Issued 2026-09-16 at $18.84 · now $18.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ULH has typically landed between $15.23 and $23.86 — a range of −19.2% to +26.7% from the issuance price $18.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($18.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where ULH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $18.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $18.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.98 (+0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.22–$20.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.23–$23.86
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-25 | −49.0% | −49.0% | +0.7% |
| 2008-09-26 | −48.8% | −49.3% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-18 | −48.4% | −48.4% | +3.9% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-14 | +57.0% | +0.0% | +57.4% |
| 2026-03-12 | +56.2% | +0.0% | +64.2% |
| 2022-07-18 | +55.9% | +0.0% | +55.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-08 | BELANGER GRANT EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 958 | 2,644 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | BERES JUDE MARCUS | officer | Award / grant | 7,400 | 43,585 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | PHILLIPS TIMOTHY | director | Award / grant | 7,215 | 104,491 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | BELANGER GRANT EDWARD | director | Award / grant | 667 | 1,686 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Award / grant | 667 | 998 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Moroun Matthew J. | director | Award / grant | 667 | 2,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | MOROUN MATTHEW T | director | Award / grant | 667 | 2,235 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Urban Richard P | director | Award / grant | 445 | 12,013 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-05 | Regan Michael A. | director | Award / grant | 356 | 970 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-10 | BERES JUDE MARCUS | officer | Award / grant | 7,521 | 36,185 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-10 | PHILLIPS TIMOTHY | director | Award / grant | 5,887 | 97,276 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.