UNPUnion Pacific CorporationIndustrials · Railroadsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $280.92 · now $280.92 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UNP has typically landed between $257.64 and $311.10 — a range of −8.3% to +10.7% from the issuance price $280.92.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($280.92) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UNP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $280.92 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$257.64worst · -8.3%$311.1best · +10.7%
  • now $280.92 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $282.26 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $270.45–$294.07
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $257.64–$311.1
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−36.9%−36.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−36.4%−36.4%+0.8%
2020-02-20−35.4%−36.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+30.3%−0.9%+30.3%
2009-03-05+30.1%−5.1%+30.1%
2020-03-23+29.0%+0.0%+31.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$182.6B
market cap
$12.35
EPS (TTM)
24.9
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-22
next earnings
Revenue$24.5B
'20'25
Net income$7.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$5.5B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr29.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr38.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.72
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $280.92$154.22$395.18
  • DCF (intrinsic)$170.84
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$378.57
  • Analyst target · range $294.00–$363.00$326.50
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$280.92

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.7%
n=18
Feb
74%
+2.1%
n=19
Mar
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.6%
n=19
May
47%
+0.8%
n=19
Jun
42%
+0.2%
n=19
Jul
74%
+4.2%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
53%
−1.3%
n=19
Oct
50%
+0.7%
n=18
Nov
83%
+4.6%
n=18
Dec
72%
+0.7%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$310$2112026-06-03: 1 insider sale, $790K — Gehringer Eric J2026-04-24: 3 insider sales, $8.0M — Rocker Kenyatta G, Hamann Jennifer L …2026-03-20: 1 insider sale, $470K — Gehringer Eric J2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $470K2026-04: 3 open-market sales, $8.0M2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $790K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Gehringer Eric J — Sale on 2026-06-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rocker Kenyatta G — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Rocker Kenyatta G — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hamann Jennifer L — Sale on 2026-04-24, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Gehringer Eric J — Sale on 2026-03-20, filed 13 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-03Gehringer Eric JofficerSale2,991 @ $263.96$790K−6.5% of holding+7.9%not yet — horizon still open43,012Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-24Rocker Kenyatta GofficerSale15,531 @ $271.76$4.2M−20.3% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open61,102Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24Rocker Kenyatta GofficerSale11,856 @ $271.76$3.2M−16.3% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open61,102Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-04-24Hamann Jennifer LdirectorSale2,000 @ $274.70$549K−1.7% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open114,642Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-20Gehringer Eric JofficerSale1,999 @ $234.93$470K−4.2% of holding−1.6%not yet — horizon still open45,973Form 4 · filed 13 days after the trade
2025-01-27Richardson Craig VofficerSale3,729 @ $252.00$940K−12.4% of holding−2.7%−17.6%26,319Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27Richardson Craig VofficerSale2,766 @ $252.00$697K−9.5% of holding−2.7%−17.6%26,319Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-24Whited Elizabeth FdirectorSale7,500 @ $250.00$1.9M−10.4% of holding+1.1%−12.2%64,960Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

292 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant7114,683Form 4
2026-09-10Powers Carrie JofficerAward / grant68,147Form 4
2026-09-10Jalali RahulofficerAward / grant533,136Form 4
2026-09-10Rocker Kenyatta GofficerAward / grant31,311Form 4
2026-09-10Conlin Christina BofficerAward / grant216,014Form 4
2026-09-04Rocker Kenyatta GofficerGift43160,702Form 4
2026-08-10Jalali RahulofficerAward / grant833,131Form 4
2026-08-10Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant8114,675Form 4
2026-08-10Powers Carrie JofficerAward / grant58,141Form 4
2026-08-10Rocker Kenyatta GofficerAward / grant31,309Form 4
2026-08-10Conlin Christina BofficerAward / grant216,012Form 4
2026-07-10Jalali RahulofficerAward / grant833,123Form 4
2026-07-10Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant8114,667Form 4
2026-07-10Powers Carrie JofficerAward / grant68,136Form 4
2026-07-10Rocker Kenyatta GofficerAward / grant561,133Form 4
2026-07-10Rocker Kenyatta GofficerAward / grant31,306Form 4
2026-07-10Conlin Christina BofficerAward / grant216,009Form 4
2026-07-01MCCARTHY MICHAEL RdirectorAward / grant80872,822Form 4
2026-07-01Lute Jane HdirectorAward / grant36212,461Form 4
2026-07-01Simons DoyledirectorAward / grant3053,666Form 4
2026-07-01HOPKINS DEBORAH CdirectorAward / grant22113,002Form 4
2026-07-01WILLIAMS CHRISTOPHER JdirectorAward / grant1896,382Form 4
2026-07-01Edison Sheri H.directorAward / grant1753,617Form 4
2026-07-01Finley TeresadirectorAward / grant1743,500Form 4
2026-07-01WIEHOFF JOHNdirectorAward / grant1672,216Form 4
2026-07-01Tien John K JrdirectorAward / grant1661,936Form 4
2026-07-01Will W AnthonydirectorAward / grant159338Form 4
2026-06-10Rocker Kenyatta GofficerAward / grant1361,128Form 4
2026-06-10Gehringer Eric JofficerAward / grant1343,025Form 4
2026-06-10Jalali RahulofficerAward / grant933,114Form 4
2026-06-10Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant9114,659Form 4
2026-06-10Conlin Christina BofficerAward / grant716,007Form 4
2026-06-10Powers Carrie JofficerAward / grant68,130Form 4
2026-06-10Rocker Kenyatta GofficerAward / grant31,302Form 4
2026-05-10Gehringer Eric JofficerAward / grant1446,003Form 4
2026-05-10Rocker Kenyatta GofficerAward / grant1361,115Form 4
2026-05-10Jalali RahulofficerAward / grant933,105Form 4
2026-05-10Hamann Jennifer LdirectorAward / grant9114,651Form 4
2026-05-10Conlin Christina BofficerAward / grant716,000Form 4
2026-05-10Powers Carrie JofficerAward / grant68,124Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2026-03-062026-02-19$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatesale2026-02-152026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-29$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-02-062026-01-22$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2026-01-152025-12-18$1–15K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-12-112025-11-13$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.