USLM · TickerCove

USLMUnited States Lime & Minerals, Inc.Basic Materials · Construction Materialsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $114.13 · now $114.13 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, USLM has typically landed between $99.27 and $135.79 — a range of −13.0% to +19.0% from the issuance price $114.13.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($114.13) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$114.13 · 40% of range

$97.49 low$139.38 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+2.4%

typical move · IQR 13.4%

−13.0%worst (p90)+19.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where USLM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $114.13 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $114.13 (+0.0%)
typical $116.88 (+2.4%)
middle 50% $109.22–$124.54
90% range $99.27–$135.79

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-26	−41.1%	−41.1%	+0.0%
2008-09-25	−38.1%	−38.1%	+1.2%
2008-10-01	−36.4%	−39.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05	+69.6%	−0.9%	+69.6%
2009-03-06	+65.0%	+0.0%	+71.2%
2009-03-04	+60.6%	−5.0%	+60.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

+0.1%

n=20

Feb

40%

−1.0%

n=20

Mar

55%

+2.9%

n=20

Apr

70%

+2.6%

n=20

May

65%

+2.6%

n=20

Jun

65%

+2.9%

n=20

Jul

50%

+1.6%

n=20

Aug

45%

+0.3%

n=20

Sep

40%

−0.3%

n=20

Oct

55%

+3.3%

n=20

Nov

70%

+5.5%

n=20

Dec

60%

−0.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-09	Candou Holdings Ltd.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	20,000 @ $110.00	$2.2M	+0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	17,673,780	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-09-09	DOUMET ANTOINE M	director	Sale	20,000 @ $110.00	$2.2M	−18.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	90,000	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03	Duhe Sandra C	director	Sale	1,277 @ $120.45	$154K	−36.2% of holding	+12.4%	−20.2%	2,254	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04	BYRNE TIMOTHY W	director	Sale	11,504 @ $119.43	$1.4M	−11.7% of holding	+3.3%	−7.0%	87,208	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-04	BYRNE TIMOTHY W	director	Sale	596 @ $120.76	$72K	−0.7% of holding	+3.3%	−7.0%	86,432	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-03	BYRNE TIMOTHY W	director	Sale	26,034 @ $120.88	$3.1M	−20.7% of holding	+3.8%	−5.8%	99,923	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03	BYRNE TIMOTHY W	director	Sale	1,391 @ $124.18	$173K	−1.4% of holding	+3.8%	−5.8%	98,532	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24	Duhe Sandra C	director	Sale	3,157 @ $94.61	$299K	−59.7% of holding	+2.3%	+19.2%	2,128	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

52 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-01	DOUMET ANTOINE M	director	Option exercise	3,405	3,405	Form 4
2026-05-01	CARDIN RICHARD W	director	Award / grant	1,273	17,006	Form 4
2026-05-01	Hawkins Tom S Jr	director	Award / grant	1,273	11,356	Form 4
2026-05-01	Weirich Lila R	director	Award / grant	1,273	4,176	Form 4
2026-05-01	Wolkenstein Jon A	director	Award / grant	1,273	4,176	Form 4
2026-05-01	Duhe Sandra C	director	Award / grant	1,273	3,527	Form 4
2026-03-17	DOUMET ANTOINE M	director	Option exercise	12,000	0	Form 4
2026-03-17	DOUMET ANTOINE M	director	Option exercise	12,000	110,000	Form 4
2026-02-03	O'Neill Nathan	officer	Withheld for tax	166	7,703	Form 4
2026-02-03	Wiedemer Michael L	officer	Withheld for tax	165	6,360	Form 4
2026-02-03	Stone Timothy Wade	officer	Withheld for tax	136	4,840	Form 4
2026-02-03	Gagnon John J	officer	Withheld for tax	123	5,941	Form 4
2026-02-02	O'Neill Nathan	officer	Award / grant	426	8,129	Form 4
2026-02-02	Wiedemer Michael L	officer	Award / grant	426	6,786	Form 4
2026-02-02	Stone Timothy Wade	officer	Award / grant	336	5,176	Form 4
2026-02-02	Gagnon John J	officer	Award / grant	210	6,151	Form 4
2026-02-02	O'Neill Nathan	officer	Withheld for tax	105	7,869	Form 4
2026-02-02	Stone Timothy Wade	officer	Withheld for tax	100	4,976	Form 4
2026-02-02	Wiedemer Michael L	officer	Withheld for tax	95	6,525	Form 4
2026-02-02	Gagnon John J	officer	Withheld for tax	75	6,064	Form 4
2025-12-31	BYRNE TIMOTHY W	director	Award / grant	47,500	114,741	Form 4
2025-12-31	BYRNE TIMOTHY W	director	Withheld for tax	18,691	67,241	Form 4
2025-12-04	Hawkins Tom S Jr	director	Gift	100	10,083	Form 4
2025-12-04	Hawkins Tom S Jr	director	Gift	80	10,183	Form 4
2025-12-04	Hawkins Tom S Jr	director	Gift	100	180	Form 4
2025-09-05	BYRNE TIMOTHY W	director	Gift	500	85,932	Form 4
2025-05-02	DOUMET ANTOINE M	director	Award / grant	3,809	3,809	Form 4
2025-05-02	CARDIN RICHARD W	director	Award / grant	1,403	15,733	Form 4
2025-05-02	Duhe Sandra C	director	Award / grant	1,403	2,460	Form 4
2025-05-02	Weirich Lila R	director	Award / grant	1,403	2,903	Form 4
2025-05-02	Hawkins Tom S Jr	director	Award / grant	1,403	10,263	Form 4
2025-05-02	Wolkenstein Jon A	director	Award / grant	1,403	2,903	Form 4
2025-03-03	DOUMET ANTOINE M	director	Option exercise	12,000	98,000	Form 4
2025-03-03	DOUMET ANTOINE M	director	Option exercise	12,000	0	Form 4
2025-02-06	Stone Timothy Wade	officer	Gift	40	5,076	Form 4
2025-02-03	O'Neill Nathan	officer	Award / grant	426	7,974	Form 4
2025-02-03	Wiedemer Michael L	officer	Award / grant	426	6,620	Form 4
2025-02-03	Stone Timothy Wade	officer	Award / grant	336	5,116	Form 4
2025-02-03	Gagnon John J	officer	Award / grant	210	6,139	Form 4
2025-02-03	O'Neill Nathan	officer	Withheld for tax	124	7,548	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i