Issued 2026-09-16 at $134.20 · now $134.20 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UMBF has typically landed between $119.35 and $152.82 — a range of −11.1% to +13.9% from the issuance price $134.20.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($134.20) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UMBF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $134.2 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $134.2 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $135.76 (+1.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $128.74–$142.79
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $119.35–$152.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −36.9% | −36.9% | +0.0% |
| 2023-02-15 | −36.0% | −36.0% | +0.3% |
| 2023-03-03 | −35.2% | −35.2% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +36.8% | −5.7% | +36.8% |
| 2020-05-06 | +35.3% | −5.4% | +35.3% |
| 2009-03-05 | +32.9% | −0.1% | +35.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
65%
−0.2%
n=20
Feb
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Mar
55%
−0.7%
n=20
Apr
70%
+3.8%
n=20
May
60%
−0.6%
n=20
Jun
55%
+1.8%
n=20
Jul
65%
+2.7%
n=20
Aug
40%
−0.6%
n=20
Sep
40%
−1.2%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.0%
n=20
Nov
75%
+4.1%
n=20
Dec
70%
+1.3%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | GRAVES GREG M | director | Purchase | 573 @ $139.60 | $80K | +1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 40,463 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Peterman Tamara | director | Purchase | 394 @ $139.60 | $55K | +3.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,680 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Terry Thomas S | officer | Sale | 5,713 @ $151.77 | $867K | −15.7% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,689 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Shankar Ram | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $151.61 | $303K | −6.2% of holding | −9.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Murphy Susan G | director | Sale | 902 @ $145.50 | $131K | −7.8% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Murphy Susan G | director | Sale | 475 @ $145.66 | $69K | −4.0% of holding | −1.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Odgers David Carl | officer | Sale | 145 @ $147.30 | $21K | −2.2% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,538 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 15,062 @ $148.55 | $2.2M | −1.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,491,138 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Wilson Uma | officer | Sale | 4,145 @ $148.00 | $613K | −17.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,270 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Newton Nikki Farentino | officer | Sale | 1,999 @ $148.60 | $297K | −14.3% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,982 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Mason Phillip James | officer | Sale | 800 @ $147.00 | $118K | −8.3% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,894 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-04 | Newton Nikki Farentino | officer | Sale | 1 @ $148.72 | $149 | −0.0% of holding | −3.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,981 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 4,200 @ $147.27 | $619K | −43.0% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,561 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Beaird Robert Brian | officer | Sale | 1,600 @ $144.40 | $231K | −15.2% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,943 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-31 | Gallagher Kevin Charles | director | Sale | 360 @ $145.13 | $52K | −2.9% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,863 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Wilson Uma | officer | Sale | 922 @ $133.05 | $123K | −3.6% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,415 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-10 | Gallagher Kevin Charles | director | Sale | 381 @ $132.88 | $51K | −3.0% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 12,223 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-09 | Rine James D | officer | Sale | 7,172 @ $132.49 | $950K | −10.3% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,520 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | Rine James D | officer | Sale | 1,074 @ $133.22 | $143K | −1.7% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 61,446 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Gallagher Kevin Charles | director | Sale | 388 @ $129.30 | $50K | −3.0% of holding | −7.0% | +3.3% | 12,488 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 7,972 @ $128.04 | $1.0M | −0.5% of holding | −5.4% | +5.2% | 1,513,442 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 7,242 @ $129.19 | $936K | −0.5% of holding | −5.4% | +5.2% | 1,506,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $129.06 | $452K | −1.1% of holding | −5.4% | +5.2% | 318,350 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | GRAVES GREG M | director | Purchase | 220 @ $127.83 | $28K | +0.6% of holding | −5.4% | +5.2% | 39,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Peterman Tamara | director | Purchase | 154 @ $127.83 | $20K | +1.5% of holding | −5.4% | +5.2% | 10,102 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-11 | Rine James D | officer | Sale | 3,487 @ $119.03 | $415K | −4.7% of holding | −1.9% | +2.6% | 70,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-08 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 15,367 @ $114.58 | $1.8M | −1.0% of holding | +6.9% | +10.1% | 1,521,414 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-10 | Gallagher Kevin Charles | director | Sale | 460 @ $110.71 | $51K | −3.7% of holding | +7.0% | +6.0% | 12,090 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Newton Nikki Farentino | officer | Sale | 1,300 @ $106.09 | $138K | −8.7% of holding | +7.7% | +15.4% | 13,667 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | GRAVES GREG M | director | Purchase | 264 @ $106.41 | $28K | +0.7% of holding | +7.1% | +17.8% | 38,411 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Peterman Tamara | director | Purchase | 185 @ $106.41 | $20K | +2.1% of holding | +7.1% | +17.8% | 9,128 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 800 @ $122.66 | $98K | −8.9% of holding | −5.9% | −10.2% | 8,200 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 100 @ $122.55 | $12K | −1.2% of holding | −5.9% | −10.2% | 8,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 100 @ $122.51 | $12K | −1.2% of holding | −5.9% | −10.2% | 8,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 3,400 @ $125.37 | $426K | −1.0% of holding | −6.3% | −12.3% | 323,866 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Wilson Uma | officer | Sale | 282 @ $123.11 | $35K | −1.2% of holding | −6.3% | −12.3% | 23,783 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 100 @ $124.92 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | −6.3% | −12.3% | 327,266 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Johnson Shannon Andresen | officer | Sale | 1,367 @ $120.58 | $165K | −3.9% of holding | −6.5% | −9.0% | 34,124 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | GRAVES GREG M | director | Purchase | 234 @ $120.44 | $28K | +0.6% of holding | −7.0% | −8.8% | 38,034 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Peterman Tamara | director | Purchase | 163 @ $120.44 | $20K | +1.9% of holding | −7.0% | −8.8% | 8,912 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-27 | Harris Amy | officer | Sale | 500 @ $122.02 | $61K | −6.4% of holding | −5.2% | −11.8% | 7,285 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-25 | Mason Phillip James | officer | Sale | 750 @ $120.97 | $91K | −7.8% of holding | −4.4% | −6.7% | 8,815 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | King Stacy H | officer | Sale | 1,400 @ $118.89 | $166K | −12.9% of holding | −4.1% | −8.1% | 9,472 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-22 | King Stacy H | officer | Sale | 100 @ $118.69 | $12K | −0.9% of holding | −4.1% | −8.1% | 10,872 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-13 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 15,523 @ $116.33 | $1.8M | −1.0% of holding | +1.8% | +5.1% | 1,536,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Beaird Robert Brian | officer | Sale | 1,205 @ $116.17 | $140K | −10.6% of holding | +1.8% | +5.1% | 10,147 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Gallagher Kevin Charles | director | Sale | 460 @ $110.63 | $51K | −3.5% of holding | +7.7% | +8.7% | 12,550 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | GRAVES GREG M | director | Purchase | 261 @ $107.58 | $28K | +0.7% of holding | +9.1% | +6.5% | 37,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Peterman Tamara | director | Purchase | 183 @ $107.58 | $20K | +2.1% of holding | +9.1% | +6.5% | 8,749 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 3,960 @ $101.80 | $403K | −1.0% of holding | +2.6% | −4.5% | 392,029 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-02 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 1,452 @ $101.84 | $148K | −0.5% of holding | +2.6% | −4.5% | 288,945 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | Wilson Uma | officer | Sale | 118 @ $107.92 | $13K | −0.5% of holding | −7.0% | −14.6% | 25,182 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | Wilson Uma | officer | Sale | 59 @ $108.10 | $6K | −0.2% of holding | −7.0% | −14.6% | 24,609 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-13 | Wilson Uma | officer | Sale | 23 @ $108.03 | $2K | −0.1% of holding | −7.0% | −14.6% | 25,159 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-07 | Newton Nikki Farentino | officer | Sale | 620 @ $102.37 | $63K | −3.7% of holding | −3.5% | +9.5% | 15,940 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-07 | Newton Nikki Farentino | officer | Sale | 380 @ $102.52 | $39K | −2.4% of holding | −3.5% | +9.5% | 15,560 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | GRAVES GREG M | director | Purchase | 255 @ $110.19 | $28K | +0.7% of holding | −3.5% | +2.4% | 37,288 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | Peterman Tamara | director | Purchase | 179 @ $110.19 | $20K | +2.1% of holding | −3.5% | +2.4% | 8,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 2,899 @ $108.55 | $315K | −0.9% of holding | +2.9% | +6.4% | 334,948 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-21 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Sale | 601 @ $108.89 | $65K | −0.2% of holding | +2.9% | +6.4% | 334,347 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
239 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Gift | 9,761 | 9,761 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Wilson Uma | officer | Option exercise | 922 | 25,337 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Wilson Uma | officer | Option exercise | 922 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Williams Leroy James Jr | director | Award / grant | 116 | 7,696 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | ROBBINS KRIS A | director | Award / grant | 116 | 4,791 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Peterman Tamara | director | Award / grant | 116 | 10,255 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Murphy Susan G | director | Award / grant | 116 | 12,012 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SOSLAND L JOSHUA | director | Award / grant | 116 | 14,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Davidson Janine | director | Award / grant | 116 | 4,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | BEERY ROBIN C | director | Award / grant | 116 | 8,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gallagher Kevin Charles | director | Award / grant | 116 | 12,604 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | GRAVES GREG M | director | Award / grant | 116 | 39,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Henderson Brad J. | director | Award / grant | 116 | 1,821 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Hopkins Jennifer K | director | Award / grant | 116 | 6,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gordon Lansford E. | director | Award / grant | 116 | 8,864 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Lazo Margaret | director | Award / grant | 116 | 4,562 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | SCHMIDT JOHN K | director | Award / grant | 116 | 33,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Murphy Timothy R. | director | Award / grant | 116 | 27,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Withheld for tax | 1,090 | 328,710 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Rine James D | officer | Withheld for tax | 311 | 69,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Shankar Ram | officer | Withheld for tax | 129 | 32,389 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Johnson Shannon Andresen | officer | Withheld for tax | 124 | 34,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Newton Nikki Farentino | officer | Withheld for tax | 87 | 13,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Wilson Uma | officer | Withheld for tax | 83 | 24,415 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Beaird Robert Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 70 | 10,543 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Harris Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 60 | 7,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Terry Thomas S | officer | Withheld for tax | 57 | 36,402 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Mason Phillip James | officer | Withheld for tax | 41 | 9,694 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-11 | Odgers David Carl | officer | Withheld for tax | 18 | 6,648 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | KEMPER J MARINER | director | Withheld for tax | 1,721 | 329,621 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Rine James D | officer | Withheld for tax | 832 | 69,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Johnson Shannon Andresen | officer | Withheld for tax | 215 | 34,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shankar Ram | officer | Withheld for tax | 204 | 32,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Newton Nikki Farentino | officer | Withheld for tax | 144 | 14,054 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Wilson Uma | officer | Withheld for tax | 131 | 24,485 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Beaird Robert Brian | officer | Withheld for tax | 112 | 10,602 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Harris Amy | officer | Withheld for tax | 97 | 7,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Terry Thomas S | officer | Withheld for tax | 89 | 36,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Mason Phillip James | officer | Withheld for tax | 65 | 9,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Odgers David Carl | officer | Withheld for tax | 29 | 6,661 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.