Issued 2026-09-16 at $11.73 · now $11.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UUUU has typically landed between $8.75 and $16.15 — a range of −25.4% to +37.7% from the issuance price $11.73.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,960 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-11-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($11.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UUUU has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $11.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $11.73 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $11.79 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $10.2–$13.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.75–$16.15
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,960 windows spanning 2006-11-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-24 | −73.8% | −73.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-25 | −73.8% | −73.8% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-26 | −71.9% | −71.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-03 | +277.8% | +0.0% | +277.8% |
| 2008-12-04 | +227.3% | −9.1% | +227.3% |
| 2008-12-10 | +154.5% | −9.1% | +227.3% |
4,960 overlapping windows · 2006-11-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+4.9%
n=20
Feb
45%
+3.9%
n=20
Mar
40%
−6.6%
n=20
Apr
45%
+4.2%
n=20
May
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Jun
30%
−6.8%
n=20
Jul
55%
+7.1%
n=20
Aug
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.5%
n=20
Oct
47%
+4.7%
n=19
Nov
32%
−5.1%
n=19
Dec
45%
+9.4%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | HANSEN BRUCE D | director | Purchase | 4,000 @ $12.70 | $51K | +1.3% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 313,844 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-07 | Bhappu Ross R. | director | Purchase | 74,000 @ $13.08 | $968K | +40.5% of holding | −6.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 256,583 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Sale | 15,000 @ $18.71 | $281K | −33.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,486 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $18.84 | $471K | −39.5% of holding | +1.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $21.01 | $42K | −1.3% of holding | −10.5% | −41.5% | 151,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $20.64 | $41K | −1.3% of holding | −10.5% | −41.5% | 153,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $20.27 | $41K | −1.3% of holding | −10.5% | −41.5% | 155,113 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Filas Barbara Appelin | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.51 | $98K | −3.0% of holding | −7.4% | −39.9% | 160,261 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $19.92 | $40K | −1.3% of holding | −7.4% | −39.9% | 157,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $19.89 | $40K | −1.2% of holding | −7.4% | −39.9% | 159,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $19.52 | $39K | −1.2% of holding | −7.4% | −39.9% | 161,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $19.15 | $38K | −1.2% of holding | −7.4% | −39.9% | 163,113 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Moore Curtis | officer | Sale | 10,000 @ $23.12 | $231K | −8.2% of holding | −16.9% | −49.2% | 112,415 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | BENNETHUM DEBRA | officer | Sale | 2,054 @ $15.21 | $31K | −10.8% of holding | +60.8% | −8.6% | 17,017 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Morrison Alex G | director | Sale | 24,869 @ $14.40 | $358K | −18.3% of holding | +47.2% | −0.3% | 110,878 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Morrison Alex G | director | Sale | 14,000 @ $14.18 | $199K | −9.3% of holding | +47.2% | −0.3% | 135,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | CARSTENS TIMOTHY JAMES | officer | Sale | 59,594 @ $14.93 | $890K | −35.7% of holding | +28.2% | −7.3% | 107,435 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $14.39 | $144K | −5.6% of holding | −1.6% | +12.9% | 167,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-24 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $13.61 | $204K | −7.8% of holding | +4.5% | +18.5% | 177,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | CARSTENS TIMOTHY JAMES | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $14.27 | $1.4M | −37.4% of holding | +9.0% | +23.6% | 167,029 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Chalmers Mark | director | Sale | 150,000 @ $15.60 | $2.3M | −14.1% of holding | −5.7% | +3.3% | 911,343 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | BENNETHUM DEBRA | officer | Sale | 668 @ $15.19 | $10K | −3.9% of holding | −5.7% | +3.3% | 16,349 | Form 4 · filed 34 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $15.26 | $229K | −7.2% of holding | −9.6% | +5.5% | 192,964 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-17 | Morrison Alex G | director | Sale | 38,739 @ $15.20 | $589K | −20.6% of holding | −10.8% | +0.2% | 149,747 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Moore Curtis | officer | Sale | 25,000 @ $15.58 | $390K | −17.3% of holding | −10.8% | +0.2% | 119,193 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 10,917 @ $15.28 | $167K | −5.0% of holding | −10.8% | +0.2% | 207,964 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Bovaird J. Birks | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $14.85 | $149K | −4.9% of holding | +50.8% | +20.4% | 195,617 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $15.24 | $30K | −0.9% of holding | +50.8% | +20.4% | 218,881 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $14.88 | $30K | −0.9% of holding | +50.8% | +20.4% | 220,881 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $14.51 | $29K | −0.9% of holding | +50.8% | +20.4% | 222,881 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $14.33 | $57K | −1.7% of holding | +48.8% | +20.0% | 224,881 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $13.98 | $35K | −1.1% of holding | +53.5% | +26.6% | 228,881 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $13.80 | $35K | −1.1% of holding | +53.5% | +26.6% | 231,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $13.72 | $34K | −1.1% of holding | +85.3% | +38.7% | 233,881 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $12.63 | $126K | −4.1% of holding | +62.8% | +47.7% | 236,381 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-10 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 7,500 @ $13.12 | $98K | −3.0% of holding | +52.8% | +54.2% | 246,381 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $12.20 | $31K | −1.0% of holding | +29.2% | +74.6% | 253,881 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $11.64 | $116K | −3.6% of holding | +38.9% | +93.7% | 266,381 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $12.07 | $60K | −1.9% of holding | +38.9% | +93.7% | 256,381 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $11.82 | $59K | −1.9% of holding | +38.9% | +93.7% | 261,381 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-28 | BAKKEN SCOTT | officer | Sale | 4,629 @ $12.00 | $56K | −4.1% of holding | +38.9% | +93.7% | 108,817 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-25 | DRERA SALEEM | officer | Sale | 266,595 @ $11.01 | $2.9M | −91.6% of holding | +51.2% | +98.3% | 24,474 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $9.62 | $96K | −3.4% of holding | +34.0% | +99.5% | 281,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $10.13 | $51K | −1.8% of holding | +34.0% | +99.5% | 276,382 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Sale | 15,000 @ $9.70 | $146K | −4.9% of holding | +34.4% | +103.4% | 291,382 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | CARSTENS TIMOTHY JAMES | officer | Sale | 250,000 @ $10.44 | $2.6M | −48.4% of holding | +34.9% | +132.3% | 267,029 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | BALLOCH KEVIN MARTIN | officer | Sale | 119,334 @ $9.98 | $1.2M | −100.0% of holding | +34.9% | +132.3% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | BALLOCH KEVIN MARTIN | officer | Sale | 91,426 @ $9.75 | $892K | −64.2% of holding | +34.9% | +132.3% | 51,074 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | CARSTENS TIMOTHY JAMES | officer | Sale | 210,612 @ $5.45 | $1.1M | −28.9% of holding | +19.4% | +173.4% | 517,029 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | NAZARENUS DEE ANN | officer | Sale | 3,585 @ $5.67 | $20K | −2.2% of holding | +5.4% | +154.7% | 160,222 | Form 4 · filed 9 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-28 | ESTABROOKE IVY | director | Sale | 4,400 @ $5.45 | $24K | −7.4% of holding | −0.6% | +157.0% | 55,160 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-19 | HANSEN BRUCE D | director | Purchase | 6,000 @ $4.25 | $25K | +2.1% of holding | +22.6% | +212.0% | 295,239 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Sale | 12,350 @ $4.10 | $51K | −17.6% of holding | +6.8% | +216.5% | 57,705 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-13 | Filas Barbara Appelin | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $4.15 | $42K | −5.9% of holding | +1.2% | +165.5% | 160,159 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-04 | BENNETHUM DEBRA | officer | Purchase | 3,700 @ $4.08 | $15K | ownership Δ n/a | −4.8% | +170.9% | 3,700 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-28 | SHUMWAY LOGAN | officer | Purchase | 7,500 @ $4.10 | $31K | +6.9% of holding | −3.9% | +171.4% | 115,676 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-02 | Bovaird J. Birks | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $5.44 | $54K | −5.3% of holding | −7.7% | −4.1% | 178,380 | Form 4 · filed 27 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | Morrison Alex G | director | Sale | 17,500 @ $5.72 | $100K | −9.6% of holding | +5.2% | +1.1% | 165,528 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
158 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Bhappu Ross R. | director | Withheld for tax | 14,375 | 242,208 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Duvenhage Werner | officer | Award / grant | 11,830 | 11,830 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Duvenhage Werner | officer | Award / grant | 10,796 | 10,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Sullivan Scott Edward | officer | Award / grant | 8,176 | 8,176 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | Sullivan Scott Edward | officer | Award / grant | 9,554 | 9,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Award / grant | 3,686 | 3,686 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | VAN AKKOOI MICHIEL | officer | Award / grant | 1,889 | 26,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | VAN AKKOOI MICHIEL | officer | Award / grant | 1,922 | 1,922 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | LONGENECKER NATHAN | officer | Award / grant | 981 | 83,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | LONGENECKER NATHAN | officer | Award / grant | 999 | 999 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | German Oscar Armando | officer | Award / grant | 6,630 | 16,184 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | German Oscar Armando | officer | Award / grant | 6,749 | 6,749 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-24 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Award / grant | 3,621 | 34,107 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Option exercise | 7,200 | 70,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Option exercise | 7,200 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moore Curtis | officer | Option exercise | 15,478 | 127,893 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moore Curtis | officer | Disposition | 15,478 | 112,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moore Curtis | officer | Option exercise | 8,288 | 120,703 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moore Curtis | officer | Disposition | 8,288 | 112,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moore Curtis | officer | Option exercise | 12,658 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Moore Curtis | officer | Option exercise | 22,222 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Chalmers Mark | director | Withheld for tax | 59,407 | 909,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Frydenlund David C. | officer | Withheld for tax | 35,490 | 629,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | LONGENECKER NATHAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 17,104 | 82,974 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Bovaird J. Birks | director | Withheld for tax | 17,023 | 183,003 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Moore Curtis | officer | Withheld for tax | 16,919 | 122,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | HIGGS DENNIS LYLE | director | Withheld for tax | 7,575 | 165,113 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | KAPOSTASY DANIEL | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,233 | 63,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | BONIFAS BERNARD | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,501 | 86,421 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | Bennett Nathan Reed | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,657 | 53,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | BAKKEN SCOTT | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,646 | 113,679 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | SHUMWAY LOGAN | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,589 | 122,497 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | DRERA SALEEM | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,287 | 25,196 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | BENNETHUM DEBRA | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,278 | 18,807 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | German Oscar Armando | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,165 | 9,554 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | VAN AKKOOI MICHIEL | officer | Withheld for tax | 461 | 25,021 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | VAN AKKOOI MICHIEL | officer | Award / grant | 15,447 | 15,447 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | BAKKEN SCOTT | officer | Award / grant | 5,260 | 119,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | BAKKEN SCOTT | officer | Award / grant | 6,054 | 6,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-27 | BENNETHUM DEBRA | officer | Award / grant | 5,451 | 5,451 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.