USFDUS Foods Holding Corp.Consumer Defensive · Food Distributionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.51 · now $92.51 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, USFD has typically landed between $82.36 and $106.27 — a range of −11.0% to +14.9% from the issuance price $92.51.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,570 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-05-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where USFD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$82.36worst · -11.0%$106.27best · +14.9%
  • now $92.51 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $94.28 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $89.29–$99.26
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $82.36–$106.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,570 windows spanning 2016-05-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−75.7%−75.7%+0.0%
2020-02-14−69.6%−69.6%+0.0%
2020-02-19−68.2%−75.6%+0.1%
3 best
2020-03-18+77.9%+0.0%+95.1%
2020-10-30+57.0%+0.0%+57.0%
2020-11-02+51.9%+0.0%+53.1%

2,570 overlapping windows · 2016-05-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
70%
+2.6%
n=10
Feb
80%
+4.7%
n=10
Mar
30%
−5.6%
n=10
Apr
80%
+3.9%
n=10
May
50%
−0.7%
n=10
Jun
55%
+2.2%
n=11
Jul
45%
−0.6%
n=11
Aug
45%
+2.3%
n=11
Sep
27%
−3.7%
n=11
Oct
40%
−1.1%
n=10
Nov
90%
+12.0%
n=10
Dec
60%
+3.6%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$111$702026-08-13: 2 insider sales, $1.3M — Taylor Randy J …2026-08-07: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Hancock William Spencer2026-03-30: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Locascio Dirk J.2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Locascio Dirk J.2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $6.3M — Works James David Jr …2025-11-11: 1 insider sale, $4.2M — Guberman Steven2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $4.2M2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $8.8M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.8M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $3.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Taylor Randy J — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Taylor Randy J — Sale on 2026-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Hancock William Spencer — Sale on 2026-08-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Locascio Dirk J. — Sale on 2026-03-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Locascio Dirk J. — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Works James David Jr — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Works James David Jr — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Guberman Steven — Sale on 2025-11-11, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-13Taylor Randy JofficerSale6,431 @ $110.40$710K−8.0% of holding−11.7%not yet — horizon still open73,618Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-13Taylor Randy JofficerSale5,199 @ $110.34$574K−6.6% of holding−11.7%not yet — horizon still open73,618Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07Hancock William SpencerofficerSale21,754 @ $108.29$2.4M−17.7% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open101,144Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-30Locascio Dirk J.officerSale20,000 @ $91.19$1.8M−15.8% of holding−12.2%not yet — horizon still open106,262Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25Locascio Dirk J.officerSale25,101 @ $96.59$2.4M−17.9% of holding+2.7%+2.0%115,077Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Works James David JrofficerSale46,446 @ $96.52$4.5M−34.5% of holding−3.7%−1.3%88,176Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Works James David JrofficerSale19,291 @ $96.53$1.9M−18.0% of holding−3.7%−1.3%88,176Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Guberman StevenofficerSale58,632 @ $72.00$4.2M−34.1% of holding+5.7%+6.2%113,410Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-10Locascio Dirk J.officerSale7,500 @ $80.00$600K−6.1% of holding−2.1%−17.4%115,077Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-15Locascio Dirk J.officerSale15,000 @ $75.00$1.1M−11.5% of holding−0.9%−19.3%115,077Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-08Locascio Dirk J.officerSale10,000 @ $70.00$700K−8.0% of holding+1.0%−19.9%115,077Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-18Bullock David WdirectorPurchase4,000 @ $71.06$284K+800.0% of holding−0.9%+3.4%4,500Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

193 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Flitman David EdirectorGift130,000130,000Form 4
2026-08-14Flitman David EdirectorGift29,000468,587Form 4
2026-08-14Flitman David EdirectorGift29,00029,000Form 4
2026-08-14Flitman David EdirectorGift130,000338,587Form 4
2026-08-13Taylor Randy JofficerOption exercise6,43180,049Form 4
2026-08-13Taylor Randy JofficerOption exercise5,19978,817Form 4
2026-08-13Taylor Randy JofficerOption exercise6,4310Form 4
2026-08-13Taylor Randy JofficerOption exercise5,1990Form 4
2026-06-05Taylor Randy JofficerWithheld for tax1,27173,618Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorWithheld for tax46740,956Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorOption exercise1,62441,423Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorWithheld for tax11739,510Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorWithheld for tax11739,799Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorOption exercise40639,916Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorOption exercise40639,627Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorOption exercise1,6240Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorOption exercise406406Form 4
2026-05-19TEHLE DAVID MdirectorOption exercise4060Form 4
2026-05-14Bullock David WdirectorAward / grant2,2049,010Form 4
2026-05-14GOTTSCHALK MARLA CdirectorAward / grant2,20416,482Form 4
2026-05-14ZIEGLER ANN ELIZABETHdirectorAward / grant2,20432,220Form 4
2026-05-14BACHELDER CHERYL AdirectorAward / grant2,20435,349Form 4
2026-05-14TEHLE DAVID MdirectorAward / grant2,20439,221Form 4
2026-05-14Pforzheimer Carl AndrewdirectorAward / grant2,20443,423Form 4
2026-05-14ROACH QUENTINdirectorAward / grant2,20416,482Form 4
2026-03-30Locascio Dirk J.officerOther acquisition42,732122,017Form 4
2026-03-30Locascio Dirk J.officerOther acquisition42,73262,732Form 4
2026-03-30Locascio Dirk J.officerGift85,46420,798Form 4
2026-03-27Flitman David EdirectorWithheld for tax74,397512,803Form 4
2026-03-27Locascio Dirk J.officerWithheld for tax20,146138,624Form 4
2026-03-27Locascio Dirk J.officerWithheld for tax20,146138,624Form 4
2026-03-27Flitman David EdirectorWithheld for tax15,216497,587Form 4
2026-03-27Guberman StevenofficerWithheld for tax12,079137,355Form 4
2026-03-27Hancock William SpencerofficerWithheld for tax10,865124,930Form 4
2026-03-27Works James David JrofficerWithheld for tax10,865108,961Form 4
2026-03-27Tonnison John AofficerWithheld for tax10,738135,714Form 4
2026-03-27Locascio Dirk J.officerWithheld for tax8,241130,383Form 4
2026-03-27Locascio Dirk J.officerWithheld for tax8,241130,383Form 4
2026-03-27Locascio Dirk J.officerWithheld for tax4,121126,262Form 4
2026-03-27Locascio Dirk J.officerWithheld for tax4,121126,262Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.