UNMUnum Groupas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $94.82 · now $94.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UNM has typically landed between $85.17 and $107.84 — a range of −10.2% to +13.7% from the issuance price $94.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($94.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UNM has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $94.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$85.17worst · -10.2%$107.84best · +13.7%
  • now $94.82 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $97.65 (+3.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $93.42–$101.88
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.17–$107.84
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−65.4%−65.4%+0.0%
2020-02-20−64.9%−64.9%+0.0%
2020-02-19−63.6%−63.6%+1.4%
3 best
2008-11-20+78.2%+0.0%+91.2%
2009-03-05+74.1%+0.0%+74.1%
2009-03-06+68.4%+0.0%+71.7%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
61%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
74%
+2.1%
n=19
Mar
58%
+1.5%
n=19
Apr
58%
+4.3%
n=19
May
63%
−0.1%
n=19
Jun
42%
−1.6%
n=19
Jul
58%
+3.5%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.2%
n=19
Sep
47%
+1.1%
n=19
Oct
67%
+0.6%
n=18
Nov
50%
+2.8%
n=18
Dec
61%
+1.3%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$97$672026-09-10: 2 insider sales, $611K — Keaney Timothy F, Rice Walter Lynn JR2026-09-09: 1 insider sale, $378K — IGLESIAS LISA G2026-04-30: 1 insider sale, $962K — Ahmed Elizabeth Claire2026-03-16: 1 insider sale, $352K — Pyne Christopher W2026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $256K — IGLESIAS LISA G2026-02-18: 2 insider sales, $984K — Egan Cynthia, Keaney Timothy F2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $66K — Rice Walter Lynn JR2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $573K — Zabel Steven Andrew2025-11-07: 1 insider sale, $312K — Pyne Christopher W2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $885K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $66K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $984K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $607K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $962K2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $988K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Keaney Timothy F — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Rice Walter Lynn JR — Sale on 2026-09-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector IGLESIAS LISA G — Sale on 2026-09-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ahmed Elizabeth Claire — Sale on 2026-04-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Pyne Christopher W — Sale on 2026-03-16, filed 2 days after the tradedirector IGLESIAS LISA G — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Egan Cynthia — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Keaney Timothy F — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rice Walter Lynn JR — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Zabel Steven Andrew — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Pyne Christopher W — Sale on 2025-11-07, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Keaney Timothy FdirectorSale4,300 @ $94.02$404K−10.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open36,502Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-10Rice Walter Lynn JRofficerSale2,188 @ $94.31$206K−21.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open8,154Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-09IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorSale4,000 @ $94.44$378K−13.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open25,453Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-30Ahmed Elizabeth ClaireofficerSale12,000 @ $80.14$962K−22.0% of holding−1.8%not yet — horizon still open42,587Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16Pyne Christopher WofficerSale4,852 @ $72.47$352K−8.5% of holding+3.4%not yet — horizon still open52,268Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorSale3,500 @ $73.00$256K−10.6% of holding+6.4%not yet — horizon still open29,453Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Egan CynthiadirectorSale9,000 @ $73.00$657K−17.4% of holding+3.4%+18.8%42,846Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18Keaney Timothy FdirectorSale4,500 @ $72.58$327K−10.4% of holding+3.4%+18.8%38,592Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-09Rice Walter Lynn JRofficerSale900 @ $73.50$66K−9.1% of holding+7.5%+17.9%8,940Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Zabel Steven AndrewofficerSale7,500 @ $76.38$573K−6.2% of holding+0.6%−1.4%113,807Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07Pyne Christopher WofficerSale4,000 @ $78.04$312K−7.2% of holding−7.9%−5.5%51,372Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-07Ahmed Elizabeth ClaireofficerSale10,000 @ $80.00$800K−16.3% of holding−5.6%−25.0%51,170Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-03-03McKenney Richard PdirectorSale26,421 @ $82.52$2.2M−2.6% of holding+4.4%−23.3%980,637Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03McKenney Richard PdirectorSale15,568 @ $81.73$1.3M−1.5% of holding+4.4%−23.3%1,007,058Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03McKenney Richard PdirectorSale8,011 @ $80.74$647K−0.8% of holding+4.4%−23.3%1,022,626Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorSale7,000 @ $82.75$579K−18.3% of holding+4.4%−23.3%31,284Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03DeVore Susan D.directorSale5,577 @ $80.62$450K−14.9% of holding+4.4%−23.3%31,819Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03DeVore Susan D.directorSale4,423 @ $81.21$359K−13.9% of holding+4.4%−23.3%27,396Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Rice Walter Lynn JRofficerGift2397,915Form 4
2026-07-31Walker Andrew DofficerWithheld for tax1,81924,324Form 4
2026-05-26Egan CynthiadirectorAward / grant2,19145,037Form 4
2026-05-26KABAT KEVIN TdirectorAward / grant2,191125,997Form 4
2026-05-26KABAT KEVIN TdirectorAward / grant1,333127,330Form 4
2026-05-26KING GALE V.directorAward / grant2,19123,462Form 4
2026-05-26Keaney Timothy FdirectorAward / grant2,19140,796Form 4
2026-05-26Lefebvre Mojgan MdirectorAward / grant2,19115,269Form 4
2026-05-26Matus Kristi AnndirectorAward / grant2,1912,191Form 4
2026-05-26O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorAward / grant2,19145,757Form 4
2026-05-26O HANLEY RONALD PdirectorAward / grant1,77747,534Form 4
2026-05-26DeVore Susan D.directorAward / grant2,19131,785Form 4
2026-05-26Echevarria JosephdirectorAward / grant2,191100,550Form 4
2026-05-26Cross Susan LeedirectorAward / grant2,19166,185Form 4
2026-05-26Echevarria JosephdirectorAward / grant1,540102,090Form 4
2026-05-01Anderson Shelia DanetteofficerWithheld for tax1,81727,214Form 4
2026-03-12Till Mark PaulofficerGift1,60718,032Form 4
2026-03-01McKenney Richard PdirectorWithheld for tax13,235870,044Form 4
2026-03-01McKenney Richard PdirectorWithheld for tax12,423883,279Form 4
2026-03-01McKenney Richard PdirectorWithheld for tax8,374861,670Form 4
2026-03-01Zabel Steven AndrewofficerWithheld for tax3,090106,811Form 4
2026-03-01Zabel Steven AndrewofficerWithheld for tax2,430109,901Form 4
2026-03-01Zabel Steven AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,857104,954Form 4
2026-03-01IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorWithheld for tax1,30926,086Form 4
2026-03-01IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorWithheld for tax1,24427,395Form 4
2026-03-01Arnold Timothy GeraldofficerWithheld for tax1,20852,518Form 4
2026-03-01Pyne Christopher WofficerWithheld for tax1,19844,660Form 4
2026-03-01Pyne Christopher WofficerWithheld for tax1,16845,858Form 4
2026-03-01Pyne Christopher WofficerWithheld for tax1,16147,026Form 4
2026-03-01Ahmed Elizabeth ClaireofficerWithheld for tax1,14148,538Form 4
2026-03-01Ahmed Elizabeth ClaireofficerWithheld for tax1,13149,924Form 4
2026-03-01Arnold Timothy GeraldofficerWithheld for tax90653,726Form 4
2026-03-01IGLESIAS LISA GdirectorWithheld for tax81825,268Form 4
2026-03-01Till Mark PaulofficerWithheld for tax80316,911Form 4
2026-03-01Ahmed Elizabeth ClaireofficerWithheld for tax78847,750Form 4
2026-03-01Till Mark PaulofficerWithheld for tax78716,124Form 4
2026-03-01Till Mark PaulofficerWithheld for tax77217,714Form 4
2026-03-01Arnold Timothy GeraldofficerWithheld for tax70551,813Form 4
2026-03-01Till Mark PaulofficerWithheld for tax49315,631Form 4
2026-03-01Rice Walter Lynn JRofficerWithheld for tax3337,879Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'25 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-31$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-11-212025-10-30$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-09-122025-08-04$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-11$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousesale2023-05-192023-04-10$1–15K
Daniel GoldmanHousepurchase2023-04-172023-03-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-02-072023-01-09$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2023-01-062022-12-06$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-06-172020-05-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-05-132020-04-07$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2020-04-162020-03-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-02-102020-01-08$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.