UTIUniversal Technical Institute, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Education & Training Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.88 · now $20.88 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UTI has typically landed between $16.90 and $26.45 — a range of −19.1% to +26.7% from the issuance price $20.88.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.88) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UTI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.88 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.9worst · -19.1%$26.45best · +26.7%
  • now $20.88 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.31 (+2.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.51–$23.1
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.9–$26.45
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−57.7%−57.7%+1.2%
2020-02-11−56.5%−56.5%+0.0%
2020-02-14−56.0%−56.0%+0.0%
3 best
2016-11-04+106.7%+0.0%+106.7%
2016-11-03+99.4%+0.0%+99.4%
2016-11-07+93.5%−1.2%+100.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Feb
65%
+3.9%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
45%
+0.8%
n=20
May
45%
+1.0%
n=20
Jun
55%
−0.4%
n=20
Jul
50%
+0.0%
n=20
Aug
30%
−4.3%
n=20
Sep
25%
−2.6%
n=20
Oct
55%
+3.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+12.6%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.8%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$51$202026-08-27: 1 insider purchase, $22K — DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS2026-08-25: 1 insider purchase, $22K — DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS2026-08-12: 1 insider purchase, $26K — DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS2026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $226K — DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS2026-06-29: 2 insider sales, $3.9M — Grant Jerome Alan …2026-06-22: 1 insider sale, $182K — Prehn Kevin2026-06-08: 1 insider sale, $124.2M — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $155K — Kline Christine2026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $549K — SRERE LINDA J2026-03-27: 1 insider sale, $888K — Kevane Christopher E.2026-03-17: 1 insider sale, $183K — Brochick George W.2026-03-06: 1 insider sale, $347K — Okinaka Shannon Lei2026-03-04: 1 insider sale, $616K — Hitchcock Todd A2026-03-02: 2 insider sales, $2.0M — Smith Sherrell …2026-02-27: 1 insider sale, $2.1M — Grant Jerome Alan2026-02-13: 1 insider sale, $53K — Frank Carolyn Ann2025-12-05: 1 insider purchase, $4.9M — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC2025-12-03: 2 insider purchases, $8.8M — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC …2025-12-02: 1 insider purchase, $11.4M — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC2025-12-01: 2 insider purchases, $5.7M — Coliseum Capital Management, LLC …2025-08-12: 2 insider purchases, $254K — DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS …2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $254K2025-12: 6 open-market purchases, $30.8M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $2.2M2026-03: 6 open-market sales, $4.0M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $549K2026-06: 5 open-market sales, $128.4M2026-08: 4 open-market purchases, $295K↑ buys↓ salesdirector DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS — Purchase on 2026-08-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS — Purchase on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS — Purchase on 2026-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Grant Jerome Alan — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Grant Jerome Alan — Sale on 2026-06-29, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Prehn Kevin — Sale on 2026-06-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Sale on 2026-06-08, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kline Christine — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SRERE LINDA J — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Kevane Christopher E. — Sale on 2026-03-27, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Brochick George W. — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Okinaka Shannon Lei — Sale on 2026-03-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Hitchcock Todd A — Sale on 2026-03-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Smith Sherrell — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Smith Sherrell — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Grant Jerome Alan — Sale on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Frank Carolyn Ann — Sale on 2026-02-13, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-05, filed same daydirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-02, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Coliseum Capital Management, LLC — Purchase on 2025-12-01, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS — Purchase on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMAS — Purchase on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-27DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMASdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $21.80$22K+0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open151,330Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-25DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMASdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $21.77$22K+0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open150,330Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-12DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMASdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $25.95$26K+0.7% of holding−19.7%not yet — horizon still open149,330Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMASdirectorPurchase8,000 @ $28.21$226K+5.7% of holding−18.9%not yet — horizon still open148,330Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-29Grant Jerome AlandirectorSale48,961 @ $41.63$2.0M−12.7% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open335,715Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-29Grant Jerome AlandirectorSale45,539 @ $41.15$1.9M−10.6% of holding+0.8%not yet — horizon still open384,676Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22Prehn KevinofficerSale4,545 @ $40.00$182K−14.4% of holding−10.5%not yet — horizon still open27,025Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorSale3,000,000 @ $41.40$124.2M−75.5% of holding+11.5%not yet — horizon still open971,440Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05Kline ChristineofficerSale3,500 @ $44.42$155K−7.5% of holding+12.1%not yet — horizon still open43,006Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-11SRERE LINDA JdirectorSale15,000 @ $36.59$549K−10.5% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open127,564Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-27Kevane Christopher E.officerSale23,654 @ $37.55$888K−22.1% of holding−16.7%not yet — horizon still open83,521Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-17Brochick George W.directorSale5,000 @ $36.59$183K−15.4% of holding−4.5%−57.2%27,516Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-06Okinaka Shannon LeidirectorSale10,000 @ $34.74$347K−33.5% of holding+5.4%−51.7%19,808Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-04Hitchcock Todd AofficerSale16,500 @ $37.33$616K−13.7% of holding+6.1%−53.9%104,084Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Smith SherrellofficerSale30,000 @ $36.99$1.1M−18.8% of holding+1.5%−55.8%129,375Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02Smith SherrellofficerSale22,671 @ $37.10$841K−37.7% of holding+1.5%−55.8%37,474Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Grant Jerome AlandirectorSale60,040 @ $34.95$2.1M−12.2% of holding+9.9%−53.9%430,215Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-13Frank Carolyn AnnofficerSale1,750 @ $30.08$53K−5.5% of holding+24.9%−27.8%30,272Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase191,830 @ $25.38$4.9M+5.1% of holding+6.3%+45.9%3,971,440Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-03Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase211,563 @ $25.01$5.3M+5.9% of holding+8.9%+65.8%3,779,610Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase143,673 @ $24.52$3.5M+4.2% of holding+8.9%+65.8%3,568,047Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase467,020 @ $24.40$11.4M+15.8% of holding+0.9%+71.6%3,424,374Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-01Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase171,430 @ $23.66$4.1M+6.3% of holding+8.8%+74.8%2,887,697Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorPurchase69,657 @ $24.11$1.7M+2.4% of holding+8.8%+74.8%2,957,354Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMASdirectorPurchase9,495 @ $25.40$241K+7.5% of holding+4.5%−6.0%136,765Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMASdirectorPurchase505 @ $25.39$13K+0.4% of holding+4.5%−6.0%127,270Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-27Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorSale500,000 @ $35.00$17.5M−15.5% of holding−10.5%−52.9%2,716,267Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-15Hitchcock Todd AofficerSale27,000 @ $33.35$901K−25.0% of holding−2.3%−27.4%81,021Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Hitchcock Todd AofficerSale500 @ $33.80$17K−0.6% of holding−2.3%−27.4%80,521Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13Brochick George W.directorSale6,000 @ $31.84$191K−15.6% of holding+1.4%−23.0%32,516Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorSale1,929,488 @ $32.95$63.6M−37.5% of holding−7.5%−30.7%3,216,267Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Grant Jerome AlandirectorSale56,492 @ $33.80$1.9M−14.1% of holding−7.5%−30.7%344,624Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Smith SherrellofficerSale50,000 @ $33.84$1.7M−54.8% of holding−7.5%−30.7%41,219Form 4 · filed 298 days after the trade
2025-05-12Kevane Christopher E.officerSale29,300 @ $34.12$1000K−28.4% of holding−7.5%−30.7%73,777Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-12Kevane Christopher E.officerSale100 @ $35.45$4K−0.1% of holding−7.5%−30.7%73,677Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-15Smith SherrellofficerSale97 @ $28.05$3K−0.1% of holding+10.2%−11.0%134,131Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-04-09Smith SherrellofficerSale208 @ $28.05$6K−0.2% of holding+21.8%−13.0%134,228Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-27Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorSale1,000,000 @ $25.35$25.4M−16.3% of holding+8.2%+2.8%5,145,755Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-21Smith SherrellofficerSale9,979 @ $26.95$269K−6.0% of holding+8.5%−9.0%157,684Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-21Smith SherrellofficerSale21 @ $27.51$578−0.0% of holding+8.5%−9.0%157,663Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-20Smith SherrellofficerSale10,249 @ $27.86$286K−5.8% of holding+0.7%−16.6%167,663Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-19Smith SherrellofficerSale36,646 @ $27.94$1.0M−17.1% of holding+4.6%−15.3%177,912Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-19Smith SherrellofficerSale2,800 @ $26.68$75K−1.3% of holding+4.6%−15.3%214,558Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-18Smith SherrellofficerSale9,500 @ $26.71$254K−4.2% of holding+11.4%−13.1%217,858Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18Smith SherrellofficerSale500 @ $27.27$14K−0.2% of holding+11.4%−13.1%217,358Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-17Smith SherrellofficerSale36,773 @ $26.68$981K−13.9% of holding+8.8%−15.2%227,358Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Brochick George W.directorSale8,000 @ $27.59$221K−18.6% of holding−3.1%−14.8%34,917Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10Coliseum Capital Management, LLCdirectorSale704,881 @ $28.20$19.9M−10.3% of holding+0.0%−15.7%6,145,755Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05LENNOX WILLIAM J JRdirectorGift4,600118,568Form 4
2026-05-27Lorenz Tracy KayofficerWithheld for tax18,72068,798Form 4
2026-05-27Lorenz Tracy KayofficerWithheld for tax3,35365,445Form 4
2026-05-25Lorenz Tracy KayofficerAward / grant42,24387,518Form 4
2026-03-05Slubowski Michael A.directorAward / grant3,56520,675Form 4
2026-03-05TRAMMELL KENNETH RdirectorAward / grant3,565136,083Form 4
2026-03-05LENNOX WILLIAM J JRdirectorAward / grant3,565123,168Form 4
2026-03-05DEVINCENZI ROBERT THOMASdirectorAward / grant3,565140,330Form 4
2026-03-05Sanchez Loretta LydiadirectorAward / grant3,56521,590Form 4
2026-03-05SRERE LINDA JdirectorAward / grant3,565142,564Form 4
2026-03-05Okinaka Shannon LeidirectorAward / grant3,56529,808Form 4
2026-03-05Brochick George W.directorAward / grant3,5654,279Form 4
2026-01-21Frank Carolyn AnnofficerWithheld for tax2,16232,022Form 4
2025-12-17Grant Jerome AlandirectorWithheld for tax9,276490,255Form 4
2025-12-17Schuman BruceofficerWithheld for tax2,53739,577Form 4
2025-12-17Hitchcock Todd AofficerWithheld for tax2,454120,584Form 4
2025-12-17Kline ChristineofficerWithheld for tax2,17146,506Form 4
2025-12-17DeTray Adrienne DawnofficerWithheld for tax1,76628,770Form 4
2025-12-17Kevane Christopher E.officerWithheld for tax1,670107,175Form 4
2025-12-17Smith SherrellofficerWithheld for tax1,321159,375Form 4
2025-12-17Prehn KevinofficerWithheld for tax92117,241Form 4
2025-12-17Lorenz Tracy KayofficerWithheld for tax88045,275Form 4
2025-12-17Smith SherrellofficerWithheld for tax83660,145Form 4
2025-12-17Frank Carolyn AnnofficerWithheld for tax77834,184Form 4
2025-12-11Grant Jerome AlandirectorWithheld for tax80,391530,860Form 4
2025-12-11Grant Jerome AlandirectorWithheld for tax19,232511,628Form 4
2025-12-11Smith SherrellofficerWithheld for tax19,129167,795Form 4
2025-12-11Grant Jerome AlandirectorWithheld for tax12,097499,531Form 4
2025-12-11Kevane Christopher E.officerWithheld for tax10,828114,739Form 4
2025-12-11Hitchcock Todd AofficerWithheld for tax9,467128,520Form 4
2025-12-11Smith SherrellofficerWithheld for tax7,21963,638Form 4
2025-12-11Smith SherrellofficerWithheld for tax4,587163,208Form 4
2025-12-11Kevane Christopher E.officerWithheld for tax3,352111,387Form 4
2025-12-11Hitchcock Todd AofficerWithheld for tax3,148125,372Form 4
2025-12-11Kevane Christopher E.officerWithheld for tax2,542108,845Form 4
2025-12-11Smith SherrellofficerWithheld for tax2,512160,696Form 4
2025-12-11Hitchcock Todd AofficerWithheld for tax2,334123,038Form 4
2025-12-11Prehn KevinofficerWithheld for tax2,31920,276Form 4
2025-12-11Smith SherrellofficerWithheld for tax1,77661,862Form 4
2025-12-11Prehn KevinofficerWithheld for tax1,69818,162Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.