Issued 2026-09-16 at $77.08 · now $77.08 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, URBN has typically landed between $65.80 and $92.37 — a range of −14.6% to +19.8% from the issuance price $77.08.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($77.08) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where URBN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $77.08 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $77.08 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $77.89 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $72.88–$82.89
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $65.8–$92.37
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −52.6% | −52.6% | +1.4% |
| 2020-02-21 | −51.6% | −53.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −47.2% | −52.6% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-07-28 | +60.4% | +0.0% | +60.4% |
| 2024-11-20 | +49.3% | +0.0% | +49.4% |
| 2020-07-30 | +46.5% | +0.0% | +55.4% |
4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
39%
−0.5%
n=18
Feb
58%
+3.7%
n=19
Mar
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Apr
47%
+1.8%
n=19
May
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Jul
79%
+5.4%
n=19
Aug
47%
+2.8%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.0%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.3%
n=18
Nov
61%
+5.7%
n=18
Dec
50%
−1.1%
n=18
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Marein-Efron Melanie | director | Sale | 5,700 @ $80.75 | $460K | −33.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 11,323 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Egan Mary | director | Sale | 650 @ $78.48 | $51K | −4.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 15,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Conforti Frank | officer | Sale | 9,391 @ $73.19 | $687K | −11.6% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,698 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Hayne Azeez | officer | Sale | 8,733 @ $73.18 | $639K | −100.0% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Marein-Efron Melanie | director | Sale | 5,036 @ $73.42 | $370K | −22.8% of holding | +0.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,023 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Hayne Azeez | officer | Sale | 5,720 @ $66.00 | $378K | −39.6% of holding | +4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Smith Tricia D | officer | Sale | 5,000 @ $64.81 | $324K | −49.6% of holding | +1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,077 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 9,120 @ $70.40 | $642K | −0.1% of holding | −5.0% | +2.3% | 17,450,932 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 7,980 @ $70.40 | $562K | −0.4% of holding | −5.0% | +2.3% | 1,935,212 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 7,980 @ $70.40 | $562K | −0.4% of holding | −5.0% | +2.3% | 1,935,212 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 1,547 @ $71.07 | $110K | −0.0% of holding | −5.0% | +2.3% | 17,449,385 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 1,353 @ $71.07 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | −5.0% | +2.3% | 1,933,859 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-20 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 1,353 @ $71.07 | $96K | −0.1% of holding | −5.0% | +2.3% | 1,933,859 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 2,497 @ $70.10 | $175K | −0.0% of holding | −3.1% | +2.7% | 17,460,052 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 2,185 @ $70.10 | $153K | −0.1% of holding | −3.1% | +2.7% | 1,943,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 2,185 @ $70.10 | $153K | −0.1% of holding | −3.1% | +2.7% | 1,943,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 7,414 @ $70.77 | $525K | −0.0% of holding | −3.2% | +2.6% | 17,465,802 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 6,487 @ $70.77 | $459K | −0.3% of holding | −3.2% | +2.6% | 1,948,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 6,487 @ $70.77 | $459K | −0.3% of holding | −3.2% | +2.6% | 1,948,223 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 3,253 @ $71.20 | $232K | −0.0% of holding | −3.2% | +2.6% | 17,462,549 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 2,846 @ $71.20 | $203K | −0.1% of holding | −3.2% | +2.6% | 1,945,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 2,846 @ $71.20 | $203K | −0.1% of holding | −3.2% | +2.6% | 1,945,377 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 10,623 @ $70.20 | $746K | −0.1% of holding | −7.9% | −1.3% | 17,473,260 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 9,296 @ $70.20 | $653K | −0.5% of holding | −7.9% | −1.3% | 1,954,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 9,296 @ $70.20 | $653K | −0.5% of holding | −7.9% | −1.3% | 1,954,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 44 @ $71.43 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −7.9% | −1.3% | 17,473,216 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 37 @ $71.43 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −7.9% | −1.3% | 1,954,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 37 @ $71.43 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −7.9% | −1.3% | 1,954,710 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 10,667 @ $70.51 | $752K | −0.1% of holding | −5.2% | −0.6% | 17,483,883 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 9,333 @ $70.51 | $658K | −0.5% of holding | −5.2% | −0.6% | 1,964,043 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 9,333 @ $70.51 | $658K | −0.5% of holding | −5.2% | −0.6% | 1,964,043 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 5,718 @ $70.58 | $404K | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | +3.7% | 17,494,824 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 5,003 @ $70.58 | $353K | −0.3% of holding | −3.6% | +3.7% | 1,973,614 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 5,003 @ $70.58 | $353K | −0.3% of holding | −3.6% | +3.7% | 1,973,614 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 274 @ $71.25 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | +3.7% | 17,494,550 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 238 @ $71.25 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | +3.7% | 1,973,376 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-12 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 238 @ $71.25 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | −3.6% | +3.7% | 1,973,376 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 8,031 @ $70.77 | $568K | −0.0% of holding | −5.8% | +3.0% | 17,503,178 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 7,028 @ $70.77 | $497K | −0.4% of holding | −5.8% | +3.0% | 1,980,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 7,028 @ $70.77 | $497K | −0.4% of holding | −5.8% | +3.0% | 1,980,922 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 2,636 @ $71.39 | $188K | −0.0% of holding | −5.8% | +3.0% | 17,500,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 2,305 @ $71.39 | $165K | −0.1% of holding | −5.8% | +3.0% | 1,978,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-11 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 2,305 @ $71.39 | $165K | −0.1% of holding | −5.8% | +3.0% | 1,978,617 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 6,643 @ $71.51 | $475K | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | +3.4% | 17,511,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 5,812 @ $71.51 | $416K | −0.3% of holding | −5.7% | +3.4% | 1,987,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 5,812 @ $71.51 | $416K | −0.3% of holding | −5.7% | +3.4% | 1,987,950 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 4,024 @ $70.50 | $284K | −0.0% of holding | −5.7% | +3.4% | 17,517,852 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 3,521 @ $70.50 | $248K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | +3.4% | 1,993,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 3,521 @ $70.50 | $248K | −0.2% of holding | −5.7% | +3.4% | 1,993,762 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 9,470 @ $71.20 | $674K | −0.1% of holding | −6.2% | −1.0% | 17,523,073 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 8,287 @ $71.20 | $590K | −0.4% of holding | −6.2% | −1.0% | 1,998,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 8,287 @ $71.20 | $590K | −0.4% of holding | −6.2% | −1.0% | 1,998,329 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 1,197 @ $72.30 | $87K | −0.0% of holding | −6.2% | −1.0% | 17,521,876 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 1,046 @ $72.30 | $76K | −0.1% of holding | −6.2% | −1.0% | 1,997,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-09 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 1,046 @ $72.30 | $76K | −0.1% of holding | −6.2% | −1.0% | 1,997,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 6,231 @ $72.40 | $451K | −0.0% of holding | −7.2% | +2.9% | 17,532,543 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 5,452 @ $72.40 | $395K | −0.3% of holding | −7.2% | +2.9% | 2,006,616 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | Hayne Margaret | director | Sale | 5,452 @ $72.40 | $395K | −0.3% of holding | −7.2% | +2.9% | 2,006,616 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 2,900 @ $71.83 | $208K | −0.0% of holding | −7.2% | +2.9% | 17,538,774 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-06 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Sale | 2,537 @ $71.83 | $182K | −0.1% of holding | −7.2% | +2.9% | 2,012,068 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
173 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Gift | 13,334 | 17,358,451 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-29 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Gift | 62,100 | 17,371,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | CHERKEN HARRY S JR | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Campbell Kotzman Kelly | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Maredia Amin N. | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Egan Mary | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | ANTOIAN EDWARD N | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | MCDONALD WESLEY S | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Morgenfeld Todd R | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Mulliken John Champlin | director | Award / grant | 2,100 | 2,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Egan Mary | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | CHERKEN HARRY S JR | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | ANTOIAN EDWARD N | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Maredia Amin N. | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Morgenfeld Todd R | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | MCDONALD WESLEY S | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Campbell Kotzman Kelly | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mulliken John Champlin | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Egan Mary | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 16,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | CHERKEN HARRY S JR | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 499,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mulliken John Champlin | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Egan Mary | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 16,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Mulliken John Champlin | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | MCDONALD WESLEY S | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 17,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Morgenfeld Todd R | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 29,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Morgenfeld Todd R | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 29,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Maredia Amin N. | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Campbell Kotzman Kelly | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 10,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | MCDONALD WESLEY S | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 17,350 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Campbell Kotzman Kelly | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 10,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | ANTOIAN EDWARD N | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 64,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | ANTOIAN EDWARD N | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 64,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | CHERKEN HARRY S JR | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 499,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Maredia Amin N. | director | Option exercise | 2,100 | 21,250 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | ANTOIAN EDWARD N | director | Withheld for tax | 6,459 | 62,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | ANTOIAN EDWARD N | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 68,537 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-22 | ANTOIAN EDWARD N | director | Option exercise | 20,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | HAYNE RICHARD A | director | Gift | 15,500 | 17,433,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | HARRINGTON SHEILA B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,032 | 288,550 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-11 | HARRINGTON SHEILA B. | officer | Withheld for tax | 3,032 | 292,078 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro Khanna | House | exchange | 2024-03-06 | 2024-02-01 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-03-06 | 2024-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-03-06 | 2024-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | exchange | 2024-03-06 | 2024-02-06 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-11-08 | 2023-10-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-10-06 | 2023-09-26 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-09-06 | 2023-08-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-09-06 | 2023-08-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-09-06 | 2023-08-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-09-06 | 2023-08-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-08-07 | 2023-07-07 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-08-07 | 2023-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-08-07 | 2023-07-18 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2023-08-07 | 2023-07-18 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.