UPBD · TickerCove

UPBDUpbound Group, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $17.78 · now $17.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UPBD has typically landed between $14.39 and $21.30 — a range of −19.1% to +19.8% from the issuance price $17.78.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($17.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$17.78 · 23% of range

$15.42 low$25.77 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−1.1%

typical move · IQR 17.2%

−19.1%worst (p90)+19.8%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where UPBD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $17.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $17.78 (+0.0%)
typical $17.59 (-1.1%)
middle 50% $16.06–$19.12
90% range $14.39–$21.3

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−51.5%	−51.5%	+1.0%
2020-02-18	−49.6%	−49.6%	+0.0%
2008-09-29	−47.0%	−47.0%	+0.0%
3 best
2022-07-14	+55.9%	+0.0%	+55.9%
2018-05-31	+55.2%	+0.0%	+56.8%
2020-04-21	+53.8%	+0.0%	+53.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−1.2%

n=20

Feb

55%

−1.6%

n=20

Mar

65%

+1.2%

n=20

Apr

55%

+4.9%

n=20

May

55%

+3.3%

n=20

Jun

50%

+1.1%

n=20

Jul

65%

+1.3%

n=20

Aug

45%

+1.3%

n=20

Sep

25%

−3.2%

n=20

Oct

30%

−5.0%

n=20

Nov

65%

+3.9%

n=20

Dec

65%

+3.5%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	Blasquez Anthony J	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $18.85	$189K	−18.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	43,717	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-07-07	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	1,841 @ $20.09	$37K	+1.9% of holding	−4.9%	not yet — horizon still open	96,681	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-07	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	454 @ $20.09	$9K	+1.9% of holding	−4.9%	not yet — horizon still open	23,853	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	1,868 @ $19.41	$36K	+2.0% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	94,840	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-28	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	461 @ $19.41	$9K	+2.0% of holding	−4.1%	not yet — horizon still open	23,399	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	2,007 @ $17.68	$35K	+2.2% of holding	+8.2%	+1.7%	92,972	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-06	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	495 @ $17.68	$9K	+2.2% of holding	+8.2%	+1.7%	22,938	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-21	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	1,565 @ $22.27	$35K	+1.8% of holding	−28.4%	−18.9%	90,965	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-21	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	386 @ $22.27	$9K	+1.8% of holding	−28.4%	−18.9%	22,443	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-11	Montrone Ralph T.	officer	Sale	6,000 @ $25.23	$151K	−10.9% of holding	−18.2%	−26.8%	49,123	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-21	Blasquez Anthony J	officer	Sale	3,500 @ $23.63	$83K	−9.7% of holding	+1.8%	−14.8%	32,511	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	1,326 @ $25.90	$34K	+1.5% of holding	−19.0%	−38.0%	89,400	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-08	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	327 @ $25.90	$8K	+1.5% of holding	−19.0%	−38.0%	22,057	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-06	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	21,730 @ $23.75	$516K	ownership Δ n/a	−1.1%	−34.1%	21,730	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-22	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	1,694 @ $19.89	$34K	+2.0% of holding	+4.7%	−13.0%	88,074	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10	Karam Fahmi	director	Purchase	11,500 @ $25.82	$297K	+7.5% of holding	−7.8%	−15.5%	164,672	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-07	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Purchase	1,146 @ $29.01	$33K	+1.3% of holding	−2.0%	−14.5%	86,380	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

153 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Taylor Transient C	officer	Award / grant	67,290	67,290	Form 4
2026-09-01	Khouri Halim	officer	Award / grant	177,998	177,998	Form 4
2026-09-01	Kumar Balaji	officer	Award / grant	130,299	130,299	Form 4
2026-09-01	Montrone Ralph T.	officer	Award / grant	33,226	100,175	Form 4
2026-09-01	Montrone Ralph T.	officer	Award / grant	99,679	99,679	Form 4
2026-09-01	Pfirrman Christopher Keith	officer	Award / grant	82,755	82,755	Form 4
2026-09-01	Taylor Transient C	officer	Award / grant	22,430	66,412	Form 4
2026-09-01	Wooters Rebecca	officer	Award / grant	158,221	158,221	Form 4
2026-09-01	Blasquez Anthony J	officer	Award / grant	32,962	76,679	Form 4
2026-09-01	Blasquez Anthony J	officer	Award / grant	98,888	98,888	Form 4
2026-09-01	Karam Fahmi	director	Award / grant	767,838	767,838	Form 4
2026-07-07	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Award / grant	2,524	172,683	Form 4
2026-07-07	MARINO GLENN P	director	Award / grant	1,278	67,067	Form 4
2026-07-07	LANGENSTEIN MOLLY	director	Award / grant	758	34,383	Form 4
2026-07-07	Jain Charu	director	Award / grant	600	27,419	Form 4
2026-07-07	McFate Carol A.	director	Award / grant	197	48,162	Form 4
2026-07-01	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Award / grant	4,602	170,159	Form 4
2026-07-01	LANGENSTEIN MOLLY	director	Award / grant	1,700	33,625	Form 4
2026-07-01	Jain Charu	director	Award / grant	1,546	26,819	Form 4
2026-07-01	MARINO GLENN P	director	Award / grant	1,531	65,789	Form 4
2026-04-28	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Award / grant	2,636	165,557	Form 4
2026-04-28	MARINO GLENN P	director	Award / grant	1,334	64,258	Form 4
2026-04-28	LANGENSTEIN MOLLY	director	Award / grant	792	31,925	Form 4
2026-04-28	Jain Charu	director	Award / grant	627	25,273	Form 4
2026-04-28	McFate Carol A.	director	Award / grant	206	47,965	Form 4
2026-04-01	Kumar Balaji	officer	Award / grant	14,749	14,749	Form 4
2026-04-01	BROWN JEFFREY J	director	Award / grant	5,410	162,921	Form 4
2026-04-01	LANGENSTEIN MOLLY	director	Award / grant	2,000	31,133	Form 4
2026-04-01	Jain Charu	director	Award / grant	1,818	24,646	Form 4
2026-04-01	MARINO GLENN P	director	Award / grant	1,801	62,924	Form 4
2026-02-26	Karam Fahmi	director	Withheld for tax	1,211	254,505	Form 4
2026-02-26	Montrone Ralph T.	officer	Withheld for tax	874	66,949	Form 4
2026-02-26	Blasquez Anthony J	officer	Withheld for tax	485	53,717	Form 4
2026-02-26	Taylor Transient C	officer	Withheld for tax	481	43,982	Form 4
2026-02-26	Pechersky Bryan J	officer	Withheld for tax	459	43,924	Form 4
2026-02-24	Karam Fahmi	director	Withheld for tax	6,112	255,716	Form 4
2026-02-24	Karam Fahmi	director	Withheld for tax	3,670	261,828	Form 4
2026-02-24	Montrone Ralph T.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,145	67,823	Form 4
2026-02-24	Montrone Ralph T.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,031	68,968	Form 4
2026-02-24	Taylor Transient C	officer	Withheld for tax	687	44,463	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i