Issued 2026-08-20 at $5.51 · now $5.51 (2026-08-10, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-08-20 close, UCFI has typically landed between $3.63 and $6.26 — a range of −34.2% to +13.7% from the issuance price $5.51.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
545 overlapping 1 month windows · 2024-02-16 – 2026-07-10 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,375 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-08-20 issuance close ($5.51) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-09-18, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UCFI has typically landed a month from the 2026-08-20 close of $5.51 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.51 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.52 (+0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.5–$5.53
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.63–$6.26
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-09-03 | −51.1% | −51.1% | +0.0% |
| 2025-09-15 | −49.4% | −49.4% | +0.0% |
| 2025-09-02 | −47.6% | −47.6% | +7.2% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-07-07 | +87.4% | +0.0% | +105.4% |
| 2025-08-14 | +55.4% | +0.0% | +78.6% |
| 2025-08-15 | +50.1% | +0.0% | +78.6% |
545 overlapping windows · 2024-02-16 – 2026-08-10 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~3 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
6 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-30 | Bengochea Jose Antonio | other | Award / grant | 500,000 | 580,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Caragol William J | director | Award / grant | 500,000 | 580,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Bengochea Jose Antonio | other | Award / grant | 2,533,500 | 2,533,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Bengochea Jose Antonio | other | Award / grant | 1,932,000 | 1,932,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Caragol William J | director | Award / grant | 80,000 | 80,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-30 | Jiang Zhenjun | director | Award / grant | 47,689,349 | 47,689,349 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.