Issued 2026-09-16 at $8.55 · now $8.55 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UPWK has typically landed between $6.50 and $10.95 — a range of −24.0% to +28.1% from the issuance price $8.55.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,977 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-10-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($8.55) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UPWK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $8.55 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $8.55 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $8.19 (-4.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.3–$9.09
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.5–$10.95
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,977 windows spanning 2018-10-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-23 | −41.1% | −43.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −40.9% | −40.9% | +2.6% |
| 2026-01-22 | −40.8% | −40.8% | +4.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-04-15 | +92.9% | +0.0% | +92.9% |
| 2020-04-16 | +85.7% | +0.0% | +88.2% |
| 2020-10-26 | +84.1% | −2.8% | +87.1% |
1,977 overlapping windows · 2018-10-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.8%
n=8
Feb
38%
−1.1%
n=8
Mar
0%
−14.1%
n=8
Apr
50%
+0.2%
n=8
May
38%
−0.9%
n=8
Jun
75%
+7.2%
n=8
Jul
63%
+1.0%
n=8
Aug
38%
+2.3%
n=8
Sep
50%
−1.7%
n=8
Oct
57%
+4.3%
n=7
Nov
50%
+13.2%
n=8
Dec
38%
−3.3%
n=8
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $8.43 | $421K | −6.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 771,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 23,241 @ $8.43 | $196K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 821,076 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 22,844 @ $8.43 | $192K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 364,789 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Sale | 1,964 @ $8.43 | $17K | −21.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 7,214 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Sale | 558 @ $9.06 | $5K | −12.1% of holding | −13.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,063 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 23,468 @ $8.15 | $191K | −2.9% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 797,495 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 9,169 @ $8.15 | $75K | −2.6% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 341,609 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-18 | Mekhalfa Sabrina | officer | Sale | 1,276 @ $8.15 | $10K | −22.5% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,396 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $8.57 | $428K | −6.1% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 774,552 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 22,546 @ $8.66 | $195K | −2.7% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 824,552 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 22,162 @ $8.66 | $192K | −6.2% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 332,646 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Sale | 1,905 @ $8.66 | $17K | −37.3% of holding | −8.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,209 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 7,000 @ $11.49 | $80K | −72.3% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 23,745 @ $12.31 | $292K | −2.9% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 798,732 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 11,575 @ $12.31 | $143K | −54.5% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 9,278 @ $12.31 | $114K | −2.9% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 307,240 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Mekhalfa Sabrina | officer | Sale | 1,482 @ $12.31 | $18K | −41.4% of holding | −14.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,095 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-19 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 15,649 @ $13.51 | $211K | −97.8% of holding | −10.3% | −47.0% | 345 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 73,152 @ $13.80 | $1.0M | −8.1% of holding | −13.5% | −49.4% | 826,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 50,000 @ $13.79 | $689K | −6.1% of holding | −13.5% | −49.4% | 776,067 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 26,292 @ $13.80 | $363K | −8.1% of holding | −13.5% | −49.4% | 298,386 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 17,013 @ $13.80 | $235K | −51.5% of holding | −13.5% | −49.4% | 15,994 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-19 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 9,622 @ $20.66 | $199K | −96.5% of holding | +1.3% | −68.4% | 345 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 23,147 @ $20.59 | $477K | −3.1% of holding | −5.4% | −69.2% | 721,158 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 11,285 @ $20.59 | $232K | −53.1% of holding | −5.4% | −69.2% | 9,967 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 9,044 @ $20.59 | $186K | −3.5% of holding | −5.4% | −69.2% | 246,701 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 175,000 @ $19.43 | $3.4M | −18.0% of holding | +2.2% | −64.4% | 797,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-26 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $19.44 | $1.9M | −12.5% of holding | +2.2% | −64.4% | 697,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-25 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 75,000 @ $19.78 | $1.5M | −7.2% of holding | +3.3% | −67.9% | 972,894 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $18.20 | $1.1M | −5.4% of holding | +11.8% | −66.2% | 1,047,894 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-21 | Steele Gary | director | Sale | 12,500 @ $17.51 | $219K | −12.8% of holding | +11.8% | −66.2% | 85,129 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-19 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 1,748 @ $18.13 | $32K | −83.5% of holding | +10.4% | −64.7% | 345 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 12,732 @ $17.24 | $220K | −1.1% of holding | +17.4% | −63.7% | 1,107,894 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 12,114 @ $16.14 | $196K | −1.1% of holding | +17.4% | −63.7% | 1,120,626 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 9,434 @ $17.24 | $163K | −3.8% of holding | +17.4% | −63.7% | 237,612 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 9,059 @ $16.14 | $146K | −3.5% of holding | +17.4% | −63.7% | 247,046 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 1,047 @ $17.24 | $18K | −33.3% of holding | +17.4% | −63.7% | 2,093 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 955 @ $16.14 | $15K | −23.3% of holding | +17.4% | −63.7% | 3,140 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 561 @ $16.45 | $9K | −61.9% of holding | +23.8% | −58.5% | 345 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $20.00 | $400K | −1.8% of holding | −18.1% | −42.4% | 1,082,358 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-19 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 10,014 @ $19.96 | $200K | −96.7% of holding | −18.1% | −42.4% | 345 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 22,344 @ $19.16 | $428K | −2.0% of holding | −17.9% | −41.2% | 1,102,358 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $19.00 | $380K | −1.8% of holding | −17.9% | −41.2% | 1,078,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 10,894 @ $19.16 | $209K | −51.3% of holding | −17.9% | −41.2% | 10,359 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 8,730 @ $19.16 | $167K | −3.8% of holding | −17.9% | −41.2% | 218,605 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-17 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $18.00 | $360K | −1.8% of holding | −8.2% | −38.1% | 1,098,291 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-29 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 1,690 @ $14.95 | $25K | −83.0% of holding | +17.1% | −20.8% | 345 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Marie Olivier | officer | Sale | 1,686 @ $13.88 | $23K | −69.3% of holding | +37.9% | −11.5% | 748 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 25,577 @ $13.84 | $354K | −2.2% of holding | +27.2% | −9.2% | 1,118,291 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 19,036 @ $13.84 | $263K | −8.3% of holding | +27.2% | −9.2% | 209,202 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 2,060 @ $13.84 | $29K | −50.3% of holding | +27.2% | −9.2% | 2,035 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | Marie Olivier | officer | Sale | 941 @ $13.84 | $13K | −27.9% of holding | +27.2% | −9.2% | 2,434 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-15 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 60,000 @ $13.76 | $825K | −5.2% of holding | +21.3% | −14.3% | 1,093,485 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Marie Olivier | officer | Sale | 1,294 @ $14.00 | $18K | −63.4% of holding | +20.1% | −9.7% | 748 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 9,000 @ $12.88 | $116K | −96.3% of holding | +19.4% | +33.1% | 345 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-23 | Marie Olivier | officer | Sale | 1,842 @ $13.24 | $24K | −47.4% of holding | −0.2% | +43.6% | 2,042 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-20 | Marie Olivier | officer | Sale | 748 @ $13.24 | $10K | −16.1% of holding | −1.7% | +41.6% | 3,884 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Sale | 23,716 @ $13.51 | $320K | −2.0% of holding | −5.6% | +37.9% | 1,153,485 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Bottoms Dave | officer | Sale | 11,562 @ $13.51 | $156K | −55.3% of holding | −5.6% | +37.9% | 9,345 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Sale | 9,267 @ $13.51 | $125K | −4.6% of holding | −5.6% | +37.9% | 190,738 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
239 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 18,333 | 36,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 14,850 | 29,700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Option exercise | 5,115 | 71,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 8,524 | 119,340 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 112,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 13,639 | 190,944 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 13,639 | 844,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 18,333 | 830,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 14,850 | 812,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 8,524 | 387,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 379,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Option exercise | 5,115 | 9,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 13,639 | 844,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 18,333 | 830,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 14,850 | 812,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Option exercise | 5,115 | 9,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 8,524 | 387,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 379,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 14,850 | 812,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 18,333 | 830,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 13,639 | 844,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 379,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 8,524 | 387,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 14,850 | 812,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 18,333 | 830,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 13,639 | 844,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 379,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 8,524 | 387,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 14,850 | 812,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 18,333 | 830,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 13,639 | 844,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 379,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 8,524 | 387,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Option exercise | 5,115 | 9,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 14,850 | 812,345 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 18,333 | 830,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Brown Hayden | director | Option exercise | 13,639 | 844,317 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Kappus Anthony Ray | officer | Option exercise | 5,115 | 9,178 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 37,500 | 379,109 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Gessert Erica | officer | Option exercise | 8,524 | 387,633 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.