UTZUtz Brands, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Packaged Foodsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $14.26 · now $14.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UTZ has typically landed between $12.14 and $16.45 — a range of −14.8% to +15.4% from the issuance price $14.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,939 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-11-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($14.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UTZ has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $14.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$12.14worst · -14.8%$16.45best · +15.4%
  • now $14.26 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.13 (-0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.31–$14.95
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.14–$16.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,939 windows spanning 2018-11-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-10−34.2%−34.2%+0.4%
2026-02-11−32.1%−34.5%+0.0%
2026-02-09−31.3%−31.3%+1.7%
3 best
2026-06-22+105.7%+0.0%+105.7%
2026-06-18+101.1%−2.0%+101.1%
2026-06-23+100.0%+0.0%+100.0%

1,939 overlapping windows · 2018-11-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
88%
+1.9%
n=8
Feb
38%
−1.3%
n=8
Mar
50%
−1.9%
n=8
Apr
63%
+3.3%
n=8
May
38%
−4.7%
n=8
Jun
25%
+1.6%
n=8
Jul
75%
+13.1%
n=8
Aug
50%
+3.9%
n=8
Sep
25%
−4.9%
n=8
Oct
29%
−4.5%
n=7
Nov
57%
+4.0%
n=7
Dec
75%
+3.6%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$14$72025-12-31: 2 insider purchases, $14K — Shea Theresa Robbins, Sponaugle James2025-11-24: 2 insider purchases, $89K — Series U of UM Partners, LLC, Series R of UM Partners, LLC2025-11-21: 2 insider purchases, $795K — Series U of UM Partners, LLC, Series R of UM Partners, LLC2025-11-20: 2 insider purchases, $75K — Series U of UM Partners, LLC, Series R of UM Partners, LLC2025-11-18: 1 insider purchase, $70K — Lissette Dylan2025-11-07: 1 insider purchase, $79K — Lissette Dylan2025-11-03: 6 insider purchases, $1.5M — Series U of UM Partners, LLC, Lissette Dylan, Series R of UM Partners, LLC, Friedman Howard A …2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $78K — Choi Christina2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $78K2025-11: 14 open-market purchases, $2.6M2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $14K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Shea Theresa Robbins — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 6 days after the tradeofficer Sponaugle James — Purchase on 2025-12-31, filed 6 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Series U of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed same daytenPercentOwner Series R of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed same daytenPercentOwner Series U of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Series R of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Series U of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Series R of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lissette Dylan — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lissette Dylan — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Series U of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Lissette Dylan — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner Series R of UM Partners, LLC — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Friedman Howard A — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Shea Theresa Robbins — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Kelley William J. JR — Purchase on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Choi Christina — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-31Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerPurchase702 @ $9.86$7K+1.3% of holding+0.9%−31.1%55,667Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-12-31Sponaugle JamesofficerPurchase679 @ $9.86$7K+1.3% of holding+0.9%−31.1%52,017Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-11-24Series U of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase7,971 @ $9.51$76K+0.2% of holding+9.1%−30.9%3,570,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24Series R of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,406 @ $9.51$13K+0.2% of holding+9.1%−30.9%630,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-21Series U of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase70,379 @ $9.60$676K+2.0% of holding+3.4%−35.2%3,562,029Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-21Series R of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase12,420 @ $9.60$119K+2.0% of holding+3.4%−35.2%628,594Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-20Series U of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase6,650 @ $9.53$63K+0.2% of holding+3.9%−36.2%3,491,650Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Series R of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,174 @ $9.53$11K+0.2% of holding+3.9%−36.2%616,174Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-18Lissette DylandirectorPurchase7,010 @ $9.99$70K+4.6% of holding+1.7%−35.4%160,694Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07Lissette DylandirectorPurchase7,901 @ $9.99$79K+5.4% of holding−5.2%−34.9%153,684Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-03Series U of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase85,000 @ $10.48$891K+2.5% of holding−7.3%−27.0%3,485,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Lissette DylandirectorPurchase31,750 @ $10.58$336K+27.8% of holding−7.3%−27.0%145,783Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Series R of UM Partners, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase15,000 @ $10.48$157K+2.5% of holding−7.3%−27.0%615,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Friedman Howard AdirectorPurchase7,200 @ $10.58$76K+12.2% of holding−7.3%−27.0%66,298Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerPurchase965 @ $10.35$10K+1.8% of holding−7.3%−27.0%54,965Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Kelley William J. JRdirectorPurchase477 @ $10.47$5K+3.6% of holding−7.3%−27.0%13,758Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04Choi ChristinadirectorSale5,703 @ $13.63$78K−14.5% of holding−11.7%−40.7%33,710Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-07Werzyn William Jr.directorPurchase8,000 @ $11.81$94K+53.4% of holding+5.9%−34.2%22,970Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Lissette DylandirectorPurchase16,776 @ $11.88$199K+9.8% of holding+11.0%−31.7%188,178Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-05Friedman Howard AdirectorPurchase6,350 @ $11.85$75K+2.4% of holding+11.0%−31.7%272,079Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-05Whyte ChadofficerPurchase5,000 @ $11.96$60K+9.3% of holding+11.0%−31.7%58,717Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05Brown TimothydirectorPurchase5,000 @ $11.96$60K+8.0% of holding+11.0%−31.7%67,573Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-05Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerPurchase1,689 @ $11.84$20K+3.3% of holding+11.0%−31.7%52,960Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06CC Collier Holdings, LLCotherSale496,038 @ $13.40$6.6M−100.0% of holding+13.3%−12.3%0Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-28Arends Mitchell AndrewofficerPurchase2,911 @ $13.73$40K+4.9% of holding+8.9%−9.7%62,706Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-25Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerPurchase1,395 @ $14.31$20K+2.8% of holding+1.5%−14.4%51,271Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-24Friedman Howard AdirectorPurchase3,525 @ $14.16$50K+1.3% of holding+1.6%−11.4%265,729Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

161 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-23Brown TimothydirectorAward / grant16,92784,500Form 4
2026-04-23Choi ChristinadirectorAward / grant16,92750,637Form 4
2026-04-23Lissette DylandirectorAward / grant16,927160,730Form 4
2026-04-23Giordano Jason KdirectorAward / grant16,9273,840,293Form 4
2026-04-23Steeneck Craig D.directorAward / grant16,927312,000Form 4
2026-04-23Lindeman Bruce JohndirectorAward / grant16,92769,080Form 4
2026-04-23DEROMEDI ROGER KdirectorAward / grant16,92726,600Form 4
2026-04-23Werzyn William Jr.directorAward / grant16,92739,897Form 4
2026-04-23Fernandez Antonio F.directorAward / grant16,927263,533Form 4
2026-04-23Altmeyer John WdirectorAward / grant16,92784,500Form 4
2026-04-23Stewart Pamela JdirectorAward / grant16,92754,571Form 4
2026-03-09Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerAward / grant23,333110,524Form 4
2026-03-09Tewey Ryan PatrickofficerAward / grant4,29620,854Form 4
2026-03-09Friedman Howard AdirectorAward / grant132,498321,932Form 4
2026-03-09Sponaugle JamesofficerAward / grant20,195100,254Form 4
2026-03-09Stuart Jeremy KofficerAward / grant24,96267,469Form 4
2026-03-09Kelley William J. JRdirectorAward / grant2,98254,021Form 4
2026-03-09Kelley William J. JRdirectorAward / grant42,94096,961Form 4
2026-03-09Arends Mitchell AndrewofficerAward / grant26,013101,712Form 4
2026-03-09Bentz JenniferofficerAward / grant25,25185,000Form 4
2026-02-27Lissette DylandirectorWithheld for tax16,891143,803Form 4
2026-01-06Friedman Howard AdirectorWithheld for tax64,482329,653Form 4
2026-01-06Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerWithheld for tax6,39987,191Form 4
2026-01-06Sponaugle JamesofficerWithheld for tax5,77180,059Form 4
2026-01-06Friedman Howard AdirectorAward / grant159,007394,135Form 4
2026-01-06Sponaugle JamesofficerAward / grant19,58585,830Form 4
2026-01-06Stuart Jeremy KofficerAward / grant23,40642,507Form 4
2026-01-06Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerAward / grant21,53593,590Form 4
2026-01-05Tewey Ryan PatrickofficerAward / grant7,77916,558Form 4
2026-01-05Friedman Howard AdirectorAward / grant123,249235,128Form 4
2026-01-05Arends Mitchell AndrewofficerAward / grant24,39075,699Form 4
2026-01-05Bentz JenniferofficerAward / grant23,67659,749Form 4
2026-01-05Kelley William J. JRdirectorAward / grant37,28151,039Form 4
2026-01-05Shea Theresa RobbinsofficerAward / grant21,87972,055Form 4
2026-01-05Sponaugle JamesofficerAward / grant18,93666,245Form 4
2026-01-02Arends Mitchell AndrewofficerWithheld for tax10,55953,797Form 4
2026-01-02Friedman Howard AdirectorWithheld for tax7,067124,318Form 4
2026-01-02Friedman Howard AdirectorWithheld for tax6,418111,879Form 4
2026-01-02Friedman Howard AdirectorWithheld for tax6,021118,297Form 4
2026-01-02Bentz JenniferofficerWithheld for tax2,57338,940Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.