ULTAUlta Beauty, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $530.52 · now $530.52 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ULTA has typically landed between $458.51 and $607.51 — a range of −13.6% to +14.5% from the issuance price $530.52.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($530.52) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ULTA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $530.52 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$458.51worst · -13.6%$607.51best · +14.5%
  • now $530.52 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $538.21 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $506.2–$570.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $458.51–$607.51
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−57.0%−57.0%+0.9%
2020-02-21−52.2%−57.1%+0.0%
2020-02-20−50.9%−57.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+67.7%+0.0%+67.7%
2009-03-06+57.5%−2.5%+59.5%
2009-03-09+53.5%+0.0%+63.7%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$20.4B
market cap
$26.68
EPS (TTM)
17.8
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-27
next earnings
Revenue$12.4B
'20'25
Net income$1.2B
'20'25
Free cash flow$1.1B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr9.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr41.1%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.78
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 50 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $530.52$501.31$752.31
  • DCF (intrinsic)$518.62
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 23.8× · n=50$635.55
  • Analyst target · range $550.00–$735.00$635.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$530.52

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.3%
n=18
Feb
58%
+0.8%
n=19
Mar
74%
+3.1%
n=19
Apr
74%
+4.6%
n=19
May
63%
+2.1%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.7%
n=19
Jul
58%
−0.2%
n=19
Aug
47%
+0.1%
n=19
Sep
68%
+8.5%
n=19
Oct
44%
−2.8%
n=18
Nov
83%
+6.1%
n=18
Dec
67%
+2.5%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$707$4512026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $322K — Nagler Lorna2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $182K — MRKONIC GEORGE R JR2026-04-07: 1 insider sale, $244K — MRKONIC GEORGE R JR2025-09-04: 1 insider sale, $264K — Smith Mike C.2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $264K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $244K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $182K2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $322K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Nagler Lorna — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 3 days after the tradedirector MRKONIC GEORGE R JR — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector MRKONIC GEORGE R JR — Sale on 2026-04-07, filed same daydirector Smith Mike C. — Sale on 2025-09-04, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Nagler LornadirectorSale600 @ $537.31$322K−7.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open7,168Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-15MRKONIC GEORGE R JRdirectorSale383 @ $475.84$182K−13.7% of holding+1.8%not yet — horizon still open2,404Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-07MRKONIC GEORGE R JRdirectorSale452 @ $539.29$244K−15.9% of holding−10.8%not yet — horizon still open2,383Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-04Smith Mike C.directorSale500 @ $528.43$264K−18.1% of holding+1.7%+17.9%2,263Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-04-01Caro Jodi JofficerSale902 @ $369.16$333K−10.6% of holding+5.5%+28.9%7,632Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-20Steelman KeciadirectorPurchase1,440 @ $346.89$500K+9.3% of holding+16.1%+34.6%16,992Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

66 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01GARCIA KELLY EdirectorAward / grant3,5653,565Form 4
2026-09-01GARCIA KELLY EdirectorAward / grant2,9335,083Form 4
2026-09-01Olson Brieane LeedirectorAward / grant271271Form 4
2026-06-10MRKONIC GEORGE R JRdirectorAward / grant4042,787Form 4
2026-06-10Nagler LornadirectorAward / grant4047,768Form 4
2026-06-10Ruiz GiseldirectorAward / grant404787Form 4
2026-06-10Smith Mike C.directorAward / grant4042,667Form 4
2026-06-10Brok MartindirectorAward / grant4041,681Form 4
2026-06-10GARCIA KELLY EdirectorAward / grant4042,150Form 4
2026-06-10Halligan Catherine AnndirectorAward / grant4042,464Form 4
2026-06-10LITTLE PATRICIA AdirectorAward / grant4041,670Form 4
2026-06-10Landry Stephenie LeedirectorAward / grant404681Form 4
2026-03-31Casares Rene G.officerAward / grant1,2633,116Form 4
2026-03-31Casares Rene G.officerAward / grant4,2984,298Form 4
2026-03-31Steelman KeciadirectorAward / grant10,88942,489Form 4
2026-03-31Steelman KeciadirectorAward / grant37,07037,070Form 4
2026-03-31Steelman KeciadirectorAward / grant68,00068,000Form 4
2026-03-31Ryan Anita JaneofficerAward / grant4,9124,912Form 4
2026-03-31Ryan Anita JaneofficerAward / grant1,4439,141Form 4
2026-03-31Lialios ChristopherofficerAward / grant757757Form 4
2026-03-31Lialios ChristopherofficerAward / grant5193,550Form 4
2026-03-31DelOrefice ChristopherdirectorAward / grant14,36314,363Form 4
2026-03-31DelOrefice ChristopherdirectorAward / grant4,2199,693Form 4
2026-03-15Steelman KeciadirectorWithheld for tax1,49131,600Form 4
2026-03-15Steelman KeciadirectorWithheld for tax39333,091Form 4
2026-03-15Ryan Anita JaneofficerWithheld for tax1897,698Form 4
2026-03-15Ryan Anita JaneofficerWithheld for tax807,887Form 4
2026-02-12Steelman KeciadirectorAward / grant3,41633,484Form 4
2026-02-12Ryan Anita JaneofficerAward / grant6447,967Form 4
2025-12-15Halligan Catherine AnndirectorGift3402,060Form 4
2025-12-09DelOrefice ChristopherdirectorAward / grant1,8251,825Form 4
2025-12-09DelOrefice ChristopherdirectorAward / grant3,6495,474Form 4
2025-09-01Landry Stephenie LeedirectorAward / grant277277Form 4
2025-09-01Brok MartindirectorAward / grant2771,277Form 4
2025-06-11COLLINS MICHELLE LdirectorAward / grant3832,303Form 4
2025-06-11Halligan Catherine AnndirectorAward / grant3832,400Form 4
2025-06-11LITTLE PATRICIA AdirectorAward / grant3831,765Form 4
2025-06-11MRKONIC GEORGE R JRdirectorAward / grant3832,835Form 4
2025-06-11Nagler LornadirectorAward / grant3837,364Form 4
2025-06-11Ruiz GiseldirectorAward / grant383383Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Maria Elvira SalazarHousepurchase2026-04-212026-03-19$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-03-092026-02-24$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousesale2026-01-152025-12-11$1–15K
Valerie HoyleHousesale2025-10-102025-09-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-02-062025-01-17$1–15K
Greg LandsmanHousesale2024-09-232024-08-14$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-09-062024-08-02$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.