UEUrban Edge PropertiesReal Estate · REIT - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.03 · now $20.03 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UE has typically landed between $17.89 and $22.24 — a range of −10.7% to +11.0% from the issuance price $20.03.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,921 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-01-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.03) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.03 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$17.89worst · -10.7%$22.24best · +11.0%
  • now $20.03 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $20.23 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.31–$21.15
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $17.89–$22.24
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,921 windows spanning 2015-01-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−60.0%−60.0%+0.0%
2020-02-20−55.3%−55.3%+0.0%
2020-03-05−55.3%−57.4%+0.0%
3 best
2020-10-27+47.8%−5.5%+47.8%
2020-10-28+47.0%−1.1%+54.6%
2020-11-06+45.6%+0.0%+56.4%

2,921 overlapping windows · 2015-01-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.8%
n=11
Feb
42%
+0.2%
n=12
Mar
33%
−3.9%
n=12
Apr
33%
+2.4%
n=12
May
58%
−1.7%
n=12
Jun
75%
+4.1%
n=12
Jul
58%
+2.1%
n=12
Aug
50%
−0.5%
n=12
Sep
25%
−1.9%
n=12
Oct
45%
−0.1%
n=11
Nov
64%
+6.1%
n=11
Dec
55%
−0.9%
n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$24$182026-05-11: 1 insider sale, $411K — Olson Jeffrey S2026-05-08: 1 insider sale, $3.5M — Olson Jeffrey S2026-05: 2 open-market sales, $3.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Olson Jeffrey S — Sale on 2026-05-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Olson Jeffrey S — Sale on 2026-05-08, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-11Olson Jeffrey SdirectorSale19,034 @ $21.62$411K−83.9% of holding+11.0%not yet — horizon still open3,665Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-08Olson Jeffrey SdirectorSale161,553 @ $21.73$3.5M−87.7% of holding+9.4%not yet — horizon still open22,699Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-13Milton Robert CofficerSale26,000 @ $18.78$488K−100.0% of holding−2.7%−12.5%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-18Olson Jeffrey SdirectorSale122,198 @ $20.54$2.5M−98.4% of holding+0.0%−4.5%1,931Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-14Olson Jeffrey SdirectorSale177,802 @ $20.95$3.7M−58.9% of holding−0.7%−9.9%124,129Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-11Olson Jeffrey SdirectorSale240,000 @ $22.45$5.4M−99.2% of holding−6.9%−15.7%1,931Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-05Olson Jeffrey SdirectorSale44,403 @ $22.55$1.0M−95.8% of holding−7.3%−14.8%1,931Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-04Olson Jeffrey SdirectorSale188,733 @ $22.81$4.3M−99.0% of holding−6.5%−15.4%1,931Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-07Drazin Andrea RosenthalofficerDisposition1,81511,698Form 4
2026-05-07Olson Jeffrey SdirectorConversion2,725118,356Form 4
2026-05-07Olson Jeffrey SdirectorConversion128,8300Form 4
2026-05-07Olson Jeffrey SdirectorConversion180,587184,252Form 4
2026-05-07Olson Jeffrey SdirectorConversion49,0320Form 4
2026-05-06RICE CATHERINEdirectorAward / grant5,71036,167Form 4
2026-05-06Sesler Douglas WilliamdirectorAward / grant6,4906,490Form 4
2026-05-06Jenkins Norman K.directorAward / grant6,4906,490Form 4
2026-05-06O'Shea Kevin P.directorAward / grant6,4906,490Form 4
2026-05-06BAGLIVO MARYdirectorAward / grant6,5276,527Form 4
2026-05-06GRAPSTEIN STEVEN HdirectorAward / grant7,1387,138Form 4
2026-05-06Sandstrom Katherine MdirectorAward / grant6,4906,490Form 4
2026-03-12Langer MarkdirectorAward / grant51,77451,774Form 4
2026-03-12Mooallem JeffreyofficerAward / grant64,72064,720Form 4
2026-03-12Olson Jeffrey SdirectorAward / grant216,951216,951Form 4
2026-03-09Drazin Andrea RosenthalofficerDisposition2,37613,513Form 4
2026-02-10Drazin Andrea RosenthalofficerWithheld for tax66515,889Form 4
2026-02-09Drazin Andrea RosenthalofficerWithheld for tax69616,554Form 4
2026-02-02Ohlberg HeatherofficerWithheld for tax1,6186,945Form 4
2026-02-02Drazin Andrea RosenthalofficerWithheld for tax74217,250Form 4
2026-01-27Langer MarkdirectorAward / grant30,94130,941Form 4
2026-01-27Drazin Andrea RosenthalofficerAward / grant8,5178,517Form 4
2026-01-27Mooallem JeffreyofficerAward / grant29,58329,583Form 4
2026-01-27Mooallem JeffreyofficerAward / grant16,98416,984Form 4
2026-01-27Mooallem JeffreyofficerAward / grant38,33038,330Form 4
2026-01-27Ohlberg HeatherofficerAward / grant6,6046,604Form 4
2026-01-27Ohlberg HeatherofficerAward / grant14,90614,906Form 4
2026-01-27Olson Jeffrey SdirectorAward / grant142,503142,503Form 4
2026-01-27Olson Jeffrey SdirectorAward / grant55,98855,988Form 4
2026-01-27Olson Jeffrey SdirectorAward / grant125,140125,140Form 4
2026-01-27Langer MarkdirectorAward / grant65,24065,240Form 4
2026-01-27Langer MarkdirectorAward / grant13,71013,710Form 4
2025-06-01Ohlberg HeatherofficerAward / grant20,66120,661Form 4
2025-05-12Milton Robert CofficerConversion1,3190Form 4
2025-05-12Milton Robert CofficerConversion9,8980Form 4
2025-05-12Milton Robert CofficerConversion13,1360Form 4
2025-05-12Milton Robert CofficerConversion1,6470Form 4
2025-05-12Milton Robert CofficerConversion26,00026,000Form 4
2025-05-07RICE CATHERINEdirectorAward / grant6,77630,457Form 4
2025-05-07Sesler Douglas WilliamdirectorAward / grant7,6927,692Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.