UNHUnitedHealth Group IncorporatedHealthcare · Medical - Healthcare Plansas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $375.26 · now $375.26 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UNH has typically landed between $328.26 and $424.89 — a range of −12.5% to +13.2% from the issuance price $375.26.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($375.26) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UNH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $375.26 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$328.26worst · -12.5%$424.89best · +13.2%
  • now $375.26 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $377.46 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $359.05–$395.88
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $328.26–$424.89
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-04-15−53.0%−53.0%+0.2%
2025-04-16−50.1%−53.1%+0.0%
2025-04-11−48.1%−48.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20+58.0%+0.0%+62.5%
2008-11-21+51.4%+0.0%+54.4%
2008-11-19+49.4%−8.1%+49.4%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$382.1B
market cap
$15.55
EPS (TTM)
27.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-27
next earnings
Revenue$447.6B
'20'25
Net income$12.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$16.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr2.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.8%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.83
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 54 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $375.26$243.52$550.15
  • DCF (intrinsic)$264.66
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 27.4× · n=54$426.73
  • Analyst target · range $373.00–$529.00$490.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$375.26

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.9%
n=18
Feb
47%
−2.6%
n=19
Mar
63%
+1.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
+2.6%
n=19
May
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Jun
68%
+1.1%
n=19
Jul
68%
+2.1%
n=19
Aug
53%
+1.5%
n=19
Sep
42%
−0.8%
n=19
Oct
67%
+3.4%
n=18
Nov
67%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$436$2552026-08-21: 1 insider sale, $456K — Conway Patrick Hugh2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $205K — Conway Patrick Hugh2026-04-23: 1 insider sale, $284K — Conway Patrick Hugh2025-09-11: 1 insider sale, $10K — Baker Charles D.2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $10K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $284K2026-08: 2 open-market sales, $661K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Conway Patrick Hugh — Sale on 2026-08-21, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Conway Patrick Hugh — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Conway Patrick Hugh — Sale on 2026-04-23, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Baker Charles D. — Sale on 2025-09-11, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-21Conway Patrick HughdirectorSale1,169 @ $390.00$456K−7.1% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open15,328Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05Conway Patrick HughdirectorSale500 @ $410.00$205K−2.9% of holding−3.3%not yet — horizon still open16,497Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-23Conway Patrick HughdirectorSale800 @ $355.00$284K−4.3% of holding+4.3%not yet — horizon still open17,805Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-11Baker Charles D.directorSale27 @ $356.05$10K−100.0% of holding+1.3%−19.8%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-10Conway Patrick HughdirectorSale589 @ $305.00$180K−5.4% of holding−2.9%−5.2%10,398Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16HEMSLEY STEPHEN JdirectorPurchase86,700 @ $288.57$25.0M+14.6% of holding+6.0%−2.0%679,493Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16REX JOHN FofficerPurchase17,175 @ $291.12$5.0M+9.2% of holding+6.0%−2.0%203,796Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-15Gil KristendirectorPurchase3,700 @ $271.17$1.0M+3135.6% of holding+10.9%+8.4%3,818Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-14FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKdirectorPurchase1,533 @ $320.80$492K+34.1% of holding+0.2%−5.4%6,033Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Noseworthy John HdirectorPurchase300 @ $312.16$94K+5.2% of holding+0.2%−5.4%6,063Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-17FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $511.57$512K+28.6% of holding−2.3%−49.3%4,500Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

281 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-02DeVeydt Wayne SdirectorWithheld for tax1,20918,570Form 4
2026-08-11Stankiewicz Dennis AndrewofficerWithheld for tax23310,058Form 4
2026-07-01GARCIA PAUL RdirectorAward / grant1323,818Form 4
2026-07-01GARCIA PAUL RdirectorAward / grant883,906Form 4
2026-07-01Gil KristendirectorAward / grant2062,617Form 4
2026-07-01Gottlieb ScottdirectorAward / grant210659Form 4
2026-07-01MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIdirectorAward / grant25015,462Form 4
2026-07-01MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE MDdirectorAward / grant2207,876Form 4
2026-07-01Noseworthy John HdirectorAward / grant2067,616Form 4
2026-07-01FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKdirectorAward / grant22510,875Form 4
2026-07-01Baker Charles D.directorAward / grant2202,396Form 4
2026-06-23Conway Patrick HughdirectorAward / grant8216,997Form 4
2026-06-23FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKdirectorAward / grant6110,650Form 4
2026-06-23GARCIA PAUL RdirectorAward / grant133,686Form 4
2026-06-23Gil KristendirectorAward / grant82,411Form 4
2026-06-23Gottlieb ScottdirectorAward / grant3449Form 4
2026-06-23HEMSLEY STEPHEN JdirectorAward / grant4648,099Form 4
2026-06-23MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIdirectorAward / grant5015,212Form 4
2026-06-23MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE MDdirectorAward / grant417,656Form 4
2026-06-23McSweeney ErindirectorAward / grant4815,601Form 4
2026-06-23Noel Timothy JohnofficerAward / grant7617,651Form 4
2026-06-23Noseworthy John HdirectorAward / grant417,410Form 4
2026-06-23Stankiewicz Dennis AndrewofficerAward / grant5110,257Form 4
2026-06-23Zaetta Christopher RofficerAward / grant6115,860Form 4
2026-06-23Baker Charles D.directorAward / grant132,176Form 4
2026-06-23DeVeydt Wayne SdirectorAward / grant11219,779Form 4
2026-06-05Conway Patrick HughdirectorWithheld for tax68716,914Form 4
2026-06-03Zaetta Christopher RofficerWithheld for tax13416,582Form 4
2026-06-02Conway Patrick HughdirectorWithheld for tax20417,601Form 4
2026-04-01FLYNN TIMOTHY PATRICKdirectorAward / grant35010,589Form 4
2026-04-01GARCIA PAUL RdirectorAward / grant2063,536Form 4
2026-04-01GARCIA PAUL RdirectorAward / grant1373,673Form 4
2026-04-01Gil KristendirectorAward / grant3202,403Form 4
2026-04-01Gottlieb ScottdirectorAward / grant320446Form 4
2026-04-01Baker Charles D.directorAward / grant3432,163Form 4
2026-04-01MONTGOMERY RICE VALERIE MDdirectorAward / grant3437,615Form 4
2026-04-01MCNABB FREDERICK WILLIAM IIIdirectorAward / grant38815,162Form 4
2026-04-01Noseworthy John HdirectorAward / grant3207,369Form 4
2026-04-01HOOPER MICHELE JdirectorAward / grant20641,792Form 4
2026-03-17Gottlieb ScottdirectorAward / grant1126Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$15–50K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
John BoozmanSenatepurchase2026-07-132026-06-04$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousesale2026-07-092026-06-12$1–15K
Richard Dean Dr MccormickHousesale2026-07-092026-06-12$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousesale2026-07-072026-06-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-22$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-14$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-05-082026-04-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-20$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-04-072026-03-23$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.