UVSP · TickerCove

UVSPUnivest Financial CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.68 · now $42.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UVSP has typically landed between $38.17 and $48.85 — a range of −10.6% to +14.4% from the issuance price $42.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$42.68 · 87% of range

$27.61 low$44.98 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 11.3%

−10.6%worst (p90)+14.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where UVSP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $42.68 (+0.0%)
typical $42.82 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $40.4–$45.24
90% range $38.17–$48.85

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−45.0%	−45.0%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−42.7%	−42.7%	+0.5%
2020-02-20	−42.3%	−42.9%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-07-07	+43.2%	+0.0%	+43.2%
2008-03-07	+41.6%	+0.0%	+41.6%
2008-06-30	+41.4%	+0.0%	+41.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−2.0%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.0%

n=20

Mar

60%

+0.3%

n=20

Apr

55%

+1.3%

n=20

May

55%

−0.4%

n=20

Jun

60%

+0.5%

n=20

Jul

55%

+3.1%

n=20

Aug

50%

+0.1%

n=20

Sep

55%

+2.0%

n=20

Oct

55%

+1.0%

n=20

Nov

60%

+3.0%

n=20

Dec

65%

+2.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	PETRO THOMAS M	director	Sale	5,000 @ $41.69	$208K	−9.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	47,239	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-13	Turner Michael L.	director	Sale	8,000 @ $43.03	$344K	−24.5% of holding	+2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	24,684	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Sale	13,933 @ $40.91	$570K	−11.2% of holding	+5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	110,513	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Santana Megan D	officer	Sale	2,787 @ $40.83	$114K	−7.2% of holding	+5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	35,975	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-08	Richardson Brian J	officer	Sale	2,090 @ $40.90	$85K	−7.9% of holding	+5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	24,228	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05	Keim Michael S	officer	Sale	7,245 @ $38.71	$280K	−9.8% of holding	−0.1%	not yet — horizon still open	66,979	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-27	Paquin Natalye	director	Sale	13,000 @ $37.80	$491K	−43.3% of holding	+0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	17,004	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-02	Paquin Natalye	director	Purchase	580 @ $34.58	$20K	+2.0% of holding	+1.8%	+20.5%	29,932	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Sale	12,277 @ $34.99	$430K	−10.9% of holding	−7.6%	+10.7%	100,570	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12	Keim Michael S	officer	Sale	6,696 @ $34.07	$228K	−9.8% of holding	−7.6%	+10.7%	61,357	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12	Santana Megan D	officer	Sale	2,522 @ $35.45	$89K	−7.3% of holding	−7.6%	+10.7%	32,011	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-12	Richardson Brian J	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $34.45	$52K	−6.8% of holding	−7.6%	+10.7%	20,446	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-10	Paquin Natalye	director	Purchase	455 @ $29.80	$14K	+1.7% of holding	+13.3%	+15.8%	27,515	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-10	Paquin Natalye	director	Purchase	200 @ $29.83	$6K	+0.7% of holding	+13.3%	+15.8%	27,060	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-27	PETRO THOMAS M	director	Sale	5,000 @ $31.75	$159K	−9.1% of holding	−6.6%	−0.0%	50,193	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	PETRO THOMAS M	director	Sale	4,000 @ $31.75	$127K	−6.8% of holding	−6.6%	−0.0%	55,193	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-04	Paquin Natalye	director	Purchase	682 @ $28.23	$19K	+2.6% of holding	+8.9%	+15.2%	26,788	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-25	Paquin Natalye	director	Purchase	730 @ $28.81	$21K	+2.9% of holding	−2.7%	−15.3%	26,029	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-19	Vazquez Anne	director	Purchase	1,250 @ $28.63	$36K	+25.0% of holding	+0.8%	−6.9%	6,250	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-03	Paquin Natalye	director	Purchase	618 @ $30.19	$19K	+2.5% of holding	+1.2%	−8.2%	25,244	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

212 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-08	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	13,933	124,446	Form 4
2026-06-08	Santana Megan D	officer	Option exercise	2,787	38,762	Form 4
2026-06-08	Richardson Brian J	officer	Option exercise	2,090	26,318	Form 4
2026-06-08	Richardson Brian J	officer	Option exercise	2,090	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	Santana Megan D	officer	Option exercise	2,787	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	13,933	0	Form 4
2026-05-05	Keim Michael S	officer	Option exercise	7,245	74,224	Form 4
2026-05-05	Keim Michael S	officer	Option exercise	7,245	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Withheld for tax	8,018	110,513	Form 4
2026-03-15	Keim Michael S	officer	Withheld for tax	4,348	66,979	Form 4
2026-03-15	Richardson Brian J	officer	Withheld for tax	2,973	24,228	Form 4
2026-03-15	Santana Megan D	officer	Withheld for tax	2,499	35,454	Form 4
2026-03-15	McCormick Patrick C	officer	Withheld for tax	1,249	13,023	Form 4
2026-03-15	Monios Eleni S	officer	Withheld for tax	444	2,904	Form 4
2026-03-15	Richardson Brian J	officer	Option exercise	1,020	1,020	Form 4
2026-03-15	Richardson Brian J	officer	Option exercise	722	1,444	Form 4
2026-03-15	Richardson Brian J	officer	Option exercise	5,444	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	Richardson Brian J	officer	Award / grant	1,920	1,920	Form 4
2026-03-15	Richardson Brian J	officer	Award / grant	4,476	4,476	Form 4
2026-03-15	McCormick Patrick C	officer	Option exercise	489	10,383	Form 4
2026-03-15	McCormick Patrick C	officer	Option exercise	716	11,099	Form 4
2026-03-15	McCormick Patrick C	officer	Option exercise	511	11,610	Form 4
2026-03-15	McCormick Patrick C	officer	Option exercise	3,422	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	McCormick Patrick C	officer	Award / grant	1,857	1,857	Form 4
2026-03-15	McCormick Patrick C	officer	Award / grant	4,332	4,332	Form 4
2026-03-15	Santana Megan D	officer	Award / grant	3,946	3,946	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	2,106	102,476	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	2,679	105,155	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	1,909	107,064	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	14,740	121,804	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Other acquisition	3,273	118,531	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	2,106	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	2,679	2,679	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	1,909	3,818	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Option exercise	14,740	0	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Award / grant	5,067	5,067	Form 4
2026-03-15	SCHWEITZER JEFFREY M	director	Award / grant	11,820	11,820	Form 4
2026-03-15	Santana Megan D	officer	Option exercise	661	32,875	Form 4
2026-03-15	Santana Megan D	officer	Option exercise	863	33,738	Form 4
2026-03-15	Santana Megan D	officer	Option exercise	621	34,359	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i