Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.58 · now $15.58 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UMH has typically landed between $13.93 and $17.16 — a range of −10.6% to +10.2% from the issuance price $15.58.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.58) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UMH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.58 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.58 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.62 (+0.3%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.95–$16.29
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.93–$17.16
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −43.1% | −43.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −43.0% | −43.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −40.6% | −41.9% | +0.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-04-28 | +32.3% | +0.0% | +32.3% |
| 2009-04-29 | +28.4% | +0.0% | +30.6% |
| 2020-03-30 | +27.2% | −6.3% | +27.2% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+0.3%
n=20
Feb
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
70%
+1.1%
n=20
Apr
65%
+4.5%
n=20
May
30%
−0.6%
n=20
Jun
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Jul
55%
+3.3%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.9%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.4%
n=20
Oct
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Nov
50%
−0.0%
n=20
Dec
65%
+2.9%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Miller Kevin S. | officer | Purchase | 67 @ $14.88 | $1K | +0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,172 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Purchase | 67 @ $14.88 | $1K | +0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 34,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 500 @ $16.46 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Miller Kevin S. | officer | Purchase | 64 @ $15.63 | $1K | +0.3% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,105 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Purchase | 64 @ $15.63 | $1K | +0.2% of holding | −1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,197 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Miller Kevin S. | officer | Purchase | 68 @ $14.75 | $1K | +0.3% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-15 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Purchase | 68 @ $14.75 | $1K | +0.2% of holding | +5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 34,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-15 | Miller Kevin S. | officer | Purchase | 68 @ $14.63 | $1K | +0.3% of holding | +5.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 22,628 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Purchase | 133 @ $14.94 | $2K | +0.4% of holding | +5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 32,317 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 500 @ $14.50 | $7K | +1.5% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 33,566 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-27 | HIRSCH MATTHEW I | director | Purchase | 500 @ $14.48 | $7K | +0.8% of holding | −3.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,792 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-25 | QUIGLEY KENNETH K JR | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $14.34 | $36K | +6.3% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 42,367 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 33 @ $15.25 | $500 | +4.8% of holding | +0.9% | −13.1% | 719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-15 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 33 @ $15.25 | $500 | +5.7% of holding | +0.9% | −13.1% | 612 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-24 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $14.92 | $30K | +7.5% of holding | +2.9% | −5.6% | 28,737 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $15.00 | $30K | −100.0% of holding | +4.5% | −4.9% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 72 @ $13.88 | $1000 | +11.7% of holding | +4.4% | +4.0% | 687 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 72 @ $13.88 | $1000 | +14.2% of holding | +4.4% | +4.0% | 579 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-15 | Clark Todd J. | director | Purchase | 72 @ $13.88 | $1000 | +4.1% of holding | +4.4% | +4.0% | 1,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Sale | 20,000 @ $14.19 | $284K | −1.9% of holding | +3.8% | +9.7% | 1,054,568 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-07 | Clark Todd J. | director | Purchase | 527 @ $14.23 | $8K | +42.4% of holding | +3.8% | +9.7% | 1,770 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-29 | LANDY MICHAEL P | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $14.46 | $145K | +2.8% of holding | −5.2% | +2.3% | 362,052 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-26 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Sale | 22,100 @ $14.76 | $326K | −2.0% of holding | −4.3% | +4.6% | 1,074,568 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $15.25 | $153K | −0.9% of holding | −8.0% | −5.3% | 1,091,283 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | PRUITT ANGELA D. | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $16.06 | $26K | −13.9% of holding | −8.6% | −3.0% | 9,905 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Sale | 39,000 @ $15.97 | $623K | −94.3% of holding | −7.9% | −3.0% | 2,368 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Sale | 75,849 @ $16.32 | $1.2M | −64.7% of holding | −8.3% | −5.9% | 41,368 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Sale | 45,700 @ $16.40 | $749K | −4.0% of holding | −8.8% | −7.6% | 1,101,283 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-20 | BUTEWICZ AMY LYNN | director | Sale | 2,800 @ $16.95 | $47K | −19.7% of holding | −3.3% | −14.2% | 11,389 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $16.87 | $422K | −2.1% of holding | −4.4% | −24.3% | 1,140,265 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-19 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Sale | 25,000 @ $17.11 | $428K | −2.1% of holding | −2.2% | −24.0% | 1,165,265 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-15 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Sale | 39,974 @ $16.94 | $677K | −25.7% of holding | −3.1% | −24.2% | 115,627 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-09 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Sale | 59,826 @ $17.28 | $1.0M | −27.8% of holding | −5.7% | −29.3% | 155,601 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-08 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Sale | 70,852 @ $17.20 | $1.2M | −24.7% of holding | −5.8% | −30.5% | 215,427 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-03 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 3 @ $18.89 | $50 | +0.4% of holding | −12.9% | −45.7% | 597 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-17 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 58 @ $17.25 | $1000 | +13.5% of holding | −1.6% | −31.8% | 487 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-16 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Purchase | 54 @ $18.50 | $1000 | +10.2% of holding | −4.1% | −9.8% | 582 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-06 | BUTEWICZ AMY LYNN | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $19.84 | $36K | −14.4% of holding | −2.6% | −8.4% | 10,731 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
116 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Miller Kevin S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Miller Kevin S. | officer | Option exercise | 1,000 | 24,041 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | LANDY DANIEL O. | other | Option exercise | 22,400 | 134,964 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | LANDY DANIEL O. | other | Option exercise | 22,400 | 38,360 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | LANDY DANIEL O. | other | Option exercise | 11,000 | 112,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | LANDY DANIEL O. | other | Option exercise | 11,000 | 60,760 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | LANDY EUGENE W | director | Award / grant | 100,000 | 100,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | LANDY DANIEL O. | other | Award / grant | 75,000 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | LANDY MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 365,937 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 33,601 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | PRUITT ANGELA D. | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 15,555 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | QUIGLEY KENNETH K JR | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 44,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Levy Stuart | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 29,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | BUTEWICZ AMY LYNN | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 17,298 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 35,352 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Clark Todd J. | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 5,787 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | HIRSCH MATTHEW I | director | Award / grant | 1,284 | 62,827 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-06 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Gift | 7,932 | 997,579 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-06 | CHEW ANNA T | director | Gift | 10,000 | 1,060,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-02 | CHEW ANNA T | director | Gift | 5,000 | 1,070,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | QUIGLEY KENNETH K JR | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 39,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Clark Todd J. | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 4,463 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 33,066 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | BUTEWICZ AMY LYNN | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 15,785 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | LANDY MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 364,653 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Levy Stuart | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 28,138 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 31,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | HIRSCH MATTHEW I | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 60,292 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-24 | PRUITT ANGELA D. | director | Award / grant | 1,381 | 14,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Gift | 13,000 | 28,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | LANDY SAMUEL A | director | Award / grant | 34,122 | 1,002,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | CHEW ANNA T | director | Award / grant | 26,658 | 1,075,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Taft Brett | officer | Award / grant | 4,905 | 128,144 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-30 | Koster Craig | officer | Award / grant | 4,159 | 119,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Mitchell William Edward | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Carus Jeffrey A | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Clark Todd J. | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | LANDY MICHAEL P | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | Levy Stuart | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-01-21 | BUTEWICZ AMY LYNN | director | Award / grant | 12,000 | 12,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.