Issued 2026-09-16 at $7.56 · now $7.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UGP has typically landed between $6.35 and $9.20 — a range of −16.0% to +21.7% from the issuance price $7.56.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($7.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UGP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $7.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $7.56 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $7.72 (+2.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $7.14–$8.31
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $6.35–$9.2
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −58.6% | −58.6% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −57.8% | −57.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-19 | −56.2% | −58.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +73.2% | −0.5% | +73.2% |
| 2020-05-08 | +58.7% | −8.3% | +59.7% |
| 2020-05-11 | +57.1% | −3.6% | +67.9% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Linden Leonardo Remiao | officer | Sale | 60,000 @ $7.57 | $454K | −18.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 257,135 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-10 | Rabelo Pedro Guedes | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $7.58 | $227K | −34.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 57,898 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Amaral Decio de Sampaio | officer | Sale | 8,000 @ $6.93 | $55K | −5.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 151,432 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Hachem Andre Saleme | officer | Sale | 585 @ $6.51 | $4K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 64,875 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
33 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Linden Leonardo Remiao | officer | Award / grant | 43,913 | 1,374,081 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-28 | Amaral Decio de Sampaio | officer | Disposition | 47,294 | 159,432 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Zaia Andre Gustavo | officer | Award / grant | 8,253 | 28,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | de Souza Fernanda Teves | officer | Award / grant | 8,760 | 146,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Nogueira Julio Cesar | officer | Award / grant | 10,267 | 140,247 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | de Oliveira Manuella Carvalho Campos | officer | Award / grant | 9,082 | 124,378 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Mascarenhas Marina Guimaraes Moreira | officer | Award / grant | 10,069 | 286,590 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Pizzinatto Rodrigo de Almeida | officer | Award / grant | 68,445 | 1,885,179 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Costa Tabajara Bertelli | officer | Award / grant | 37,908 | 1,452,513 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tomelin Fulvius Alexandre Pereira | officer | Award / grant | 23,166 | 61,910 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Palhares Alexandre Mendes | officer | Award / grant | 25,798 | 259,234 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Rabelo Pedro Guedes | officer | Award / grant | 9,674 | 158,942 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Zaia Andre Gustavo | officer | Award / grant | 9,111 | 9,111 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Nogueira Julio Cesar | officer | Award / grant | 43,153 | 326,486 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Nogueira Julio Cesar | officer | Disposition | 43,153 | 129,980 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Linden Leonardo Remiao | officer | Award / grant | 149,326 | 317,135 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Linden Leonardo Remiao | officer | Disposition | 149,326 | 1,330,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Zaia Andre Gustavo | officer | Disposition | 9,111 | 20,569 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Lutz Marcos M | director | Disposition | 634,346 | 8,039,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Rabelo Pedro Guedes | officer | Disposition | 40,865 | 149,268 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Rabelo Pedro Guedes | officer | Award / grant | 40,865 | 87,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Lutz Marcos M | director | Award / grant | 634,346 | 636,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Costa Tabajara Bertelli | officer | Award / grant | 90,386 | 482,849 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Costa Tabajara Bertelli | officer | Disposition | 90,386 | 1,414,605 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Amaral Decio de Sampaio | officer | Award / grant | 78,824 | 206,726 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Amaral Decio de Sampaio | officer | Disposition | 78,824 | 1,079,898 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Pizzinatto Rodrigo de Almeida | officer | Award / grant | 134,638 | 658,714 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Pizzinatto Rodrigo de Almeida | officer | Disposition | 134,638 | 1,816,734 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | de Souza Fernanda Teves | officer | Award / grant | 28,769 | 57,214 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | de Souza Fernanda Teves | officer | Disposition | 28,769 | 137,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Hachem Andre Saleme | officer | Award / grant | 40,275 | 65,460 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-20 | Hachem Andre Saleme | officer | Disposition | 40,275 | 97,254 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Lutz Marcos M | director | Award / grant | 1,064,639 | 9,738,388 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.