ULCCFrontier Group Holdings, Inc.Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.61 · now $5.61 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, ULCC has typically landed between $4.05 and $7.80 — a range of −27.9% to +39.1% from the issuance price $5.61.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,350 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-04-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.61) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where ULCC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.61 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.05worst · -27.9%$7.8best · +39.1%
  • now $5.61 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.43 (-3.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.57–$6.3
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.05–$7.8
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,350 windows spanning 2021-04-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2025-03-06−48.4%−48.4%+0.0%
2025-03-17−48.3%−48.6%+0.0%
2025-03-18−48.0%−48.0%+0.3%
3 best
2024-01-17+86.5%+0.0%+90.3%
2024-01-18+70.1%−2.1%+70.1%
2026-05-19+69.9%+0.0%+69.9%

1,350 overlapping windows · 2021-04-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+5.0%
n=5
Feb
20%
+3.1%
n=5
Mar
20%
−14.3%
n=5
Apr
20%
−12.8%
n=5
May
67%
+13.6%
n=6
Jun
33%
−0.7%
n=6
Jul
33%
+3.9%
n=6
Aug
33%
−8.5%
n=6
Sep
33%
−1.5%
n=6
Oct
40%
+1.1%
n=5
Nov
40%
+2.8%
n=5
Dec
80%
+9.1%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$8$32026-09-04: 2 insider sales, $65K — Schuller Steve, Clerc Alexandre2026-08-05: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Mitchell Mark Christopher2026-08-04: 4 insider sales, $1.6M — Stedke Trevor J., Diamond Howard, Clerc Alexandre, Wetzel Josh A2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $76K — Schuller Steve2026-07-31: 1 insider sale, $51K — Clerc Alexandre2026-07-09: 1 insider sale, $84.2M — Group Holdings - Frontier LLC2026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $60K — Schuller Steve2026-06-02: 1 insider sale, $30K — Clerc Alexandre2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $64K — Wetzel Josh A2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $450K — Stedke Trevor J.2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $30K — Schuller Steve2025-12-11: 1 insider sale, $478K — Biffle Barry2025-12-10: 2 insider sales, $134K — Biffle Barry, Schuller Steve2025-12-08: 1 insider sale, $554K — Biffle Barry2025-12-05: 1 insider sale, $226K — Biffle Barry2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $278K — Biffle Barry2025-09-09: 1 insider sale, $20K — Clerc Alexandre2025-09-05: 1 insider sale, $195K — Diamond Howard2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $183K — Diamond Howard2025-09-02: 6 insider sales, $3.9M — Biffle Barry, Genise Robert J., Diamond Howard, Schuller Steve …2025-08-29: 1 insider sale, $100K — Schroeter Robert2025-08-26: 1 insider sale, $25K — Clerc Alexandre2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $125K2025-09: 9 open-market sales, $4.3M2025-12: 6 open-market sales, $1.7M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $30K2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $514K2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $90K2026-07: 2 open-market sales, $84.3M2026-08: 6 open-market sales, $2.7M2026-09: 2 open-market sales, $65K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Schuller Steve — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Clerc Alexandre — Sale on 2026-09-04, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Mitchell Mark Christopher — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Stedke Trevor J. — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Diamond Howard — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Clerc Alexandre — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed same dayofficer Wetzel Josh A — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schuller Steve — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Clerc Alexandre — Sale on 2026-07-31, filed 4 days after the tradetenPercentOwner Group Holdings - Frontier LLC — Sale on 2026-07-09, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Schuller Steve — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Clerc Alexandre — Sale on 2026-06-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wetzel Josh A — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed same dayofficer Stedke Trevor J. — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Schuller Steve — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schuller Steve — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed same daydirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Clerc Alexandre — Sale on 2025-09-09, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Diamond Howard — Sale on 2025-09-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Diamond Howard — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Biffle Barry — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Genise Robert J. — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Diamond Howard — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schuller Steve — Sale on 2025-09-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Schroeter Robert — Sale on 2025-08-29, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Clerc Alexandre — Sale on 2025-08-26, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-04Schuller SteveofficerSale7,500 @ $6.00$45K−8.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open79,675Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-09-04Clerc AlexandreofficerSale3,480 @ $5.71$20K−9.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open34,008Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-08-05Mitchell Mark ChristopherofficerSale125,000 @ $8.09$1.0M−69.9% of holding−28.3%not yet — horizon still open53,785Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04Stedke Trevor J.officerSale167,277 @ $8.03$1.3M−100.0% of holding−27.9%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04Diamond HowardofficerSale24,195 @ $8.25$200K−15.4% of holding−27.9%not yet — horizon still open133,126Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04Clerc AlexandreofficerSale3,068 @ $8.17$25K−7.6% of holding−27.9%not yet — horizon still open37,488Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-04Wetzel Josh AofficerSale2,000 @ $8.00$16K−16.6% of holding−27.9%not yet — horizon still open10,061Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Schuller SteveofficerSale10,000 @ $7.55$76K−10.3% of holding−28.8%not yet — horizon still open87,175Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-31Clerc AlexandreofficerSale7,142 @ $7.13$51K−15.0% of holding−18.2%not yet — horizon still open40,556Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-09Group Holdings - Frontier LLCtenPercentOwnerSale11,700,000 @ $7.20$84.2M−34.0% of holding−7.0%not yet — horizon still open22,706,526Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05Schuller SteveofficerSale10,000 @ $6.00$60K−9.3% of holding+19.2%not yet — horizon still open97,175Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-02Clerc AlexandreofficerSale5,060 @ $5.93$30K−9.6% of holding+33.1%not yet — horizon still open47,698Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-21Wetzel Josh AofficerSale13,500 @ $4.75$64K−52.8% of holding+49.5%not yet — horizon still open12,061Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-07Stedke Trevor J.officerSale83,110 @ $5.41$450K−33.2% of holding+9.3%not yet — horizon still open167,277Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-06Schuller SteveofficerSale5,000 @ $6.00$30K−5.0% of holding−42.5%−8.5%94,926Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11Biffle BarrydirectorSale82,627 @ $5.78$478K−11.6% of holding−13.4%+3.3%631,836Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10Biffle BarrydirectorSale17,373 @ $6.01$104K−2.4% of holding−10.7%−1.3%714,463Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-10Schuller SteveofficerSale5,000 @ $6.00$30K−6.1% of holding−10.7%−1.3%77,312Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08Biffle BarrydirectorSale100,000 @ $5.54$554K−12.0% of holding−14.5%−7.1%731,836Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-05Biffle BarrydirectorSale44,813 @ $5.05$226K−5.1% of holding−9.4%+14.7%831,836Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-04Biffle BarrydirectorSale55,187 @ $5.04$278K−5.9% of holding−5.4%+11.7%876,649Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-09Clerc AlexandreofficerSale3,800 @ $5.33$20K−59.1% of holding−17.2%−36.5%2,627Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-05Diamond HowardofficerSale35,401 @ $5.50$195K−32.3% of holding−14.5%−32.4%74,195Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-09-03Diamond HowardofficerSale31,503 @ $5.80$183K−22.3% of holding−26.3%−40.1%109,596Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-02Biffle BarrydirectorSale423,882 @ $5.63$2.4M−34.6% of holding−30.2%−38.1%800,000Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Biffle BarrydirectorSale158,975 @ $5.58$887K−100.0% of holding−30.2%−38.1%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Biffle BarrydirectorSale48,949 @ $5.63$276K−100.0% of holding−30.2%−38.1%0Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Genise Robert J.directorSale30,000 @ $5.52$166K−8.3% of holding−30.2%−38.1%330,534Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Diamond HowardofficerSale26,306 @ $5.67$149K−15.7% of holding−30.2%−38.1%141,099Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-02Schuller SteveofficerSale10,000 @ $6.00$60K−13.5% of holding−30.2%−38.1%64,330Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-29Schroeter RobertofficerSale21,055 @ $4.75$100K−35.7% of holding−13.4%−25.7%37,914Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-26Clerc AlexandreofficerSale5,485 @ $4.58$25K−46.0% of holding−3.9%−9.5%6,427Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-02Clerc AlexandreofficerSale12,000 @ $3.89$47K−50.2% of holding−5.0%−0.2%11,912Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-07Clerc AlexandreofficerSale15,152 @ $6.63$101K−38.8% of holding−33.9%−32.3%23,912Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06Diamond HowardofficerSale8,481 @ $7.11$60K−4.8% of holding−36.9%−36.5%167,405Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

265 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-15Steele Barron ElliotdirectorAward / grant22,28422,284Form 4
2026-05-14FRANKE WILLIAM AdirectorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14FRANKE WILLIAM AdirectorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14HAN BERNARD LdirectorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Franke Brian H.directorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Salcido Anthony DaviddirectorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Franke Brian H.directorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Wolff Alejandro DanieldirectorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Salcido Anthony DaviddirectorOption exercise6,7210Form 4
2026-05-14HAN BERNARD LdirectorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Pineda Patricia SalasdirectorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Pineda Patricia SalasdirectorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Lipson NancydirectorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Kumpf OfeliadirectorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Kumpf OfeliadirectorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Connor Josh T.directorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Connor Josh T.directorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Wolff Alejandro DanieldirectorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Genise Robert J.directorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14Lipson NancydirectorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Genise Robert J.directorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Broderick Andrew S.directorOption exercise34,2300Form 4
2026-05-14Broderick Andrew S.directorAward / grant32,99032,990Form 4
2026-05-14FRANKE WILLIAM AdirectorOption exercise34,23067,362,528Form 4
2026-05-14HAN BERNARD LdirectorOption exercise34,230448,857Form 4
2026-05-14Franke Brian H.directorOption exercise34,2304,529,345Form 4
2026-05-14Pineda Patricia SalasdirectorOption exercise34,230149,763Form 4
2026-05-14Franke Brian H.directorOption exercise34,2304,529,345Form 4
2026-05-14FRANKE WILLIAM AdirectorOption exercise34,23067,362,528Form 4
2026-05-14HAN BERNARD LdirectorOption exercise34,230448,857Form 4
2026-05-14Wolff Alejandro DanieldirectorOption exercise34,230124,413Form 4
2026-05-14Lipson NancydirectorOption exercise34,23060,524Form 4
2026-05-14Broderick Andrew S.directorOption exercise34,230882,671Form 4
2026-05-14Genise Robert J.directorOption exercise34,230364,764Form 4
2026-05-14Connor Josh T.directorOption exercise34,230175,735Form 4
2026-05-14Kumpf OfeliadirectorOption exercise34,23098,409Form 4
2026-05-14Salcido Anthony DaviddirectorOption exercise6,7216,721Form 4
2026-05-14Salcido Anthony DaviddirectorOption exercise6,7216,721Form 4
2026-05-14Wolff Alejandro DanieldirectorOption exercise34,230124,413Form 4
2026-05-14Genise Robert J.directorOption exercise34,230364,764Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.