URIUnited Rentals, Inc.Industrials · Rental & Leasing Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1006.25 · now $1006.25 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, URI has typically landed between $854.92 and $1204.74 — a range of −15.0% to +19.7% from the issuance price $1006.25.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1006.25) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where URI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1,006 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$854.92worst · -15.0%$1,205best · +19.7%
  • now $1,006 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $1,028 (+2.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $943.2–$1,112
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $854.92–$1,205
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-20−55.0%−55.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−54.8%−54.8%+1.1%
2020-02-21−53.2%−54.0%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+84.2%+0.0%+90.6%
2008-11-19+69.7%−10.9%+69.7%
2008-11-21+68.0%+0.0%+76.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$71.1B
market cap
$41.30
EPS (TTM)
27.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-28
next earnings
Revenue$16.1B
'20'25
Net income$2.5B
'20'25
Free cash flow$662M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr15.5%
'20'25
ROE · by yr27.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.84
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $1,006$-104.38$1,534
  • DCF (intrinsic)$8.61
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$1,266
  • Analyst target · range $903.00–$1,421$1,310
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$1,006

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+1.0%
n=18
Feb
74%
+3.9%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Apr
47%
+6.7%
n=19
May
53%
−2.6%
n=19
Jun
42%
+2.0%
n=19
Jul
68%
+5.3%
n=19
Aug
58%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
47%
+2.4%
n=19
Oct
61%
+4.0%
n=18
Nov
72%
+6.8%
n=18
Dec
67%
+3.1%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$1K$7092026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $1.7M — Grace William E.2026-04-27: 2 insider sales, $2.7M — PINTOFF CRAIG ADAM, Gross Joli L.2026-04-24: 2 insider sales, $23.0M — Flannery Matthew John, Limoges Andrew B.2026-02-03: 1 insider sale, $1.2M — Grace William E.2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Durand Michael D2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $3.2M2026-04: 4 open-market sales, $25.6M2026-07: 1 open-market sale, $1.7M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Grace William E. — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed same dayofficer PINTOFF CRAIG ADAM — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed same daydirector Gross Joli L. — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed same daydirector Flannery Matthew John — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed same dayofficer Limoges Andrew B. — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed same dayofficer Grace William E. — Sale on 2026-02-03, filed 6 days after the tradeofficer Durand Michael D — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Grace William E.officerSale1,500 @ $1133.15$1.7M−19.8% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open6,062Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-27PINTOFF CRAIG ADAMofficerSale2,466 @ $963.00$2.4M−14.3% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open14,774Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-27Gross Joli L.directorSale306 @ $954.99$292K−5.1% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open5,738Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-24Flannery Matthew JohndirectorSale22,768 @ $984.98$22.4M−18.5% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open99,980Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-24Limoges Andrew B.officerSale548 @ $977.86$536K−22.7% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open1,865Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-03Grace William E.officerSale1,498 @ $790.89$1.2M−17.9% of holding+7.8%+35.0%6,872Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2026-02-02Durand Michael DofficerSale2,490 @ $791.14$2.0M−25.0% of holding+11.1%+36.8%7,458Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Gross Joli L.directorSale345 @ $725.04$250K−6.5% of holding−3.3%+1.9%4,964Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-12Limoges Andrew B.officerSale708 @ $705.86$500K−26.9% of holding−1.8%+3.0%1,921Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-29Durand Michael DofficerSale1,100 @ $626.28$689K−11.2% of holding+7.3%+14.9%8,748Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-28PINTOFF CRAIG ADAMofficerSale4,449 @ $633.10$2.8M−23.0% of holding+6.8%+18.6%14,920Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-24Grace William E.officerSale1,100 @ $638.10$702K−13.8% of holding+6.7%+41.1%6,880Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Bruno Marc AdirectorAward / grant347,745Form 4
2026-05-08Jones Kim HarrisdirectorAward / grant2035,291Form 4
2026-05-08Bruno Marc AdirectorAward / grant2037,711Form 4
2026-05-08De Shon Larry DdirectorAward / grant2032,123Form 4
2026-05-08Kelly Terri L.directorAward / grant2036,990Form 4
2026-05-08Lopez-Balboa Francisco JdirectorAward / grant2031,605Form 4
2026-05-08Singh ShivdirectorAward / grant2037,803Form 4
2026-05-08Taussig Alexander R.directorAward / grant203260Form 4
2026-05-08MARTORE GRACIA CdirectorAward / grant2037,242Form 4
2026-05-08HEUER BRANDT JULIE MdirectorAward / grant203563Form 4
2026-05-04MARTORE GRACIA CdirectorDisposition2137,039Form 4
2026-03-31Bruno Marc AdirectorAward / grant517,508Form 4
2026-03-05Flannery Matthew JohndirectorWithheld for tax440122,748Form 4
2026-03-05PINTOFF CRAIG ADAMofficerWithheld for tax29717,240Form 4
2026-03-05Grace William E.officerWithheld for tax1917,562Form 4
2026-03-05Durand Michael DofficerWithheld for tax1698,267Form 4
2026-03-05Gross Joli L.directorWithheld for tax926,044Form 4
2026-03-05Leopold Anthony S.officerWithheld for tax734,310Form 4
2026-03-05Limoges Andrew B.officerWithheld for tax372,413Form 4
2026-03-04Flannery Matthew JohndirectorAward / grant2,583122,602Form 4
2026-03-04PINTOFF CRAIG ADAMofficerAward / grant1,30417,369Form 4
2026-03-04Flannery Matthew JohndirectorAward / grant1,017123,619Form 4
2026-03-04Durand Michael DofficerAward / grant9878,242Form 4
2026-03-04Grace William E.officerAward / grant9877,569Form 4
2026-03-04Gross Joli L.directorAward / grant4855,971Form 4
2026-03-04Flannery Matthew JohndirectorWithheld for tax431123,189Form 4
2026-03-04Leopold Anthony S.officerAward / grant4054,251Form 4
2026-03-04PINTOFF CRAIG ADAMofficerAward / grant37417,743Form 4
2026-03-04Grace William E.officerAward / grant3567,925Form 4
2026-03-04Durand Michael DofficerAward / grant3408,582Form 4
2026-03-04Flannery Matthew JohndirectorWithheld for tax317120,019Form 4
2026-03-04Gross Joli L.directorAward / grant3066,277Form 4
2026-03-04Leopold Anthony S.officerAward / grant2464,497Form 4
2026-03-04PINTOFF CRAIG ADAMofficerWithheld for tax23316,065Form 4
2026-03-04PINTOFF CRAIG ADAMofficerWithheld for tax20717,537Form 4
2026-03-04Limoges Andrew B.officerAward / grant2032,345Form 4
2026-03-04Limoges Andrew B.officerAward / grant1952,540Form 4
2026-03-04Grace William E.officerWithheld for tax1727,753Form 4
2026-03-04Durand Michael DofficerWithheld for tax1468,436Form 4
2026-03-04Gross Joli L.directorWithheld for tax1426,136Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-24$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-25$1–15K
Thomas SuozziHousesale2026-03-172026-02-18$15–50K
Julia LetlowHousesale2026-03-122026-02-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-06$15–50K
Julia LetlowHousepurchase2026-01-132025-12-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.