USAR · TickerCove

USARUSA Rare Earth IncBasic Materials · Industrial Materialsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.10 · now $15.10 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, USAR has typically landed between $10.44 and $23.98 — a range of −30.8% to +58.8% from the issuance price $15.10.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

774 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-07-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.10) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$15.1 · 12% of range

$11.9 low$38.68 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.5%

typical move · IQR 8.5%

−30.8%worst (p90)+58.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where USAR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.1 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $15.1 (+0.0%)
typical $15.17 (+0.5%)
middle 50% $14.53–$15.81
90% range $10.44–$23.98

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 774 windows spanning 2023-07-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-10-15	−55.9%	−55.9%	+0.0%
2025-10-14	−54.9%	−57.9%	+0.0%
2025-10-13	−54.1%	−59.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2025-09-12	+175.1%	−2.3%	+175.1%
2025-09-15	+173.2%	+0.0%	+181.5%
2025-09-16	+125.7%	+0.0%	+159.2%

774 overlapping windows · 2023-07-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

100%

+34.7%

n=3

Feb

33%

−10.3%

n=3

Mar

33%

−22.1%

n=3

Apr

100%

+49.6%

n=3

May

67%

−2.2%

n=3

Jun

67%

−0.0%

n=3

Jul

67%

−4.7%

n=3

Aug

100%

+9.3%

n=4

Sep

75%

+0.3%

n=4

Oct

100%

+4.4%

n=3

Nov

67%

−9.9%

n=3

Dec

67%

−1.7%

n=3

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-08	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Sale	13,000 @ $22.77	$296K	−40.9% of holding	−17.0%	not yet — horizon still open	18,783	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-29	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $21.44	$2.1M	+13.4% of holding	−4.3%	−40.5%	847,500	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-29	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Purchase	1,300 @ $22.60	$29K	ownership Δ n/a	−4.3%	−40.5%	1,300	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-14	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Sale	3,813,334 @ $5.70	$21.7M	−100.0% of holding	−25.2%	+2.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Sale	2,091,849 @ $15.75	$32.9M	−100.0% of holding	−19.2%	+6.1%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-13	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Sale	2,896,009 @ $5.50	$15.9M	−100.0% of holding	+2.8%	+13.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Sale	305,673 @ $5.50	$1.7M	−100.0% of holding	+2.8%	+13.8%	0	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

171 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Moraitis Thrasyvoulos	director	Award / grant	216,541	216,541	Form 4
2026-09-03	Moraitis Thrasyvoulos	director	Award / grant	226,373	226,373	Form 4
2026-09-03	Davis Michael Lawrence	director	Award / grant	6,959	6,959	Form 4
2026-08-19	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Award / grant	2,059	2,059	Form 4
2026-07-19	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	31,427	31,427	Form 4
2026-07-19	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	133,353	133,353	Form 4
2026-07-07	Caulfield Thomas	director	Award / grant	271	3,226	Form 4
2026-06-03	Caulfield Thomas	director	Option exercise	2,548	2,955	Form 4
2026-06-03	Senft Michael F	director	Award / grant	6,438	6,438	Form 4
2026-06-03	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Award / grant	6,438	6,438	Form 4
2026-06-03	Caulfield Thomas	director	Option exercise	2,548	0	Form 4
2026-06-03	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	6,438	6,438	Form 4
2026-06-03	SCHWETHELM OTTO C	director	Award / grant	6,438	6,438	Form 4
2026-06-03	Caulfield Thomas	director	Award / grant	6,438	6,438	Form 4
2026-06-03	Caulfield Thomas	director	Award / grant	407	407	Form 4
2026-05-21	Steele William Robert Jr	officer	Withheld for tax	33,825	42,002	Form 4
2026-05-20	Steele William Robert Jr	officer	Option exercise	45,496	45,496	Form 4
2026-05-20	Steele William Robert Jr	officer	Option exercise	30,331	75,827	Form 4
2026-05-20	Steele William Robert Jr	officer	Option exercise	30,331	60,661	Form 4
2026-05-20	Kern Paul J	director	Option exercise	18,199	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Option exercise	18,199	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Option exercise	18,199	19,499	Form 4
2026-05-20	Gutnick Mordechai Zev	director	Option exercise	18,199	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Gutnick Mordechai Zev	director	Option exercise	18,199	18,199	Form 4
2026-05-20	Senft Michael F	director	Option exercise	18,199	18,199	Form 4
2026-05-20	Senft Michael F	director	Option exercise	18,199	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	SCHWETHELM OTTO C	director	Option exercise	18,199	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	SCHWETHELM OTTO C	director	Option exercise	18,199	18,199	Form 4
2026-05-20	Kern Paul J	director	Option exercise	18,199	197,234	Form 4
2026-05-20	Kern Paul J	director	Option exercise	12,284	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	SCHWETHELM OTTO C	director	Option exercise	12,284	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Senft Michael F	director	Option exercise	12,284	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Senft Michael F	director	Option exercise	12,284	30,483	Form 4
2026-05-20	Gutnick Mordechai Zev	director	Option exercise	12,284	30,483	Form 4
2026-05-20	Gutnick Mordechai Zev	director	Option exercise	12,284	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Option exercise	12,284	31,783	Form 4
2026-05-20	Trabuco Carolyn	director	Option exercise	12,284	0	Form 4
2026-05-20	SCHWETHELM OTTO C	director	Option exercise	12,284	30,483	Form 4
2026-05-20	Kern Paul J	director	Option exercise	12,284	209,518	Form 4
2026-05-20	BLITZER MICHAEL	director	Option exercise	12,284	859,784	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i