URGN · TickerCove

URGNUroGen Pharma Ltd.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-25

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-25 at $41.35 · now $41.35 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, URGN has typically landed between $31.14 and $59.87 — a range of −24.7% to +44.8% from the issuance price $41.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,340 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-04 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($41.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$41.35 · 74% of range

$16.42 low$50.29 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-25 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,391 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.7%

90% CI 51.5%–55.9%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.2%

typical move · IQR 28.9%

−24.7%worst (p90)+44.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where URGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $41.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $41.35 (+0.0%)
typical $40.84 (-1.2%)
middle 50% $34.87–$46.82
90% range $31.14–$59.87

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,340 windows spanning 2017-05-04 to 2026-09-25. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-04-28	−64.0%	−65.1%	+3.4%
2025-04-30	−63.6%	−66.2%	+0.0%
2025-04-29	−63.1%	−63.5%	+8.2%
3 best
2025-05-29	+245.1%	+0.0%	+274.6%
2025-05-21	+242.9%	−5.8%	+256.6%
2025-05-22	+238.0%	−3.7%	+264.5%

2,340 overlapping windows · 2017-05-04 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked

Pending catalysts

March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Single-arm Study of UGN-104 for the Treatment of Low-grade Upper Tract Urothelial Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)

Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+3.2%

n=9

Feb

33%

−3.4%

n=9

Mar

33%

−2.8%

n=9

Apr

56%

+7.9%

n=9

May

33%

−10.0%

n=9

Jun

80%

+32.6%

n=10

Jul

50%

+11.8%

n=10

Aug

60%

+4.0%

n=10

Sep

30%

−4.6%

n=10

Oct

56%

+2.3%

n=9

Nov

67%

+9.6%

n=9

Dec

33%

−7.4%

n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-08	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	1,519 @ $42.54	$65K	−2.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	53,141	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-08	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	871 @ $42.92	$37K	−1.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	59,882	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-20	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	60,677 @ $47.05	$2.9M	−50.7% of holding	−9.1%	not yet — horizon still open	59,086	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-09	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $40.00	$400K	−7.7% of holding	+13.9%	not yet — horizon still open	119,763	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-22	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $35.01	$350K	−7.2% of holding	+19.8%	not yet — horizon still open	129,763	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	5,222 @ $27.30	$143K	−3.6% of holding	+45.7%	not yet — horizon still open	139,763	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $30.00	$300K	−6.9% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	134,985	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	3,686 @ $19.69	$73K	−2.5% of holding	−0.8%	+119.9%	144,985	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	3,217 @ $19.69	$63K	−5.5% of holding	−0.8%	+119.9%	55,588	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	2,654 @ $19.69	$52K	−4.8% of holding	−0.8%	+119.9%	52,934	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2026-02-03	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	1,844 @ $19.69	$36K	−1.2% of holding	−0.8%	+119.9%	150,514	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	1,843 @ $19.69	$36K	−1.2% of holding	−0.8%	+119.9%	148,671	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-03	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	1,608 @ $19.69	$32K	−3.0% of holding	−0.8%	+119.9%	51,326	Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade
2025-11-19	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $25.00	$250K	−6.7% of holding	−12.8%	+1.2%	139,025	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-08	Degnan Chris	officer	Sale	2,203 @ $16.85	$37K	−49.1% of holding	+36.3%	+22.9%	2,280	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	1,520 @ $19.11	$29K	−3.4% of holding	−24.8%	−14.2%	43,305	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	871 @ $19.11	$17K	−0.6% of holding	−24.8%	−14.2%	149,025	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-11	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $17.69	$177K	−6.3% of holding	+2.2%	+9.3%	148,229	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	7,522 @ $19.14	$144K	−15.3% of holding	+1.9%	+5.8%	41,492	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-28	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	5,149 @ $19.14	$99K	−3.2% of holding	+1.9%	+5.8%	158,229	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-09	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	5,162 @ $7.37	$38K	−3.3% of holding	+103.9%	+214.1%	153,378	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-31	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	3,354 @ $11.14	$37K	−10.1% of holding	−8.7%	+75.1%	29,781	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	2,767 @ $11.14	$31K	−7.8% of holding	−8.7%	+75.1%	32,514	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	1,896 @ $11.14	$21K	−1.3% of holding	−8.7%	+75.1%	147,103	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	1,896 @ $11.14	$21K	−1.3% of holding	−8.7%	+75.1%	148,540	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	1,258 @ $11.14	$14K	−4.5% of holding	−8.7%	+75.1%	26,468	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-31	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	759 @ $11.14	$8K	−0.5% of holding	−8.7%	+75.1%	145,666	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-09-09	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Sale	1,521 @ $13.08	$20K	−5.7% of holding	−7.0%	−21.9%	25,226	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-09-09	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	859 @ $13.08	$11K	−0.6% of holding	−7.0%	−21.9%	145,091	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2024-06-10	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	5,153 @ $13.08	$67K	−3.4% of holding	+28.0%	−18.3%	144,284	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-03-18	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Sale	12,000 @ $14.05	$169K	−7.9% of holding	+0.6%	−21.6%	139,437	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

141 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-07	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	1,667	0	Form 4
2026-09-07	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	3,334	0	Form 4
2026-09-07	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	3,334	54,660	Form 4
2026-09-07	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	1,667	60,753	Form 4
2026-09-07	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	1,667	60,753	Form 4
2026-09-07	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	3,334	54,660	Form 4
2026-09-07	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	3,334	54,660	Form 4
2026-09-07	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	1,667	60,753	Form 4
2026-09-07	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	1,667	60,753	Form 4
2026-09-07	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	3,334	54,660	Form 4
2026-08-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	0	Form 4
2026-08-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-08-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-08-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-08-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-08-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-08-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	Wildman Daniel George	director	Award / grant	8,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	Holden Stuart	director	Award / grant	20,000	20,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Award / grant	8,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	WEN LEANA	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	WEN LEANA	director	Award / grant	8,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	Wildman Daniel George	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	BUTITTA CYNTHIA M	director	Award / grant	10,000	10,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	BUTITTA CYNTHIA M	director	Award / grant	8,000	8,000	Form 4
2026-06-22	Belldegrun Arie	director	Award / grant	20,000	20,000	Form 4
2026-06-08	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	10,000	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	10,000	144,985	Form 4
2026-06-08	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	10,000	144,985	Form 4
2026-05-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	2,000	Form 4
2026-05-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	6,000	Form 4
2026-05-26	Robinson James A. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,000	6,000	Form 4
2026-01-31	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	6,666	13,334	Form 4
2026-01-31	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	5,500	5,500	Form 4
2026-01-31	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	3,333	6,667	Form 4
2026-01-31	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Option exercise	6,667	0	Form 4
2026-01-31	Smith Jason Drew	officer	Award / grant	32,609	32,609	Form 4
2026-01-31	Degnan Chris	officer	Award / grant	32,609	32,609	Form 4
2026-01-31	Schoenberg Mark	officer	Option exercise	3,333	3,334	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-2610% elapsed2026-10-26

Logged immutably 2026-09-26; scored automatically on 2026-10-26 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Pending catalysts

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i