UP · TickerCove

UPWheels Up Experience Inc.Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.16 · now $3.16 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UP has typically landed between $1.81 and $5.57 — a range of −42.6% to +76.3% from the issuance price $3.16.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,443 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.16) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$3.16 · 0% of range

$3.16 low$51 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−12.4%

typical move · IQR 31.8%

−42.6%worst (p90)+76.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where UP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.16 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $3.16 (+0.0%)
typical $2.77 (-12.4%)
middle 50% $2.27–$3.27
90% range $1.81–$5.57

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,443 windows spanning 2020-11-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2023-05-23	−70.0%	−70.0%	+0.0%
2023-05-24	−69.6%	−69.6%	+6.4%
2023-05-22	−68.3%	−68.3%	+2.2%
3 best
2023-08-11	+253.6%	+0.0%	+253.6%
2023-11-27	+172.0%	−26.5%	+172.0%
2023-12-12	+167.1%	+0.0%	+270.3%

1,443 overlapping windows · 2020-11-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

33%

−0.9%

n=6

Feb

17%

−9.6%

n=6

Mar

17%

−15.0%

n=6

Apr

17%

−14.2%

n=6

May

50%

+7.2%

n=6

Jun

17%

−21.5%

n=6

Jul

67%

+22.1%

n=6

Aug

17%

−0.2%

n=6

Sep

33%

−9.9%

n=6

Oct

40%

−2.6%

n=5

Nov

40%

−3.8%

n=5

Dec

33%

−3.1%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-08	Wells Meaghan Danielle	officer	Sale	923 @ $4.39	$4K	−1.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	60,474	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31	CK Wheels LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	9,363 @ $4.61	$43K	−0.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	12,860,891	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-10	Wells Meaghan Danielle	officer	Sale	4,358 @ $5.41	$24K	−6.6% of holding	−21.8%	not yet — horizon still open	61,695	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-23	CK Wheels LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	100 @ $7.00	$700	−0.0% of holding	−16.6%	not yet — horizon still open	12,870,254	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-18	CK Wheels LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	27,524 @ $8.05	$222K	−0.2% of holding	−17.9%	not yet — horizon still open	12,870,354	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-17	CK Wheels LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	5,309 @ $8.07	$43K	−0.0% of holding	−17.4%	not yet — horizon still open	12,897,878	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16	CK Wheels LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	4,021 @ $8.15	$33K	−0.0% of holding	−15.4%	not yet — horizon still open	12,903,187	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15	CK Wheels LLC	tenPercentOwner	Sale	1,252 @ $8.52	$11K	−0.0% of holding	−22.5%	not yet — horizon still open	12,907,208	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Briffa Mark	officer	Sale	1,017 @ $7.50	$8K	−1.3% of holding	−16.4%	not yet — horizon still open	80,083	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-18	Mattson George N	director	Purchase	1,475 @ $5.56	$8K	+5.6% of holding	+37.0%	not yet — horizon still open	27,791	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15	Mattson George N	director	Purchase	10,029 @ $5.13	$51K	+61.6% of holding	+48.2%	not yet — horizon still open	26,316	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-14	Mattson George N	director	Purchase	1,304 @ $5.48	$7K	+8.7% of holding	+47.9%	not yet — horizon still open	16,287	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-13	Mattson George N	director	Purchase	14,983 @ $5.30	$79K	ownership Δ n/a	+53.5%	not yet — horizon still open	14,983	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-13	Briffa Mark	officer	Sale	3,804 @ $4.99	$19K	−4.4% of holding	+53.5%	not yet — horizon still open	82,003	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Briffa Mark	officer	Sale	86,813 @ $1.23	$107K	−9.1% of holding	−48.9%	−93.0%	866,670	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07	Wells Meaghan Danielle	officer	Sale	47,931 @ $1.22	$58K	−8.3% of holding	−48.9%	−93.0%	526,681	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-11	Briffa Mark	officer	Sale	9,904 @ $2.18	$22K	−0.9% of holding	−21.8%	−77.2%	1,050,469	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-29	Holtz David L	officer	Sale	36,318 @ $2.92	$106K	−3.7% of holding	−40.8%	−87.1%	954,254	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-28	Briffa Mark	officer	Sale	5,780 @ $2.96	$17K	−0.5% of holding	−47.1%	−89.0%	1,069,157	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-27	Moak Donald Lee	director	Sale	43,166 @ $3.11	$134K	−19.3% of holding	−34.6%	−86.2%	180,431	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26	Godsman David	officer	Sale	75,000 @ $2.83	$212K	−7.1% of holding	−39.6%	−85.5%	976,715	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26	Kedzior Brian Joseph	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $2.94	$74K	−2.9% of holding	−39.6%	−85.5%	834,914	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26	Briffa Mark	officer	Sale	5,780 @ $3.00	$17K	−0.5% of holding	−39.6%	−85.5%	1,074,937	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Chatkewitz Alexander	officer	Sale	23,959 @ $1.46	$35K	−4.5% of holding	+11.9%	−67.2%	507,462	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13	Briffa Mark	officer	Sale	28,717 @ $1.06	$30K	−2.6% of holding	−20.6%	+75.6%	1,090,971	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

113 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-09	Knopf Matthew J.	officer	Withheld for tax	4,345	91,521	Form 4
2026-09-05	Chatkewitz Alexander	officer	Withheld for tax	188	42,350	Form 4
2026-08-26	Briffa Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	646	33,672	Form 4
2026-08-26	Lauria Kristen	officer	Withheld for tax	383	81,645	Form 4
2026-08-26	Knopf Matthew J.	officer	Withheld for tax	377	95,866	Form 4
2026-08-26	Holtz David L	officer	Withheld for tax	373	78,438	Form 4
2026-08-26	Godsman David	officer	Withheld for tax	362	79,324	Form 4
2026-08-26	Kedzior Brian Joseph	officer	Withheld for tax	305	69,605	Form 4
2026-08-26	Wells Meaghan Danielle	officer	Withheld for tax	298	61,397	Form 4
2026-08-26	Chatkewitz Alexander	officer	Withheld for tax	274	42,538	Form 4
2026-08-26	Briffa Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	257	34,318	Form 4
2026-08-26	Lauria Kristen	officer	Withheld for tax	146	82,028	Form 4
2026-08-26	Holtz David L	officer	Withheld for tax	134	78,811	Form 4
2026-08-26	Godsman David	officer	Withheld for tax	130	79,686	Form 4
2026-08-26	Kedzior Brian Joseph	officer	Withheld for tax	105	69,910	Form 4
2026-06-09	FARAH ROGER N	director	Award / grant	24,305	24,305	Form 4
2026-06-09	Moak Donald Lee	director	Award / grant	24,305	33,326	Form 4
2026-06-09	SUMME GREGORY L	director	Award / grant	24,305	36,090	Form 4
2026-06-05	Chatkewitz Alexander	officer	Withheld for tax	188	42,812	Form 4
2026-06-01	Godsman David	officer	Withheld for tax	593	79,816	Form 4
2026-05-26	Briffa Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	646	81,100	Form 4
2026-05-26	Lauria Kristen	officer	Withheld for tax	383	82,174	Form 4
2026-05-26	Knopf Matthew J.	officer	Withheld for tax	379	96,243	Form 4
2026-05-26	Holtz David L	officer	Withheld for tax	376	78,945	Form 4
2026-05-26	Godsman David	officer	Withheld for tax	362	80,409	Form 4
2026-05-26	Kedzior Brian Joseph	officer	Withheld for tax	305	70,015	Form 4
2026-05-26	Wells Meaghan Danielle	officer	Withheld for tax	298	66,053	Form 4
2026-05-26	Chatkewitz Alexander	officer	Withheld for tax	274	43,000	Form 4
2026-05-26	Briffa Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	257	81,746	Form 4
2026-05-26	Lauria Kristen	officer	Withheld for tax	146	82,557	Form 4
2026-05-26	Holtz David L	officer	Withheld for tax	135	79,321	Form 4
2026-05-26	Godsman David	officer	Withheld for tax	130	80,771	Form 4
2026-05-26	Kedzior Brian Joseph	officer	Withheld for tax	105	70,320	Form 4
2026-05-15	Lauria Kristen	officer	Withheld for tax	653	82,703	Form 4
2026-03-05	Chatkewitz Alexander	officer	Withheld for tax	4,240	865,539	Form 4
2026-02-26	Briffa Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	51,641	1,696,189	Form 4
2026-02-26	Lauria Kristen	officer	Withheld for tax	36,270	1,667,177	Form 4
2026-02-26	Knopf Matthew J.	officer	Withheld for tax	35,728	1,932,493	Form 4
2026-02-26	Holtz David L	officer	Withheld for tax	35,387	1,589,149	Form 4
2026-02-26	Godsman David	officer	Withheld for tax	34,270	1,618,046	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i