URG · TickerCove

URGUr-Energy Inc.Energy · Uraniumas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $1.20 · now $1.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, URG has typically landed between $0.93 and $1.54 — a range of −22.4% to +28.0% from the issuance price $1.20.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,544 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-07-24 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($1.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$1.2 · 6% of range

$1.14 low$2.1 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.5%

typical move · IQR 21.2%

−22.4%worst (p90)+28.0%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where URG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $1.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $1.2 (+0.0%)
typical $1.19 (-0.5%)
middle 50% $1.07–$1.32
90% range $0.9317–$1.54

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,544 windows spanning 2008-07-24 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-08	−68.5%	−68.5%	+0.0%
2008-09-09	−66.7%	−66.7%	+0.0%
2008-09-05	−64.0%	−64.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23	+115.6%	+0.0%	+115.6%
2009-04-13	+101.8%	+0.0%	+101.8%
2008-10-27	+89.6%	+0.0%	+110.0%

4,544 overlapping windows · 2008-07-24 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

56%

+7.8%

n=18

Feb

28%

−0.7%

n=18

Mar

44%

−3.4%

n=18

Apr

56%

+5.8%

n=18

May

50%

+2.4%

n=18

Jun

33%

−1.9%

n=18

Jul

50%

−0.6%

n=18

Aug

47%

+1.5%

n=19

Sep

42%

−3.1%

n=19

Oct

39%

+0.8%

n=18

Nov

50%

+2.4%

n=18

Dec

61%

+5.6%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Walle Jade	officer	Purchase	75,581 @ $1.29	$97K	+30.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	327,481	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-25	Parker Thomas H	director	Sale	87,858 @ $1.48	$130K	−13.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	580,884	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-25	HUBER GARY C	director	Sale	87,858 @ $1.48	$130K	−13.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	558,016	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24	SMITH ROGER L.	officer	Sale	103,536 @ $1.43	$148K	−13.7% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	651,562	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24	CASH JOHN	director	Sale	77,751 @ $1.41	$110K	−10.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	696,264	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24	Chang Robby Sai Kit	director	Sale	75,588 @ $1.41	$107K	−43.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	96,449	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-24	RITCHIE DAVID A.	officer	Purchase	10,000 @ $1.42	$14K	ownership Δ n/a	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	10,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-21	HATTEN STEVEN M.	officer	Sale	81,576 @ $1.39	$113K	−19.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	345,764	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-08-21	WALKER KATHY E	director	Sale	72,838 @ $1.38	$101K	−11.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	587,267	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-18	Walle Jade	officer	Purchase	107,900 @ $1.39	$150K	+74.9% of holding	+10.5%	not yet — horizon still open	251,900	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-20	Walle Jade	officer	Purchase	144,000 @ $1.27	$183K	ownership Δ n/a	+15.9%	+22.5%	144,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14	Gili Matthew David	officer	Purchase	155,000 @ $1.21	$188K	ownership Δ n/a	+9.1%	+16.2%	155,000	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-12	HUBER GARY C	director	Sale	50,000 @ $1.29	$65K	−8.5% of holding	−2.1%	+17.9%	541,609	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	CASH JOHN	director	Sale	189,303 @ $1.27	$240K	−22.3% of holding	−4.7%	+30.6%	660,968	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10	GOPLERUD PENNE A	officer	Sale	226,630 @ $1.29	$292K	−34.5% of holding	+2.9%	+33.2%	430,608	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	HUBER GARY C	director	Sale	50,000 @ $1.29	$64K	−10.5% of holding	+2.9%	+33.2%	427,695	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-06	WALKER KATHY E	director	Sale	74,727 @ $1.32	$99K	−11.9% of holding	+5.9%	+32.4%	555,840	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-25	Chang Robby Sai Kit	director	Sale	213,914 @ $1.75	$375K	−71.8% of holding	−11.5%	−15.8%	84,179	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-24	SMITH ROGER L.	officer	Sale	252,087 @ $1.68	$424K	−28.5% of holding	−7.1%	−11.0%	632,175	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-25	HATTEN STEVEN M.	officer	Sale	198,618 @ $1.34	$267K	−37.9% of holding	+17.6%	+18.2%	324,775	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-17	SCHIERMAN RYAN S.	officer	Sale	483 @ $1.17	$566	−100.0% of holding	−3.6%	−9.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

118 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-25	Parker Thomas H	director	Option exercise	87,858	668,742	Form 4
2026-08-25	HUBER GARY C	director	Option exercise	87,858	645,874	Form 4
2026-08-25	HUBER GARY C	director	Option exercise	87,858	340,134	Form 4
2026-08-25	Parker Thomas H	director	Option exercise	87,858	340,134	Form 4
2026-08-24	SMITH ROGER L.	officer	Option exercise	103,536	755,098	Form 4
2026-08-24	Chang Robby Sai Kit	director	Option exercise	87,858	172,037	Form 4
2026-08-24	CASH JOHN	director	Option exercise	77,751	774,015	Form 4
2026-08-24	Chang Robby Sai Kit	director	Option exercise	87,858	340,134	Form 4
2026-08-24	SMITH ROGER L.	officer	Option exercise	103,536	519,726	Form 4
2026-08-24	CASH JOHN	director	Option exercise	77,751	1,040,617	Form 4
2026-08-21	WALKER KATHY E	director	Option exercise	87,858	660,105	Form 4
2026-08-21	HATTEN STEVEN M.	officer	Option exercise	81,576	427,340	Form 4
2026-08-21	WALKER KATHY E	director	Option exercise	87,858	340,134	Form 4
2026-08-21	HATTEN STEVEN M.	officer	Option exercise	81,576	526,572	Form 4
2026-01-12	RITCHIE DAVID A.	officer	Award / grant	120,000	120,000	Form 4
2025-12-24	Chang Robby Sai Kit	director	Disposition	16,407	84,179	Form 4
2025-12-24	Chang Robby Sai Kit	director	Option exercise	16,407	100,586	Form 4
2025-12-24	Chang Robby Sai Kit	director	Option exercise	16,407	45,804	Form 4
2025-12-23	CASH JOHN	director	Option exercise	35,296	696,264	Form 4
2025-12-23	HATTEN STEVEN M.	officer	Option exercise	20,989	345,764	Form 4
2025-12-23	SMITH ROGER L.	officer	Option exercise	19,387	651,562	Form 4
2025-12-23	GOPLERUD PENNE A	officer	Option exercise	17,966	448,574	Form 4
2025-12-23	HUBER GARY C	director	Option exercise	16,407	558,016	Form 4
2025-12-23	WALKER KATHY E	director	Option exercise	16,407	572,247	Form 4
2025-12-23	Parker Thomas H	director	Option exercise	16,407	580,884	Form 4
2025-12-23	SMITH ROGER L.	officer	Option exercise	27,384	73,367	Form 4
2025-12-23	CASH JOHN	director	Option exercise	46,658	125,000	Form 4
2025-12-23	GOPLERUD PENNE A	officer	Option exercise	25,376	67,991	Form 4
2025-12-23	Parker Thomas H	director	Option exercise	16,407	45,804	Form 4
2025-12-23	HATTEN STEVEN M.	officer	Option exercise	27,745	74,332	Form 4
2025-12-23	HUBER GARY C	director	Option exercise	16,407	45,804	Form 4
2025-12-23	WALKER KATHY E	director	Option exercise	16,407	45,804	Form 4
2025-12-22	GOPLERUD PENNE A	officer	Award / grant	34,826	93,367	Form 4
2025-12-22	Gili Matthew David	officer	Award / grant	244,275	419,275	Form 4
2025-12-22	Gili Matthew David	officer	Award / grant	61,069	61,069	Form 4
2025-12-22	SCHIERMAN RYAN S.	officer	Award / grant	86,685	269,236	Form 4
2025-12-22	SCHIERMAN RYAN S.	officer	Award / grant	21,670	42,306	Form 4
2025-12-22	PRESSEY JOHN PAUL	director	Award / grant	91,602	383,204	Form 4
2025-12-22	PRESSEY JOHN PAUL	director	Award / grant	22,902	45,804	Form 4
2025-12-22	SMITH ROGER L.	officer	Award / grant	150,312	623,262	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i