UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.Industrials · Integrated Freight & Logisticsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $98.77 · now $98.77 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UPS has typically landed between $85.87 and $109.74 — a range of −13.1% to +11.1% from the issuance price $98.77.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($98.77) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UPS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $98.77 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$85.87worst · -13.1%$109.74best · +11.1%
  • now $98.77 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $99.39 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $94.29–$104.5
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.87–$109.74
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−30.6%−30.6%+0.0%
2008-09-23−28.4%−28.4%+0.0%
2008-09-25−27.0%−27.3%+1.0%
3 best
2020-07-10+38.7%−1.1%+38.7%
2020-07-09+37.1%−0.6%+37.1%
2020-07-13+37.0%+0.0%+40.3%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$85.7B
market cap
$6.18
EPS (TTM)
18.6
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-28
next earnings
Revenue$88.7B
'20'25
Net income$5.6B
'20'25
Free cash flow$4.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr6.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr34.3%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.99
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $98.77$66.93$198.51
  • DCF (intrinsic)$167.74
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$189.44
  • Analyst target · range $76.00–$133.00$115.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$98.77

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
−3.2%
n=18
Feb
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Mar
84%
+2.6%
n=19
Apr
53%
+0.7%
n=19
May
37%
−0.7%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.3%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
63%
+0.9%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.9%
n=18
Nov
94%
+5.2%
n=18
Dec
44%
−1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$118$792026-01-28: 3 insider sales, $2.7M — Brothers Norman M. Jr …2025-08-22: 1 insider purchase, $44K — Shi Christiana Smith2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $1.0M2026-01: 3 open-market sales, $2.7M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Brothers Norman M. Jr — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed same dayofficer Brothers Norman M. Jr — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed same dayofficer Brothers Norman M. Jr — Sale on 2026-01-28, filed same daydirector Shi Christiana Smith — Purchase on 2025-08-22, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-01-28Brothers Norman M. JrofficerSale21,385 @ $106.04$2.3M−100.0% of holding+14.7%−2.6%0Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-28Brothers Norman M. JrofficerSale3,241 @ $106.68$346K−13.2% of holding+14.7%−2.6%21,385Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-28Brothers Norman M. JrofficerSale388 @ $107.68$42K−1.6% of holding+14.7%−2.6%24,626Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-22Shi Christiana SmithdirectorPurchase500 @ $88.17$44Kownership Δ n/a−8.0%+26.9%500Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-01TOME CAROL BdirectorPurchase11,682 @ $85.67$1.0M+89.6% of holding−0.2%+22.8%24,718Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-31JOHNSON WILLIAM RdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $86.50$432K+96.9% of holding+1.3%+17.7%10,160Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

160 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01Subramanian BaladirectorAward / grant29,22329,223Form 4
2026-09-01Cesarone NandodirectorAward / grant58,44658,446Form 4
2026-09-01Ramos WilfredoofficerAward / grant5,41310,256Form 4
2026-05-15Cesarone NandodirectorWithheld for tax1,58243,507Form 4
2026-05-15Gutmann Kathleen M.officerWithheld for tax1,58299,444Form 4
2026-05-15Dykes Brian MofficerWithheld for tax1,39815,970Form 4
2026-05-15Guffey Matthew WofficerWithheld for tax1,1898,581Form 4
2026-05-15Brothers Norman M. JrofficerWithheld for tax1,11625,106Form 4
2026-05-15Subramanian BaladirectorWithheld for tax1,02724,562Form 4
2026-05-15Ford Darrell LdirectorWithheld for tax96924,393Form 4
2026-05-15Gutmann Kathleen M.officerOption exercise3,55210,655Form 4
2026-05-15Subramanian BaladirectorOption exercise3,08625,589Form 4
2026-05-15Subramanian BaladirectorOption exercise3,0869,260Form 4
2026-05-15Gutmann Kathleen M.officerOption exercise3,552101,026Form 4
2026-05-15Dykes Brian MofficerOption exercise3,13817,368Form 4
2026-05-15Dykes Brian MofficerOption exercise3,1389,413Form 4
2026-05-15Brothers Norman M. JrofficerOption exercise2,50526,222Form 4
2026-05-15Brothers Norman M. JrofficerOption exercise2,5057,514Form 4
2026-05-15Ford Darrell LdirectorOption exercise2,17425,362Form 4
2026-05-15Ford Darrell LdirectorOption exercise2,1746,521Form 4
2026-05-15Cesarone NandodirectorOption exercise3,55210,655Form 4
2026-05-15Cesarone NandodirectorOption exercise3,55245,089Form 4
2026-05-15Guffey Matthew WofficerOption exercise2,6689,770Form 4
2026-05-15Guffey Matthew WofficerOption exercise2,6688,001Form 4
2026-05-07Boratto Eva CdirectorAward / grant1,9489,949Form 4
2026-05-07Hewett Wayne M.directorAward / grant1,9489,949Form 4
2026-05-07Adkins Rodney CdirectorAward / grant1,94828,072Form 4
2026-05-07CLARK KEVIN PdirectorAward / grant1,9484,534Form 4
2026-05-07JOHNSON WILLIAM RdirectorAward / grant2,64747,132Form 4
2026-05-07Shi Christiana SmithdirectorAward / grant1,94816,199Form 4
2026-05-07Stokes RusselldirectorAward / grant1,9489,578Form 4
2026-05-07Hwang AngeladirectorAward / grant1,94810,363Form 4
2026-05-07MORIKIS JOHN GdirectorAward / grant1,9484,053Form 4
2026-05-07Warsh Kevin MdirectorAward / grant1,94830,551Form 4
2026-05-07MOISON FRANCK JdirectorAward / grant1,94818,467Form 4
2026-05-06Gutmann Kathleen M.officerAward / grant13,88913,889Form 4
2026-05-06Warsh Kevin MdirectorAward / grant31314,623Form 4
2026-05-06Dykes Brian MofficerAward / grant12,50412,504Form 4
2026-05-06Guffey Matthew WofficerAward / grant11,42411,424Form 4
2026-05-06Brothers Norman M. JrofficerAward / grant8,9118,911Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-04-072026-03-13$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-02-132026-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Katie BrittSenatepurchase2026-01-262025-11-07$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-12-152025-11-18$1–15K
Scott DesjarlaisHousesale2025-11-182025-10-28$15–50K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-10-222025-09-11$1–15K
Marjorie Taylor GreeneHousepurchase2025-10-202025-10-09$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.