Issued 2026-09-17 at $14.34 · now $14.34 (2026-09-17, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, USNA has typically landed between $12.10 and $16.15 — a range of −15.6% to +12.6% from the issuance price $14.34.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,004 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($14.34) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where USNA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $14.34 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $14.34 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $14.08 (-1.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $13.19–$14.97
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.1–$16.15
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-07-28 | −41.2% | −44.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-17 | −41.1% | −41.1% | +6.5% |
| 2026-07-20 | −41.0% | −42.6% | +3.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-23 | +56.3% | +0.0% | +56.3% |
| 2020-03-31 | +54.5% | −4.3% | +54.5% |
| 2014-10-06 | +53.4% | −1.3% | +53.4% |
5,004 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-17 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Neidig Brent | officer | Sale | 5,002 @ $19.45 | $97K | −100.0% of holding | +15.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Neidig Brent | officer | Sale | 909 @ $20.00 | $18K | −15.4% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,002 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-12 | Neidig Brent | officer | Sale | 1,602 @ $20.15 | $32K | −21.3% of holding | +10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,911 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | Jones Paul A. | officer | Sale | 5,561 @ $18.50 | $103K | −100.0% of holding | +15.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-01 | Fleming John Turman | director | Sale | 2,450 @ $17.93 | $44K | −36.7% of holding | +19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,230 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-28 | Jones Paul A. | officer | Sale | 6,813 @ $18.95 | $129K | −55.1% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,561 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | IIEKKING G DOUG | officer | Sale | 5,360 @ $18.75 | $101K | −100.0% of holding | +12.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Sale | 1,057 @ $18.66 | $20K | −100.0% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Foukas Joshua | officer | Sale | 3,791 @ $19.82 | $75K | −100.0% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Sale | 1,058 @ $17.00 | $18K | −100.0% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-03 | Benedict Peter | officer | Sale | 4,553 @ $19.38 | $88K | −100.0% of holding | −8.0% | −40.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-20 | Foukas Joshua | officer | Sale | 4,461 @ $21.34 | $95K | −100.0% of holding | −15.1% | −49.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Benedict Peter | officer | Sale | 2,673 @ $20.95 | $56K | −100.0% of holding | −2.7% | −13.1% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Mulham David Mulham | officer | Sale | 873 @ $21.00 | $18K | −9.4% of holding | −2.7% | −13.1% | 8,387 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Winssinger Frederic J | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $19.21 | $38K | −25.0% of holding | +7.9% | −17.7% | 5,986 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Sale | 1,057 @ $21.48 | $23K | −100.0% of holding | −5.0% | −13.8% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-31 | Fleming John Turman | director | Sale | 1,750 @ $19.79 | $35K | −27.7% of holding | −6.2% | −15.7% | 4,565 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-07 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Sale | 1,058 @ $29.10 | $31K | −100.0% of holding | +4.1% | −36.2% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-30 | Mulham David Mulham | officer | Sale | 3,515 @ $30.26 | $106K | −27.5% of holding | +4.0% | −36.6% | 9,260 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Fleming John Turman | director | Sale | 500 @ $29.66 | $15K | −10.6% of holding | +7.4% | −49.5% | 4,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-27 | Noot Walter | officer | Sale | 6,291 @ $30.29 | $191K | −100.0% of holding | −2.2% | −49.4% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | IIEKKING G DOUG | officer | Sale | 4,548 @ $29.61 | $135K | −100.0% of holding | −2.3% | −54.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Sale | 674 @ $29.82 | $20K | −100.0% of holding | −3.0% | −48.5% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
277 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Armstrong Kathryn Michelle | officer | Withheld for tax | 518 | 3,471 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Benedict Peter | officer | Withheld for tax | 176 | 422 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Benedict Peter | officer | Option exercise | 598 | 38,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Armstrong Kathryn Michelle | officer | Option exercise | 1,166 | 39,426 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Benedict Peter | officer | Option exercise | 598 | 598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Armstrong Kathryn Michelle | officer | Option exercise | 1,166 | 3,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Benedict Peter | officer | Option exercise | 598 | 598 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Armstrong Kathryn Michelle | officer | Option exercise | 1,166 | 3,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Pelosi Peggie | director | Withheld for tax | 935 | 6,061 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Ding Xia | director | Withheld for tax | 604 | 8,278 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | WOOD TIMOTHY E | director | Withheld for tax | 408 | 11,837 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Ding Xia | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Fleming John Turman | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Winssinger Frederic J | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Nixon J Scott | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | WOOD TIMOTHY E | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Pelosi Peggie | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 4,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Winssinger Frederic J | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 9,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Ding Xia | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 8,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 1,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Fleming John Turman | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 5,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Nixon J Scott | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 11,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Pelosi Peggie | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 6,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 1,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | WOOD TIMOTHY E | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 12,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Nixon J Scott | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 11,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Pelosi Peggie | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 6,996 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Fleming John Turman | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 5,862 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Ding Xia | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 8,882 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | WOOD TIMOTHY E | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 12,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-23 | Winssinger Frederic J | director | Option exercise | 1,632 | 9,733 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Fleming John Turman | director | Award / grant | 6,527 | 6,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | WOOD TIMOTHY E | director | Award / grant | 6,527 | 6,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Winssinger Frederic J | director | Award / grant | 6,527 | 6,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | FULLER GILBERT A | director | Award / grant | 6,527 | 6,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Nixon J Scott | director | Award / grant | 6,527 | 6,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Pelosi Peggie | director | Award / grant | 6,527 | 6,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-07 | Ding Xia | director | Award / grant | 6,527 | 6,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | Pelosi Peggie | director | Withheld for tax | 668 | 5,364 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.