UFCS · TickerCove

UFCSUnited Fire Group, Inc.Financial Services · Insurance - Property & Casualtyas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $54.82 · now $54.82 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UFCS has typically landed between $47.86 and $64.29 — a range of −12.7% to +17.3% from the issuance price $54.82.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($54.82) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$54.82 · 95% of range

$29.6 low$56.1 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.2%

typical move · IQR 10.8%

−12.7%worst (p90)+17.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where UFCS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $54.82 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $54.82 (+0.0%)
typical $55.47 (+1.2%)
middle 50% $52.52–$58.42
90% range $47.86–$64.29

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-13	−44.2%	−44.2%	+0.0%
2020-02-11	−40.5%	−40.5%	+0.0%
2008-09-26	−37.4%	−37.4%	+0.0%
3 best
2008-11-20	+114.4%	+0.0%	+120.3%
2008-11-19	+94.5%	−11.7%	+94.5%
2008-11-21	+82.1%	+0.0%	+94.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

40%

−2.0%

n=20

Feb

75%

+2.0%

n=20

Mar

65%

+3.3%

n=20

Apr

45%

−1.1%

n=20

May

60%

+1.6%

n=20

Jun

60%

−0.6%

n=20

Jul

45%

−0.0%

n=20

Aug

55%

+1.4%

n=20

Sep

50%

−0.2%

n=20

Oct

45%

−1.4%

n=20

Nov

60%

+4.6%

n=20

Dec

55%

+3.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-03	Carlton Scott L	director	Sale	9,777 @ $55.52	$543K	−4.6% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	200,552	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-06-05	MILLIGAN GEORGE D	director	Purchase	4,500 @ $45.23	$204K	+5.3% of holding	+13.9%	not yet — horizon still open	90,034	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04	Drahozal Christopher R	director	Sale	4,250 @ $38.49	$164K	−1.0% of holding	+0.3%	+28.8%	429,113	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-03	Drahozal Christopher R	director	Sale	4,250 @ $37.94	$161K	−1.0% of holding	−1.2%	+28.8%	433,363	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02	Drahozal Christopher R	director	Sale	4,250 @ $38.84	$165K	−1.0% of holding	−0.7%	+25.4%	437,613	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-02	McIntyre Dee Ann	tenPercentOwner	Sale	4,250 @ $38.84	$165K	−1.0% of holding	−0.7%	+25.4%	437,613	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-18	BESONG JOHN PAUL E	director	Sale	1,300 @ $32.26	$42K	−5.0% of holding	−6.7%	+14.3%	24,494	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-18	BESONG JOHN PAUL E	director	Sale	1,150 @ $32.25	$37K	−4.3% of holding	−6.7%	+14.3%	25,794	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-11	Martin Eric J	officer	Purchase	500 @ $29.00	$15K	+1.4% of holding	+1.8%	+12.4%	35,155	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06	Drahozal Christopher R	director	Sale	2,500 @ $28.33	$71K	−0.6% of holding	+6.3%	−2.9%	441,863	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-06	McIntyre Dee Ann	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,500 @ $28.33	$71K	+0.6% of holding	+6.3%	−2.9%	441,863	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-05	McIntyre Dee Ann	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,500 @ $28.09	$70K	−0.6% of holding	+10.0%	+1.3%	444,363	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-05	Drahozal Christopher R	director	Sale	2,500 @ $28.09	$70K	−0.6% of holding	+10.0%	+1.3%	444,363	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-04	McIntyre Dee Ann	tenPercentOwner	Sale	4,250 @ $38.49	$164K	−1.0% of holding	+9.3%	−0.3%	429,113	Form 4 · filed 365 days after the trade
2025-03-04	Drahozal Christopher R	director	Sale	2,500 @ $27.31	$68K	−0.6% of holding	+9.3%	−0.3%	446,863	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-04	McIntyre Dee Ann	tenPercentOwner	Sale	2,500 @ $27.31	$68K	−0.6% of holding	+9.3%	−0.3%	446,863	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-03	McIntyre Dee Ann	tenPercentOwner	Sale	4,250 @ $37.94	$161K	−1.0% of holding	+10.6%	+0.5%	433,363	Form 4 · filed 366 days after the trade
2025-02-14	MILLIGAN GEORGE D	director	Purchase	3,500 @ $26.97	$94K	+4.6% of holding	+17.0%	+10.5%	79,446	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-14	NOYCE JAMES	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $26.97	$54K	+7.9% of holding	+17.0%	+10.5%	27,316	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-19	Ruehle Corey Lynn	officer	Sale	2,664 @ $29.60	$79K	−17.5% of holding	−17.5%	−9.2%	12,523	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-08-14	Woolstenhulme Micah G	officer	Purchase	2,500 @ $19.20	$48K	+6.7% of holding	+4.1%	+26.8%	39,940	Form 4 · filed 155 days after the trade
2024-06-10	Walsh Kelly A	officer	Sale	4,700 @ $21.11	$99K	−22.5% of holding	−7.1%	+30.6%	16,189	Form 4 · filed 226 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

90 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Vogt Adam M	officer	Withheld for tax	159	6,928	Form 4
2026-05-20	Clancy Brenda Kay	director	Award / grant	2,082	22,140	Form 4
2026-05-20	Foran Matthew R	director	Award / grant	2,082	15,264	Form 4
2026-05-20	Drahozal Christopher R	director	Award / grant	2,082	53,775	Form 4
2026-05-20	Voss Susan E	director	Award / grant	2,082	26,140	Form 4
2026-05-20	NOYCE JAMES	director	Award / grant	2,082	32,818	Form 4
2026-05-20	MILLIGAN GEORGE D	director	Award / grant	2,082	85,534	Form 4
2026-05-20	Green Mark A.	director	Award / grant	2,082	16,064	Form 4
2026-05-20	McBride Lura E	director	Award / grant	2,082	18,463	Form 4
2026-05-20	Spencer Gilda Livingston	director	Award / grant	2,082	4,506	Form 4
2026-05-20	Carlton Scott L	director	Award / grant	2,082	210,329	Form 4
2026-05-15	Hernandez Steven Dennis	officer	Withheld for tax	485	19,979	Form 4
2026-03-20	Leidwinger Kevin James	director	Withheld for tax	3,925	83,373	Form 4
2026-03-20	Stephenson Julie A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,692	54,484	Form 4
2026-03-20	Leidwinger Kevin James	director	Withheld for tax	1,309	82,064	Form 4
2026-03-20	Martin Eric J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,069	33,686	Form 4
2026-03-20	Madsen Sarah E	officer	Withheld for tax	613	13,481	Form 4
2026-03-15	Hernandez Steven Dennis	officer	Withheld for tax	2,858	20,464	Form 4
2026-03-02	Rawlins Brian Keith	officer	Withheld for tax	721	7,391	Form 4
2026-02-24	Leidwinger Kevin James	director	Award / grant	9,141	96,902	Form 4
2026-02-24	Leidwinger Kevin James	director	Withheld for tax	5,659	87,298	Form 4
2026-02-24	Leidwinger Kevin James	director	Withheld for tax	3,945	92,957	Form 4
2026-02-24	Stephenson Julie A	officer	Award / grant	3,540	58,284	Form 4
2026-02-24	Martin Eric J	officer	Award / grant	2,212	35,378	Form 4
2026-02-24	Madsen Sarah E	officer	Award / grant	1,343	14,475	Form 4
2026-02-24	Stephenson Julie A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,246	56,176	Form 4
2026-02-24	Martin Eric J	officer	Withheld for tax	900	33,166	Form 4
2026-02-24	Stephenson Julie A	officer	Withheld for tax	862	57,422	Form 4
2026-02-24	Martin Eric J	officer	Withheld for tax	623	34,755	Form 4
2026-02-24	Madsen Sarah E	officer	Withheld for tax	551	13,132	Form 4
2026-02-24	Madsen Sarah E	officer	Withheld for tax	381	14,094	Form 4
2026-02-21	Leidwinger Kevin James	director	Withheld for tax	3,114	87,761	Form 4
2026-02-21	Stephenson Julie A	officer	Withheld for tax	1,191	54,744	Form 4
2026-02-21	Martin Eric J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,089	34,066	Form 4
2026-02-21	Madsen Sarah E	officer	Withheld for tax	660	13,683	Form 4
2026-02-21	Hernandez Steven Dennis	officer	Withheld for tax	542	23,322	Form 4
2026-02-21	Vogt Adam M	officer	Withheld for tax	160	7,087	Form 4
2026-02-20	Leidwinger Kevin James	director	Award / grant	22,710	110,471	Form 4
2026-02-20	Stephenson Julie A	officer	Award / grant	9,109	63,853	Form 4
2026-02-20	Martin Eric J	officer	Award / grant	7,660	41,726	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i