Issued 2026-09-16 at $64.15 · now $64.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ULS has typically landed between $56.58 and $76.37 — a range of −11.8% to +19.0% from the issuance price $64.15.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
588 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-04-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($64.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ULS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $64.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $64.15 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $66.01 (+2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $60.95–$71.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $56.58–$76.37
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-08-03 | −19.3% | −19.3% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-30 | −19.2% | −19.7% | +0.0% |
| 2026-07-31 | −18.7% | −19.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-04-21 | +35.2% | +0.0% | +37.1% |
| 2025-04-08 | +32.8% | +0.0% | +32.8% |
| 2025-04-16 | +31.9% | −3.8% | +31.9% |
588 overlapping windows · 2024-04-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 10,495 @ $73.52 | $772K | −6.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 141,229 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 2,005 @ $74.43 | $149K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 139,224 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 5,590 @ $92.89 | $519K | −3.6% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 151,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 3,629 @ $91.02 | $330K | −2.2% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 160,595 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 3,281 @ $91.89 | $301K | −2.0% of holding | −19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 157,314 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 4,800 @ $97.92 | $470K | −2.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 171,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 3,600 @ $99.05 | $357K | −2.1% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 168,324 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $101.05 | $263K | −1.6% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 1,200 @ $100.34 | $120K | −0.7% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 167,124 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 300 @ $101.74 | $31K | −0.2% of holding | −6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 164,224 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | PEPPING KAREN K | officer | Sale | 725 @ $97.74 | $71K | −8.2% of holding | −14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,082 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Schjotz Gitte | officer | Sale | 9,865 @ $96.98 | $957K | −14.3% of holding | −8.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 59,341 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Schjotz Gitte | officer | Sale | 12,015 @ $99.71 | $1.2M | −14.8% of holding | +0.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 69,206 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 7,505 @ $99.60 | $748K | −4.0% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 181,719 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 4,995 @ $100.59 | $502K | −2.7% of holding | −0.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 176,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Uggetti Alberto | officer | Sale | 2,345 @ $99.89 | $234K | −22.8% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,962 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Hecker Friedrich | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $102.04 | $408K | −23.3% of holding | −11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 13,180 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Uggetti Alberto | officer | Sale | 6,100 @ $100.00 | $610K | −37.2% of holding | +1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,307 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Schjotz Gitte | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $103.96 | $832K | −9.0% of holding | −3.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,221 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 9,532 @ $91.43 | $872K | −4.7% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 191,242 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 2,968 @ $92.01 | $273K | −1.6% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 188,274 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-04-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 7,577 @ $85.84 | $650K | −3.6% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 200,774 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-01 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Sale | 4,923 @ $84.98 | $418K | −2.3% of holding | −1.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 208,351 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
277 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | D'Angelo Scott | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 2,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Schjotz Gitte | officer | Award / grant | 8 | 3,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Genovesi John A | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 2,718 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Shannon James M | director | Award / grant | 10 | 4,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Uggetti Alberto | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 1,895 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | GOTTSCHALK MARLA C | director | Award / grant | 10 | 4,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Genovesi John A | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 2,966 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Shannon James M | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Genovesi John A | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 1,955 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | PEPPING KAREN K | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | SUSMAN SALLY | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Hooper Charles W | director | Award / grant | 10 | 4,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dadakis Alex | officer | Award / grant | 12 | 5,932 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Award / grant | 58 | 28,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Hooper Charles W | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Hecker Friedrich | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMS GEORGE A | director | Award / grant | 10 | 4,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Torstad Elisabeth | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Uggetti Alberto | officer | Award / grant | 4 | 2,294 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Chapin Linda S | officer | Award / grant | 3 | 1,843 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dadakis Alex | officer | Award / grant | 21 | 10,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | SUSMAN SALLY | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Torstad Elisabeth | director | Award / grant | 10 | 4,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Robinson Ryan D | officer | Award / grant | 12 | 6,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Schjotz Gitte | officer | Award / grant | 6 | 3,387 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Schjotz Gitte | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 2,771 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Hooper Charles W | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | SUSMAN SALLY | director | Award / grant | 10 | 4,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | KENNEDY KEVIN | director | Award / grant | 10 | 4,979 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Scanlon Jennifer F. | director | Award / grant | 74 | 36,583 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Robinson Ryan D | officer | Award / grant | 18 | 8,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | DOLLIVE JAMES P | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | PEPPING KAREN K | officer | Award / grant | 1 | 928 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Robinson Ryan D | officer | Award / grant | 9 | 4,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Kini Vikram | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | D'Angelo Scott | officer | Award / grant | 5 | 2,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | GOTTSCHALK MARLA C | director | Award / grant | 4 | 2,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | GOTTSCHALK MARLA C | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | WILLIAMS GEORGE A | director | Award / grant | 5 | 2,814 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Dadakis Alex | officer | Award / grant | 7 | 3,494 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.