USBU.S. BancorpFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $59.73 · now $59.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, USB has typically landed between $52.83 and $67.65 — a range of −11.6% to +13.3% from the issuance price $59.73.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($59.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where USB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $59.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$52.83worst · -11.6%$67.65best · +13.3%
  • now $59.73 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $59.84 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $56.2–$63.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $52.83–$67.65
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.0%−47.0%+0.0%
2009-01-02−44.1%−48.4%+0.0%
2009-01-15−43.6%−43.6%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-05+77.9%−2.0%+85.0%
2009-03-06+73.3%+0.0%+88.8%
2009-02-20+51.2%−16.6%+51.2%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$99.6B
market cap
$5.00
EPS (TTM)
12.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-15
next earnings
Revenue$42.9B
'20'25
Net income$7.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$8.0B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr17.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.6%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.20
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 69 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $59.73$57.96$83.68
  • DCF (intrinsic)$74.23
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 16.4× · n=69$81.91
  • Analyst target · range $61.00–$75.00$68.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$59.73

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
−0.8%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.1%
n=19
Mar
47%
−2.2%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.8%
n=19
May
42%
−0.4%
n=19
Jun
63%
+0.1%
n=19
Jul
84%
+5.2%
n=19
Aug
42%
−1.0%
n=19
Sep
47%
+0.4%
n=19
Oct
72%
+2.0%
n=18
Nov
78%
+3.9%
n=18
Dec
50%
+1.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$65$442026-08-28: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Kedia Gunjan2026-07-23: 1 insider sale, $1.5M — CHOSY JAMES L2026-07-20: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Philipson Stephen L2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $1.9M — Dilip Venkatachari2026-04-21: 1 insider sale, $2.3M — Richard Jodi L2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Runkel Mark G.2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Barcelos Elcio R.T.2025-10-20: 2 insider sales, $7.8M — CECERE ANDREW, CHOSY JAMES L2025-10: 2 open-market sales, $7.8M2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $3.0M2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $2.3M2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $1.9M2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $3.8M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Kedia Gunjan — Sale on 2026-08-28, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer CHOSY JAMES L — Sale on 2026-07-23, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Philipson Stephen L — Sale on 2026-07-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Dilip Venkatachari — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Richard Jodi L — Sale on 2026-04-21, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Runkel Mark G. — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Barcelos Elcio R.T. — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector CECERE ANDREW — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer CHOSY JAMES L — Sale on 2025-10-20, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Kedia GunjandirectorSale27,267 @ $62.37$1.7M−6.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open426,262Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-23CHOSY JAMES LofficerSale22,968 @ $63.28$1.5M−8.3% of holding−5.8%not yet — horizon still open252,684Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-20Philipson Stephen LofficerSale36,906 @ $63.08$2.3M−33.0% of holding−0.8%not yet — horizon still open74,969Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-05Dilip VenkatachariofficerSale34,522 @ $55.52$1.9M−40.2% of holding−4.9%not yet — horizon still open51,292Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-21Richard Jodi LofficerSale40,000 @ $57.00$2.3M−16.2% of holding−9.4%not yet — horizon still open207,251Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Runkel Mark G.officerSale32,195 @ $60.65$2.0M−24.8% of holding−12.5%−4.8%97,728Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-03Barcelos Elcio R.T.officerSale17,204 @ $58.43$1.0M−16.5% of holding−7.0%−0.7%87,081Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-20CECERE ANDREWdirectorSale140,445 @ $46.34$6.5M−9.4% of holding−0.8%+16.0%1,360,414Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-20CHOSY JAMES LofficerSale26,909 @ $46.86$1.3M−10.6% of holding−0.8%+16.0%226,375Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21Badran SouheilofficerSale23,727 @ $46.34$1.1M−25.2% of holding−0.8%+12.8%70,346Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-21Stark Lisa RofficerSale19,903 @ $46.40$923K−32.1% of holding−0.8%+12.8%42,139Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-21Gillani AleemdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $37.32$187K+50.0% of holding+2.1%−4.1%15,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-07Roy ArijitofficerSale2,237 @ $43.67$98K−5.3% of holding−4.6%−2.0%39,994Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-06Richard Jodi LofficerSale30,000 @ $47.59$1.4M−23.1% of holding−3.7%−9.6%99,790Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05CHOSY JAMES LofficerSale21,451 @ $47.65$1.0M−9.8% of holding−0.9%−10.0%198,127Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04CECERE ANDREWdirectorSale102,044 @ $47.25$4.8M−7.7% of holding−1.6%−10.0%1,230,316Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03DOLAN TERRANCE RofficerSale66,317 @ $46.96$3.1M−24.0% of holding−2.2%−8.4%209,482Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-03Stark Lisa RofficerSale3,209 @ $47.10$151K−6.2% of holding−2.2%−8.4%48,710Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

183 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Kedia GunjandirectorOption exercise27,267453,529Form 4
2026-08-28Kedia GunjandirectorOption exercise27,2670Form 4
2026-07-23CHOSY JAMES LofficerOption exercise24,711275,652Form 4
2026-07-23CHOSY JAMES LofficerOption exercise24,7110Form 4
2026-07-21CHOSY JAMES LofficerGift3,969250,941Form 4
2026-04-23HERNANDEZ ROLAND AdirectorAward / grant3,88531,629Form 4
2026-04-23McKenney Richard PdirectorAward / grant2,56034,342Form 4
2026-04-23BAXTER WARNER LdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23McKenney Richard PdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23Mehdi Yusuf IdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23Reynolds Loretta EdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23Gillani AleemdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23HERNANDEZ ROLAND AdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23Bridges Dorothy JdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23Buse ElizabethdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23Colberg Alan B.directorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23WIEHOFF JOHNdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-04-23Ellison-Taylor Kimberly NdirectorAward / grant3,3553,355Form 4
2026-03-06Roy ArijitofficerAward / grant2,1752,175Form 4
2026-03-05Stark Lisa RofficerAward / grant15,76753,166Form 4
2026-03-05Stern John CofficerAward / grant25,227107,485Form 4
2026-03-05Badran SouheilofficerAward / grant19,291100,798Form 4
2026-03-05Barcelos Elcio R.T.officerAward / grant22,259119,922Form 4
2026-03-05CHOSY JAMES LofficerAward / grant22,259254,910Form 4
2026-03-05Kelso CourtneyofficerAward / grant13,35625,354Form 4
2026-03-05Kedia GunjandirectorAward / grant100,167426,262Form 4
2026-03-05Runkel Mark G.officerAward / grant13,356117,933Form 4
2026-03-05Roy ArijitofficerAward / grant13,35647,412Form 4
2026-03-05Richard Jodi LofficerAward / grant29,679247,251Form 4
2026-03-05Philipson Stephen LofficerAward / grant28,195111,830Form 4
2026-03-05Dilip VenkatachariofficerAward / grant17,80785,814Form 4
2026-03-02CECERE ANDREWdirectorWithheld for tax83,6841,404,824Form 4
2026-03-02Kedia GunjandirectorWithheld for tax28,703326,095Form 4
2026-03-02Richard Jodi LofficerWithheld for tax21,552217,572Form 4
2026-03-02Badran SouheilofficerWithheld for tax17,88481,507Form 4
2026-03-02CHOSY JAMES LofficerWithheld for tax17,227232,651Form 4
2026-03-02Barcelos Elcio R.T.officerWithheld for tax15,81897,663Form 4
2026-03-02Runkel Mark G.officerWithheld for tax8,701104,577Form 4
2026-03-02Dilip VenkatachariofficerWithheld for tax3,55668,007Form 4
2026-03-02Philipson Stephen LofficerWithheld for tax3,21883,635Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-10-102025-09-26$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-10-032025-09-05$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousepurchase2025-09-122024-10-29$1–15K
Ritchie John TorresHousepurchase2025-08-202024-09-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.