VACMarriott Vacations Worldwide CorporationConsumer Cyclical · Gambling, Resorts & Casinosas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $101.45 · now $101.45 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, VAC has typically landed between $83.48 and $123.92 — a range of −17.7% to +22.2% from the issuance price $101.45.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,713 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-11-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($101.45) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where VAC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $101.45 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$83.48worst · -17.7%$123.92best · +22.2%
  • now $101.45 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $100.81 (-0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $92.67–$108.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $83.48–$123.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,713 windows spanning 2011-11-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−69.9%−69.9%+4.0%
2020-02-19−67.2%−70.7%+1.3%
2020-02-21−64.9%−70.5%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+113.0%+0.0%+113.0%
2020-03-19+85.7%+0.0%+89.8%
2020-03-23+73.5%+0.0%+78.8%

3,713 overlapping windows · 2011-11-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~15 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
47%
+2.3%
n=15
Feb
53%
+6.0%
n=15
Mar
60%
−0.6%
n=15
Apr
53%
+3.2%
n=15
May
40%
+1.6%
n=15
Jun
53%
+1.3%
n=15
Jul
60%
+1.8%
n=15
Aug
53%
−0.7%
n=15
Sep
47%
−1.1%
n=15
Oct
57%
+1.9%
n=14
Nov
64%
+4.0%
n=14
Dec
73%
+2.5%
n=15

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$125$442026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $83.6M — Asmar Christian2026-08-17: 1 insider sale, $300K — Pighini Kathleen A.2026-03-10: 3 insider purchases, $1000K — Flaskey Michael …2026-01-07: 2 insider purchases, $4K — Fitzgerald John D. …2026-01-06: 1 insider purchase, $3K — Fitzgerald John D.2025-11-25: 1 insider purchase, $60K — Gray Jonice M2025-11-21: 1 insider purchase, $26K — Morgan Dianna2025-11-20: 1 insider purchase, $240K — MCCARTEN WILLIAM W2025-11-19: 1 insider purchase, $4.0M — Asmar Christian2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $256K — GALBREATH LIZANNE2025-11-14: 3 insider purchases, $1.2M — SHAW WILLIAM JOSEPH, Avril Matthew E, QUAZZO STEPHEN R2025-11-13: 1 insider purchase, $470K — ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTT2025-11: 9 open-market purchases, $6.3M2026-01: 3 open-market purchases, $7K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $1000K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $83.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Asmar Christian — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pighini Kathleen A. — Sale on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Flaskey Michael — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed same dayofficer Flaskey Michael — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed same dayofficer Flaskey Michael — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed same dayofficer Fitzgerald John D. — Purchase on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fitzgerald John D. — Purchase on 2026-01-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Fitzgerald John D. — Purchase on 2026-01-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gray Jonice M — Purchase on 2025-11-25, filed same daydirector Morgan Dianna — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MCCARTEN WILLIAM W — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Asmar Christian — Purchase on 2025-11-19, filed same daydirector GALBREATH LIZANNE — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed same daydirector SHAW WILLIAM JOSEPH — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed same daydirector Avril Matthew E — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed same daydirector QUAZZO STEPHEN R — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed same daydirector ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTT — Purchase on 2025-11-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19Asmar ChristiandirectorSale750,000 @ $111.49$83.6M−18.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open3,380,818Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Pighini Kathleen A.officerSale2,500 @ $120.00$300K−18.8% of holding−12.7%not yet — horizon still open10,821Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Flaskey MichaelofficerPurchase11,848 @ $67.39$798K+421.0% of holding+2.2%+39.5%14,662Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-10Flaskey MichaelofficerPurchase2,814 @ $66.64$188Kownership Δ n/a+2.2%+39.5%2,814Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-10Flaskey MichaelofficerPurchase200 @ $68.37$14K+1.4% of holding+2.2%+39.5%14,862Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-07Fitzgerald John D.officerPurchase52 @ $61.15$3K+0.3% of holding−9.2%+54.3%16,380Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-07Fitzgerald John D.officerPurchase13 @ $61.15$800+1.3% of holding−9.2%+54.3%1,013Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-06Fitzgerald John D.officerPurchase44 @ $61.06$3K+0.3% of holding−10.3%+52.2%16,328Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-25Gray Jonice MdirectorPurchase1,100 @ $54.47$60K+9.1% of holding+6.1%+48.3%13,205Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21Morgan DiannadirectorPurchase500 @ $51.22$26K+2.2% of holding+11.4%+57.1%23,094Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-20MCCARTEN WILLIAM WdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $48.08$240K+57.4% of holding+21.4%+59.1%13,708Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-19Asmar ChristiandirectorPurchase84,000 @ $47.44$4.0M+2.1% of holding+18.9%+49.7%4,130,340Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-18GALBREATH LIZANNEdirectorPurchase5,500 @ $46.51$256K+27.2% of holding+21.4%+51.2%25,714Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-14SHAW WILLIAM JOSEPHdirectorPurchase20,000 @ $46.04$921K+10.9% of holding+24.1%+48.6%203,547Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-14Avril Matthew EdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $45.61$228K+9.4% of holding+24.1%+48.6%57,981Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-14QUAZZO STEPHEN RdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $45.53$91K+9.1% of holding+24.1%+48.6%24,090Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $47.01$470K+31.8% of holding+24.4%+51.6%41,435Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-18Asmar ChristiandirectorPurchase337,551 @ $68.11$23.0M+9.1% of holding+11.5%−26.7%4,045,984Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-17Asmar ChristiandirectorPurchase412,449 @ $67.61$27.9M+12.5% of holding+12.2%−29.7%3,708,433Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-06GELLER JOHN E. JRdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $72.04$360K+7.8% of holding−12.4%−2.2%68,962Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06Butera Stephanie SobeckofficerPurchase650 @ $71.66$47K+8.0% of holding−12.4%−2.2%8,770Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-04ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorPurchase1,620 @ $71.82$116K+6.1% of holding−4.9%−0.4%28,144Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

196 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Gray Jonice MdirectorAward / grant29818,100Form 4
2026-08-17Bukkapatnam RamanofficerWithheld for tax1,05112,655Form 4
2026-08-17Marino Jason P.officerAward / grant18,75018,750Form 4
2026-08-17Anokhin VladimirofficerAward / grant1,2501,250Form 4
2026-06-16Gray Jonice MdirectorAward / grant31517,802Form 4
2026-06-10ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorAward / grant9744,715Form 4
2026-06-10Gray Jonice MdirectorAward / grant11817,487Form 4
2026-06-10QUAZZO STEPHEN RdirectorAward / grant2427,094Form 4
2026-06-10SHAW WILLIAM JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant24207,590Form 4
2026-06-10Morgan DiannadirectorAward / grant2426,099Form 4
2026-06-10GALBREATH LIZANNEdirectorAward / grant8828,966Form 4
2026-06-10Avril Matthew EdirectorAward / grant2786,243Form 4
2026-05-18GALBREATH LIZANNEdirectorAward / grant2,91328,878Form 4
2026-05-18Dausch James AdirectorAward / grant2,9135,825Form 4
2026-05-18Morgan DiannadirectorAward / grant2,91326,075Form 4
2026-05-18Gray Jonice MdirectorAward / grant2,91317,369Form 4
2026-05-18QUAZZO STEPHEN RdirectorAward / grant2,91327,070Form 4
2026-05-18SHAW WILLIAM JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant3,953207,566Form 4
2026-05-18ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorAward / grant2,91344,618Form 4
2026-04-15Marcus Andrew T.officerWithheld for tax3717,644Form 4
2026-03-19Walker Tony M.officerAward / grant19,08619,086Form 4
2026-03-19Walker Tony M.officerAward / grant4,9364,936Form 4
2026-03-19Marcus Andrew T.officerAward / grant3,78417,681Form 4
2026-03-19Marcus Andrew T.officerAward / grant14,63514,635Form 4
2026-03-18Galligan Mary EdirectorAward / grant554,945Form 4
2026-03-18MCCARTEN WILLIAM WdirectorAward / grant2113,752Form 4
2026-03-18Morgan DiannadirectorAward / grant3223,162Form 4
2026-03-18QUAZZO STEPHEN RdirectorAward / grant3124,157Form 4
2026-03-18GALBREATH LIZANNEdirectorAward / grant11725,965Form 4
2026-03-18ANDREWS CHARLES ELLIOTTdirectorAward / grant12741,705Form 4
2026-03-18SHAW WILLIAM JOSEPHdirectorAward / grant31203,613Form 4
2026-03-18Avril Matthew EdirectorAward / grant3486,216Form 4
2026-03-18Gray Jonice MdirectorAward / grant13814,456Form 4
2026-03-17Gray Jonice MdirectorAward / grant43814,318Form 4
2026-03-04Flaskey MichaelofficerWithheld for tax10,88719,113Form 4
2026-03-04Gustafson Lori M.officerAward / grant5,26513,154Form 4
2026-03-04Avril Matthew EdirectorAward / grant28,16386,182Form 4
2026-03-04Avril Matthew EdirectorAward / grant75,00075,000Form 4
2026-03-04Avril Matthew EdirectorAward / grant112,184112,484Form 4
2026-03-04Flaskey MichaelofficerAward / grant30,00030,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.