UVV · TickerCove

UVVUniversal CorporationConsumer Defensive · Tobaccoas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $44.59 · now $44.59 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UVV has typically landed between $40.32 and $49.89 — a range of −9.6% to +11.9% from the issuance price $44.59.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($44.59) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$44.59 · 2% of range

$44.32 low$56.92 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.2%

typical move · IQR 8.1%

−9.6%worst (p90)+11.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where UVV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $44.59 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $44.59 (+0.0%)
typical $44.66 (+0.2%)
middle 50% $42.86–$46.46
90% range $40.32–$49.89

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2010-05-03	−29.0%	−29.0%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−28.3%	−28.3%	+0.3%
2007-07-11	−27.7%	−27.7%	+0.2%
3 best
2018-04-30	+41.4%	−0.9%	+42.4%
2018-05-03	+40.3%	−1.8%	+41.2%
2018-04-27	+39.6%	−2.9%	+39.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−0.6%

n=20

Feb

60%

+3.0%

n=20

Mar

65%

+3.5%

n=20

Apr

60%

+1.2%

n=20

May

45%

+1.0%

n=20

Jun

40%

−1.5%

n=20

Jul

55%

+2.3%

n=20

Aug

40%

−5.6%

n=20

Sep

40%

−0.2%

n=20

Oct

60%

+1.0%

n=20

Nov

60%

+3.7%

n=20

Dec

50%

+2.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-10	Freeman Lennart R.	director	Sale	1,782 @ $49.82	$89K	−9.5% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	16,935	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-03	SLEDD ROBERT C	director	Sale	2,845 @ $54.13	$154K	−19.2% of holding	−3.1%	not yet — horizon still open	11,959	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-26	SLEDD ROBERT C	director	Sale	1,000 @ $53.95	$54K	−6.3% of holding	+5.8%	−24.3%	14,768	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-19	Freeman Lennart R.	director	Sale	3,746 @ $53.45	$200K	−19.0% of holding	+0.2%	−24.0%	15,993	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-26	Hentschke Airton L	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $54.94	$549K	−6.9% of holding	−2.2%	−6.4%	135,129	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15	SLEDD ROBERT C	director	Sale	4,617 @ $53.25	$246K	−22.7% of holding	+1.2%	−3.8%	15,698	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-11	Freeman Lennart R.	director	Sale	2,800 @ $52.89	$148K	−12.5% of holding	+1.3%	−9.9%	19,669	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

87 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-04	Trojan Greg	director	Award / grant	4,580	4,580	Form 4
2026-08-04	SLEDD ROBERT C	director	Award / grant	2,650	14,647	Form 4
2026-08-04	Manolios Fotini Emanuel	director	Award / grant	2,650	5,488	Form 4
2026-08-04	Schick Arthur J. Jr.	director	Award / grant	2,650	11,467	Form 4
2026-08-04	Freeman Lennart R.	director	Award / grant	2,650	18,717	Form 4
2026-08-04	Cantor Diana F	director	Award / grant	2,650	30,256	Form 4
2026-08-04	Tullidge Thomas H Jr	director	Award / grant	2,650	22,123	Form 4
2026-08-04	Williams Jacqueline T.	director	Award / grant	2,650	19,179	Form 4
2026-06-02	Hentschke Airton L	officer	Withheld for tax	4,276	144,163	Form 4
2026-06-02	Wigner Preston Douglas	director	Withheld for tax	2,001	127,253	Form 4
2026-06-02	O'Keefe John Patrick	officer	Withheld for tax	1,366	21,665	Form 4
2026-06-02	Claiborne Catherine H	officer	Withheld for tax	1,041	37,593	Form 4
2026-06-02	Bleicher Scott J	officer	Withheld for tax	673	20,169	Form 4
2026-06-02	STARKE MCKEEN	officer	Withheld for tax	484	11,200	Form 4
2026-06-02	Diel Steven S.	officer	Withheld for tax	183	35,172	Form 4
2026-06-02	Bleicher Scott J	officer	Award / grant	1,560	20,842	Form 4
2026-06-02	Bleicher Scott J	officer	Award / grant	2,210	19,282	Form 4
2026-06-02	Claiborne Catherine H	officer	Award / grant	7,980	36,221	Form 4
2026-06-02	Claiborne Catherine H	officer	Award / grant	2,413	38,634	Form 4
2026-06-02	Diel Steven S.	officer	Award / grant	5,315	34,892	Form 4
2026-06-02	Diel Steven S.	officer	Award / grant	463	35,355	Form 4
2026-06-02	Hentschke Airton L	officer	Award / grant	10,765	138,958	Form 4
2026-06-02	Hentschke Airton L	officer	Award / grant	9,481	148,439	Form 4
2026-06-02	O'Keefe John Patrick	officer	Award / grant	3,825	19,863	Form 4
2026-06-02	O'Keefe John Patrick	officer	Award / grant	3,168	23,031	Form 4
2026-06-02	STARKE MCKEEN	officer	Award / grant	2,960	10,563	Form 4
2026-06-02	STARKE MCKEEN	officer	Award / grant	1,121	11,684	Form 4
2026-06-02	Santos Godoi Tatiana	officer	Award / grant	2,515	4,492	Form 4
2026-06-02	Wigner Preston Douglas	director	Award / grant	20,890	124,818	Form 4
2026-06-02	Wigner Preston Douglas	director	Award / grant	4,436	129,254	Form 4
2026-06-01	Hentschke Airton L	officer	Withheld for tax	9,485	128,193	Form 4
2026-06-01	Wigner Preston Douglas	director	Withheld for tax	2,461	103,928	Form 4
2026-06-01	O'Keefe John Patrick	officer	Withheld for tax	1,685	16,038	Form 4
2026-06-01	Claiborne Catherine H	officer	Withheld for tax	1,277	28,241	Form 4
2026-06-01	Bleicher Scott J	officer	Withheld for tax	882	17,072	Form 4
2026-06-01	STARKE MCKEEN	officer	Withheld for tax	733	7,603	Form 4
2026-06-01	Diel Steven S.	officer	Withheld for tax	248	29,577	Form 4
2026-04-01	Bleicher Scott J	officer	Award / grant	4,670	17,798	Form 4
2026-04-01	Diel Steven S.	officer	Award / grant	22,417	29,459	Form 4
2025-11-10	Santos Godoi Tatiana	officer	Award / grant	1,920	1,920	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i