UGIUGI CorporationUtilities · Regulated Gasas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $38.18 · now $38.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UGI has typically landed between $33.56 and $42.68 — a range of −12.1% to +11.8% from the issuance price $38.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($38.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UGI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $38.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$33.56worst · -12.1%$42.68best · +11.8%
  • now $38.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $38.39 (+0.6%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $36.61–$40.18
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $33.56–$42.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−43.9%−43.9%+0.0%
2020-02-18−43.6%−43.6%+0.0%
2020-02-24−39.4%−42.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+30.7%+0.0%+30.7%
2020-05-06+28.3%+0.0%+28.3%
2024-10-30+25.7%−3.8%+25.7%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+0.8%
n=20
Feb
50%
−1.0%
n=20
Mar
55%
+0.2%
n=20
Apr
65%
+2.9%
n=20
May
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Jun
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Jul
60%
+1.9%
n=20
Aug
45%
−1.0%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.0%
n=20
Oct
65%
+1.3%
n=20
Nov
55%
+3.2%
n=20
Dec
50%
+1.4%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$40$312026-06-18: 1 insider sale, $852K — Shea-Ballay Kathleen2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $489K — Tematio Jean Felix2025-12-17: 1 insider sale, $192K — Hartz Joseph L.2025-12-05: 2 insider sales, $1.1M — O'Brien Sean …2025-11-26: 1 insider sale, $440K — Bell Hans G.2025-11-25: 1 insider sale, $580K — Hartz Joseph L.2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $1.0M2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $1.3M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $489K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $852K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Shea-Ballay Kathleen — Sale on 2026-06-18, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Tematio Jean Felix — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hartz Joseph L. — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer O'Brien Sean — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer O'Brien Sean — Sale on 2025-12-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Bell Hans G. — Sale on 2025-11-26, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Hartz Joseph L. — Sale on 2025-11-25, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18Shea-Ballay KathleenofficerSale25,360 @ $33.62$852K−100.0% of holding+7.7%not yet — horizon still open0Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-02-11Tematio Jean FelixofficerSale12,840 @ $38.07$489K−64.9% of holding+1.7%−18.6%6,952Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-17Hartz Joseph L.officerSale5,000 @ $38.45$192K−13.0% of holding−4.2%−21.8%33,492Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-05O'Brien SeanofficerSale23,773 @ $37.65$895K−82.8% of holding−1.8%−14.1%4,936Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-05O'Brien SeanofficerSale4,936 @ $37.65$186K−100.0% of holding−1.8%−14.1%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-26Bell Hans G.officerSale11,300 @ $38.91$440K−38.3% of holding−3.1%−24.6%18,220Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25Hartz Joseph L.officerSale15,000 @ $38.68$580K−30.9% of holding−3.3%−20.8%33,492Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-27Sharp MichaelofficerPurchase4,806 @ $33.30$160Kownership Δ n/a+4.8%−5.1%4,806Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-18Shea-Ballay KathleenofficerOption exercise25,36025,360Form 4
2026-06-18Shea-Ballay KathleenofficerOption exercise25,36012,680Form 4
2026-04-10O'Brien SeanofficerWithheld for tax1,5764,084Form 4
2026-04-10O'Brien SeanofficerOption exercise5,6605,660Form 4
2026-04-10O'Brien SeanofficerOption exercise5,6600Form 4
2026-02-11Tematio Jean FelixofficerOption exercise12,84019,792Form 4
2026-02-11Tematio Jean FelixofficerOption exercise12,8406,420Form 4
2026-01-30Dosch Ted AdirectorAward / grant4,36436,096Form 4
2026-01-30Ruiz MelaniedirectorAward / grant4,36411,275Form 4
2026-01-30Bort M ShawndirectorAward / grant4,36485,478Form 4
2026-01-30Bingenheimer DaviddirectorAward / grant4,36411,275Form 4
2026-01-30Longhi MariodirectorAward / grant7,48030,792Form 4
2026-01-30Romano Kelly AdirectorAward / grant4,36430,005Form 4
2026-01-30Harris Alan NdirectorAward / grant4,36433,377Form 4
2026-01-30Seage SantiagodirectorAward / grant4,36416,585Form 4
2026-01-30Faraca Tina VeronicadirectorAward / grant4,36412,303Form 4
2026-01-11Hartz Joseph L.officerWithheld for tax1,46136,421Form 4
2026-01-11Bell Hans G.officerWithheld for tax1,11820,412Form 4
2026-01-11Tematio Jean FelixofficerWithheld for tax9606,952Form 4
2026-01-11Fazio JulieofficerWithheld for tax805545Form 4
2026-01-11Hartz Joseph L.officerOption exercise4,3900Form 4
2026-01-11Fazio JulieofficerOption exercise1,3500Form 4
2026-01-11Tematio Jean FelixofficerOption exercise2,9300Form 4
2026-01-11Bell Hans G.officerOption exercise3,31021,530Form 4
2026-01-11Fazio JulieofficerOption exercise1,3501,350Form 4
2026-01-11Bell Hans G.officerOption exercise3,3100Form 4
2026-01-11Tematio Jean FelixofficerOption exercise2,9307,912Form 4
2026-01-11Hartz Joseph L.officerOption exercise4,39037,882Form 4
2026-01-01Tematio Jean FelixofficerAward / grant4,5694,569Form 4
2026-01-01Bell Hans G.officerAward / grant8,0398,039Form 4
2026-01-01Bell Hans G.officerAward / grant5,3445,344Form 4
2026-01-01O'Brien SeanofficerAward / grant30,54730,547Form 4
2026-01-01O'Brien SeanofficerAward / grant20,30520,305Form 4
2026-01-01FLEXON ROBERT CdirectorAward / grant90,43590,435Form 4
2026-01-01FLEXON ROBERT CdirectorAward / grant60,11360,113Form 4
2026-01-01Fazio JulieofficerAward / grant4,8244,824Form 4
2026-01-01Fazio JulieofficerAward / grant3,2063,206Form 4
2026-01-01Hartz Joseph L.officerAward / grant8,0398,039Form 4
2026-01-01Hartz Joseph L.officerAward / grant5,3445,344Form 4
2026-01-01Sharp MichaelofficerAward / grant12,05812,058Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.