofficerWithheld for tax3019,707Form 4
2026-04-07Lyne MatthewofficerAward / grant37933,712Form 4
2026-04-07Dibowitz AntondirectorAward / grant1,067254,748Form 4
2026-04-07Weber Christopher TofficerAward / grant37962,483Form 4
2026-04-07Luca GillesofficerAward / grant37983,601Form 4
2026-04-07Vukadin DavorofficerAward / grant22119,737Form 4
2026-04-01Barron MelissaofficerWithheld for tax2010,064Form 4
2026-03-05Dibowitz AntondirectorWithheld for tax2,332253,681Form 4
2026-03-05Lyne MatthewofficerWithheld for tax99133,333Form 4
2026-03-05Luca GillesofficerWithheld for tax83083,222Form 4
2026-03-05Weber Christopher TofficerWithheld for tax83062,104Form 4
2026-03-05Vukadin DavorofficerWithheld for tax47919,516Form 4
2026-03-03Dibowitz AntondirectorWithheld for tax3,405256,013Form 4
2026-03-03Lyne MatthewofficerWithheld for tax1,44934,324Form 4
2026-03-03Weber Christopher TofficerWithheld for tax1,19362,934Form 4
2026-03-03Luca GillesofficerWithheld for tax1,19384,052Form 4
2026-03-03Vukadin DavorofficerWithheld for tax69019,995Form 4
2026-03-02Dibowitz AntondirectorAward / grant14,037259,418Form 4
2026-03-02Luca GillesofficerAward / grant4,99285,245Form 4
2026-03-02Weber Christopher TofficerAward / grant4,99264,127Form 4
2026-03-02Lyne MatthewofficerAward / grant4,99235,773Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-08-132023-06-29$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousepurchase2023-05-192023-04-10$1–15K
David B. MckinleyHousesale2016-04-012016-03-24$1–15K
Thomas MacarthurHousesale2015-06-072015-05-27$15–50K
David B. MckinleyHousepurchase2015-04-302014-03-07$1–15K
Robert P Corker JrSenatesale2014-06-102014-05-20$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.