UDRUDR, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Residentialas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.40 · now $34.40 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UDR has typically landed between $30.84 and $37.49 — a range of −10.3% to +9.0% from the issuance price $34.40.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.40) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UDR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.4 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$30.84worst · -10.3%$37.49best · +9.0%
  • now $34.4 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.46 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $33.05–$35.87
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.84–$37.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−42.7%−42.7%+0.0%
2020-02-21−41.0%−41.0%+0.0%
2009-01-29−40.3%−40.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-07-09+46.6%−0.6%+46.6%
2009-03-20+44.4%+0.0%+46.6%
2009-07-10+43.1%+0.0%+47.5%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$12.9B
market cap
$1.46
EPS (TTM)
27.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-27
next earnings
Revenue$1.7B
'20'25
Net income$378M
'20'25
Free cash flow$614M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr22.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr11.5%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.88
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $34.40$33.04$49.10
  • DCF (intrinsic)$34.15
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$47.99
  • Analyst target · range $35.00–$46.00$41.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$34.40

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.3%
n=18
Feb
47%
−1.3%
n=19
Mar
74%
+2.2%
n=19
Apr
68%
+3.0%
n=19
May
53%
+0.4%
n=19
Jun
58%
+0.4%
n=19
Jul
68%
+3.4%
n=19
Aug
37%
+0.0%
n=19
Sep
42%
−1.2%
n=19
Oct
44%
−0.9%
n=18
Nov
61%
+1.5%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.8%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$41$332026-06-05: 1 insider sale, $3.1M — TOOMEY THOMAS W2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $3.1M↑ buys↓ salesdirector TOOMEY THOMAS W — Sale on 2026-06-05, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-06-05TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorSale80,000 @ $39.25$3.1M−9.0% of holding+0.3%not yet — horizon still open810,455Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-20TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorSale25,000 @ $42.75$1.1M−2.9% of holding+8.1%−13.2%824,716Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

76 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-23Bragg David D.officerWithheld for tax2,13427,892Form 4
2026-02-12BENSON KEITHofficerWithheld for tax2,8459,485Form 4
2026-02-12Bragg David D.officerWithheld for tax1,09930,026Form 4
2026-02-12Lacy Michael DofficerDisposition2,449391,428Form 4
2026-02-12Lacy Michael DofficerDisposition5,198386,230Form 4
2026-02-12Bragg David D.officerAward / grant6,74131,125Form 4
2026-02-12Lacy Michael DofficerDisposition49,091393,877Form 4
2026-02-12Bragg David D.officerDisposition790113,714Form 4
2026-02-12BENSON KEITHofficerAward / grant12,33012,330Form 4
2026-01-02Goitia Ellen M.directorAward / grant5,4515,451Form 4
2026-01-02MCNAMARA ROBERT AdirectorAward / grant5,45137,326Form 4
2026-01-02CATTANACH KATHERINE AdirectorAward / grant4,08898,699Form 4
2026-01-02King Mary AnndirectorAward / grant42,735110,015Form 4
2026-01-02GROVE JON AdirectorAward / grant52,707229,559Form 4
2026-01-02Hofmeister Tracy LofficerAward / grant21,80421,804Form 4
2026-01-02Clark RicharddirectorAward / grant8,17710,075Form 4
2026-01-02TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorAward / grant453,0101,183,411Form 4
2026-01-02TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorAward / grant92,7981,276,209Form 4
2026-01-02Morefield Diane MdirectorAward / grant5,45123,852Form 4
2026-01-02Patterson Mark RdirectorAward / grant5,45133,244Form 4
2026-01-02Hofmeister Tracy LofficerAward / grant21,03148,228Form 4
2026-01-02Lacy Michael DofficerAward / grant53,392399,663Form 4
2026-01-02Lacy Michael DofficerAward / grant43,305442,968Form 4
2026-01-02Nickelberry Kevin CdirectorAward / grant8,17733,937Form 4
2026-01-02Bragg David D.officerAward / grant87,365114,504Form 4
2026-01-02CATTANACH KATHERINE AdirectorAward / grant6,69328,436Form 4
2026-01-02Hofmeister Tracy LofficerAward / grant7,51455,742Form 4
2025-12-30TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorDisposition110,0000Form 4
2025-12-30TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorOption exercise110,000110,000Form 4
2025-12-30TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorOption exercise110,000730,401Form 4
2025-11-24TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorOther acquisition6,990840,401Form 4
2025-11-24TOOMEY THOMAS WdirectorGift52,175833,411Form 4
2025-10-10GROVE JON AdirectorGift120,000327,268Form 4
2025-10-03Clark RicharddirectorAward / grant1,8981,898Form 4
2025-09-02Fisher Joseph DofficerDisposition288,591263,697Form 4
2025-09-02Fisher Joseph DofficerDisposition974,158924,319Form 4
2025-07-24GROVE JON AdirectorAward / grant5,133176,852Form 4
2025-07-23Bragg David D.officerAward / grant24,38424,384Form 4
2025-07-23Bragg David D.officerAward / grant27,13927,139Form 4
2025-07-23Bragg David D.officerAward / grant24,38424,384Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-10$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-12-082025-11-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-11-062025-10-07$15–50K
Julie JohnsonHousesale2025-10-072025-09-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-10-032025-09-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-09-092025-08-04$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-25$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.