Issued 2026-08-13 at $49.00 · now $48.12 (2026-08-13, −1.8% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-13 close, URGN has typically landed between $36.90 and $70.95 — a range of −24.7% to +44.8% from the issuance price $49.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,310 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-04 – 2026-07-15 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.8% (90% CI 51.6–56.0%, ≈1,400 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-13 issuance close ($49.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-11, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where URGN has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-13 close of $49 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $48.12 (-1.8%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $48.6 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $41.63–$55.57
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.9–$70.95
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-04-28 | −64.0% | −65.1% | +3.4% |
| 2025-04-30 | −63.6% | −66.2% | +0.0% |
| 2025-04-29 | −63.1% | −63.5% | +8.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-29 | +245.1% | +0.0% | +274.6% |
| 2025-05-21 | +242.9% | −5.8% | +256.6% |
| 2025-05-22 | +238.0% | −3.7% | +264.5% |
2,310 overlapping windows · 2017-05-04 – 2026-08-13 · not cherry-picked
Pending catalysts
- March 2027 — Trial primary completion: Phase 3 primary completion: A Phase 3 Single-arm Study of UGN-104 for the Treatment of Low-grade Upper Tract Urothelial Cancer (source, as of 2026-08-14)
Public, scheduled events — dated attention, not a prediction of the outcome. See the FDA catalysts page for the historical base rate.
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Company insiders iOpen-market share purchases and sales by the company's own officers and directors, by filing date.
Last 90 days · as of 2026-08-13 · point-in-time by filing date
No insider transactions on record in the last 90 days.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. Full terms.