Issued 2026-09-16 at $370.93 · now $370.93 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, V has typically landed between $339.05 and $407.32 — a range of −8.6% to +9.8% from the issuance price $370.93.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,632 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-03-19 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($370.93) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where V has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $370.93 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $370.93 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $374.54 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $360.29–$388.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $339.05–$407.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,632 windows spanning 2008-03-19 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −35.0% | −35.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −30.6% | −30.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −29.7% | −29.7% | +1.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-04-02 | +37.1% | +0.0% | +37.1% |
| 2008-04-01 | +35.5% | +0.0% | +35.5% |
| 2008-04-07 | +34.5% | −1.1% | +34.5% |
4,632 overlapping windows · 2008-03-19 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
$681.9B
market cap
$11.48
EPS (TTM)
31.0
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$40.0B
'20'25
Net income$20.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$21.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr50.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr52.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.66
'20'25
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$219.13
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$188.07
- Analyst target · range $350.00–$450.00$394.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$370.93
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
67%
+3.8%
n=18
Mar
50%
−0.1%
n=18
Apr
68%
+4.9%
n=19
May
63%
+1.0%
n=19
Jun
42%
−0.2%
n=19
Jul
79%
+2.5%
n=19
Aug
68%
+1.7%
n=19
Sep
37%
−1.8%
n=19
Oct
67%
+3.0%
n=18
Nov
72%
+3.0%
n=18
Dec
72%
+1.9%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Sale | 1,867 @ $368.34 | $688K | −9.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 5,875 @ $379.65 | $2.2M | −27.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Sale | 2,028 @ $381.35 | $773K | −9.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 18,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Taneja Rajat | director | Sale | 17,927 @ $371.00 | $6.7M | −7.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 232,112 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 5,875 @ $367.87 | $2.2M | −27.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,174 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MAHON TULLIER KELLY | officer | Sale | 37,281 @ $365.05 | $13.6M | −34.9% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,653 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-30 | MAHON TULLIER KELLY | officer | Sale | 19,991 @ $364.81 | $7.3M | −28.7% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 49,662 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Sale | 2,027 @ $360.00 | $730K | −9.9% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 18,404 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 8,852 @ $343.88 | $3.0M | −34.5% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,812 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 1,638 @ $344.55 | $564K | −9.7% of holding | +4.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-29 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 20,970 @ $340.25 | $7.1M | −58.0% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Suh Chris | officer | Sale | 10,639 @ $324.81 | $3.5M | −51.9% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,872 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-29 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 31,455 @ $340.14 | $10.7M | −67.5% of holding | −8.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 15,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | CARNEY LLOYD | director | Sale | 650 @ $309.62 | $201K | −19.5% of holding | −2.2% | +6.5% | 2,679 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 10,485 @ $349.18 | $3.7M | −52.7% of holding | −6.0% | −8.0% | 9,401 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 10,485 @ $340.07 | $3.6M | −52.7% of holding | −6.1% | −16.1% | 9,401 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Sale | 2,027 @ $345.00 | $699K | −9.9% of holding | −6.1% | −16.1% | 18,404 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Taneja Rajat | director | Sale | 23,743 @ $330.14 | $7.8M | −9.3% of holding | +4.6% | −14.2% | 232,112 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-02 | Fabara Paul D | officer | Sale | 7,556 @ $331.45 | $2.5M | −22.2% of holding | +4.6% | −14.2% | 26,413 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Taneja Rajat | director | Sale | 6,305 @ $330.00 | $2.1M | −2.6% of holding | +3.0% | −14.2% | 232,112 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-21 | Fabara Paul D | officer | Sale | 2,172 @ $325.93 | $708K | −7.6% of holding | +3.0% | −14.2% | 26,413 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-04 | CARNEY LLOYD | director | Sale | 900 @ $336.48 | $303K | −26.7% of holding | −5.0% | −14.2% | 2,468 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 10,485 @ $341.00 | $3.6M | −95.1% of holding | −2.1% | −13.0% | 537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 10,485 @ $342.30 | $3.6M | −95.1% of holding | −2.5% | −11.8% | 537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 10,485 @ $348.57 | $3.7M | −95.1% of holding | −5.3% | −15.7% | 537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Sale | 2,027 @ $344.02 | $697K | −14.5% of holding | −1.5% | −13.5% | 11,925 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 10,485 @ $343.13 | $3.6M | −95.1% of holding | −4.3% | −15.0% | 537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 8,630 @ $353.82 | $3.1M | −94.1% of holding | −5.2% | −12.0% | 537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Fabara Paul D | officer | Sale | 11,636 @ $375.00 | $4.4M | −30.6% of holding | −10.3% | −27.4% | 26,413 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Taneja Rajat | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $370.00 | $9.3M | −9.7% of holding | −8.2% | −26.5% | 232,112 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-05 | Fabara Paul D | officer | Sale | 24,201 @ $370.00 | $9.0M | −47.8% of holding | −8.2% | −26.5% | 26,413 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Fabara Paul D | officer | Sale | 22,013 @ $370.00 | $8.1M | −45.5% of holding | −8.2% | −26.5% | 26,413 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Taneja Rajat | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $367.75 | $9.2M | −9.7% of holding | −7.5% | −25.5% | 232,112 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Sale | 8,620 @ $362.77 | $3.1M | −94.1% of holding | −8.0% | −24.7% | 537 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
266 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Option exercise | 1,867 | 20,271 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Option exercise | 1,867 | 3,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 5,875 | 21,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 5,875 | 58,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Option exercise | 2,028 | 20,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Option exercise | 2,028 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 5,875 | 21,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 5,875 | 64,624 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,992 | 18,169 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,714 | 10,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Award / grant | 5,492 | 5,492 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 11,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 25,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 25,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 11,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 11,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 25,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 25,161 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Suh Chris | officer | Option exercise | 15,289 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 11,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | ANDRESKI PETER M | officer | Option exercise | 4,170 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | MAHON TULLIER KELLY | officer | Option exercise | 37,281 | 106,934 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | MAHON TULLIER KELLY | officer | Option exercise | 37,281 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Option exercise | 2,027 | 20,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | ROTTENBERG JULIE B | officer | Option exercise | 2,027 | 2,028 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 10,490 | 25,664 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 10,490 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 20,970 | 36,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 20,970 | 10,490 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 31,455 | 46,629 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | MCINERNEY RYAN | director | Option exercise | 31,455 | 31,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Taneja Rajat | director | Withheld for tax | 17,610 | 250,039 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | MAHON TULLIER KELLY | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,551 | 69,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Fabara Paul D | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,421 | 37,314 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-16 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-07-06 | 2026-06-02 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-06-10 | 2026-05-29 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-01 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-15 | $15–50K |
| Jonathan Jackson | House | sale | 2026-05-27 | 2026-04-24 | $50–100K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $15–50K |
| David J. Taylor | House | purchase | 2026-05-07 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Michael T. McCaul | House | sale | 2026-05-04 | 2026-04-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $15–50K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $50–100K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.