UNFIUnited Natural Foods, Inc.Consumer Defensive · Food Distributionas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $46.30 · now $46.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UNFI has typically landed between $35.56 and $57.88 — a range of −23.2% to +25.0% from the issuance price $46.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($46.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UNFI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $46.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$35.56worst · -23.2%$57.88best · +25.0%
  • now $46.3 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $47.17 (+1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $42.81–$51.53
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $35.56–$57.88
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2018-11-16−58.7%−58.7%+0.0%
2018-11-15−57.3%−57.3%+0.0%
2018-11-21−56.3%−56.3%+1.7%
3 best
2020-04-14+128.2%+0.0%+128.2%
2020-05-07+114.3%+0.0%+114.3%
2020-05-05+101.1%+0.0%+118.9%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
+0.6%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
+3.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
+1.6%
n=20
May
60%
+6.0%
n=20
Jun
25%
−3.5%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.1%
n=20
Aug
45%
−0.7%
n=20
Sep
55%
+3.1%
n=20
Oct
60%
−0.1%
n=20
Nov
65%
+5.6%
n=20
Dec
55%
−2.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$56$262026-06-23: 1 insider sale, $516K — Bushway Mark2026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $250K — Benedict Danielle2026-01-05: 1 insider purchase, $67K — Pappas James C2026-01-02: 1 insider purchase, $506K — Pappas James C2025-12-22: 1 insider sale, $327K — Martin Louis Anthony2025-12-18: 1 insider sale, $141K — Esper Richard Eric2025-09-30: 2 insider sales, $411K — Benedict Danielle …2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $411K2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $468K2026-01: 2 open-market purchases, $573K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $250K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $516K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bushway Mark — Sale on 2026-06-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Benedict Danielle — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Pappas James C — Purchase on 2026-01-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pappas James C — Purchase on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Martin Louis Anthony — Sale on 2025-12-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Esper Richard Eric — Sale on 2025-12-18, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Benedict Danielle — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Benedict Danielle — Sale on 2025-09-30, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-23Bushway MarkofficerSale10,000 @ $51.56$516K−16.4% of holding−6.2%not yet — horizon still open51,119Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-06Benedict DanielleofficerSale4,807 @ $52.00$250K−4.7% of holding+6.7%not yet — horizon still open98,470Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-05Pappas James CdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $33.30$67K+1.0% of holding+16.6%+32.8%194,178Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-02Pappas James CdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $33.76$506K+8.5% of holding+16.8%+31.4%192,178Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-22Martin Louis AnthonyofficerSale9,439 @ $34.67$327K−10.4% of holding+0.9%+37.2%81,234Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-18Esper Richard EricofficerSale4,261 @ $33.08$141K−10.2% of holding+2.7%+46.8%37,369Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-30Benedict DanielleofficerSale6,250 @ $33.84$212K−6.2% of holding−1.4%+20.2%94,949Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-30Benedict DanielleofficerSale5,405 @ $37.00$200K−5.7% of holding−1.4%+20.2%89,544Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-12Bushway MarkofficerSale13,700 @ $32.00$438K−23.8% of holding−9.7%−24.9%43,793Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

95 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-10Luchini AlfredoofficerAward / grant34,00534,005Form 4
2026-09-08Benedict DanielleofficerAward / grant55,334153,804Form 4
2026-09-08Tarditi Giorgio MatteoofficerAward / grant98,455210,440Form 4
2026-09-08Bushway MarkofficerAward / grant48,82499,943Form 4
2026-09-08Hussain MahrukhofficerAward / grant55,334118,756Form 4
2026-09-08DOUGLAS J ALEXANDER JRdirectorAward / grant325,502807,167Form 4
2026-09-08Martin Louis AnthonyofficerAward / grant84,629165,863Form 4
2026-06-26Boyland Gloria R.directorGift2,00030,963Form 4
2026-06-07Tarditi Giorgio MatteoofficerWithheld for tax8,199111,985Form 4
2026-04-01Dinh Hong ThiofficerDisposition1,2214,246Form 4
2026-04-01Dinh Hong ThiofficerOption exercise1,2212,442Form 4
2026-04-01Dinh Hong ThiofficerOption exercise1,2215,467Form 4
2026-04-01Dinh Hong ThiofficerOption exercise1,2215,467Form 4
2026-04-01Dinh Hong ThiofficerOption exercise1,2212,442Form 4
2025-12-24FUNK MICHAEL SdirectorGift10093,934Form 4
2025-12-24FUNK MICHAEL SdirectorGift10093,834Form 4
2025-12-21DOUGLAS J ALEXANDER JRdirectorWithheld for tax18,360481,665Form 4
2025-12-21Martin Louis AnthonyofficerWithheld for tax4,85890,673Form 4
2025-12-21Benedict DanielleofficerWithheld for tax3,328103,277Form 4
2025-12-21Echols Matthew TofficerWithheld for tax3,12265,023Form 4
2025-12-21Hussain MahrukhofficerWithheld for tax3,10063,422Form 4
2025-12-21Bushway MarkofficerWithheld for tax2,45661,119Form 4
2025-12-21Esper Richard EricofficerWithheld for tax1,08244,721Form 4
2025-12-19DOUGLAS J ALEXANDER JRdirectorWithheld for tax14,469500,025Form 4
2025-12-19Tarditi Giorgio MatteoofficerWithheld for tax4,920120,184Form 4
2025-12-19Martin Louis AnthonyofficerWithheld for tax3,00295,531Form 4
2025-12-19Benedict DanielleofficerWithheld for tax2,341106,605Form 4
2025-12-19Hussain MahrukhofficerWithheld for tax2,25666,522Form 4
2025-12-19Bushway MarkofficerWithheld for tax2,03263,575Form 4
2025-12-19Echols Matthew TofficerWithheld for tax1,93368,145Form 4
2025-12-19Esper Richard EricofficerWithheld for tax96845,803Form 4
2025-12-18Blake Lynn S.directorAward / grant5,30724,685Form 4
2025-12-18Boyland Gloria R.directorAward / grant5,30732,963Form 4
2025-12-18STAHL JACK LdirectorAward / grant5,30765,640Form 4
2025-12-18Shamim MohammaddirectorAward / grant5,30729,947Form 4
2025-12-18FUNK MICHAEL SdirectorAward / grant5,30794,034Form 4
2025-12-18LOREE JAMES MdirectorAward / grant5,30724,685Form 4
2025-12-18Muehlbauer James LdirectorAward / grant5,30799,204Form 4
2025-12-18Pappas James CdirectorAward / grant5,30724,685Form 4
2025-12-18Dufresne Daphne JdirectorAward / grant5,30774,406Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.