UCBUnited Community Banks, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.84 · now $34.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UCB has typically landed between $30.31 and $40.18 — a range of −13.0% to +15.3% from the issuance price $34.84.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UCB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$30.31worst · -13.0%$40.18best · +15.3%
  • now $34.84 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $34.85 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $32.81–$36.9
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $30.31–$40.18
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-15−68.1%−68.1%+0.0%
2009-01-14−67.0%−67.0%+0.0%
2009-01-05−66.9%−66.9%+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-11+104.2%+0.0%+104.2%
2011-03-14+99.4%+0.0%+99.4%
2009-03-16+99.3%+0.0%+99.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Feb
50%
−2.8%
n=20
Mar
60%
+4.4%
n=20
Apr
40%
+2.2%
n=20
May
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Jun
55%
−1.3%
n=20
Jul
60%
+1.8%
n=20
Aug
55%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.3%
n=20
Oct
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Nov
65%
+3.2%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.6%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$37$282026-08-10: 1 insider purchase, $74K — Carande Carl Steven2026-07-28: 1 insider sale, $885K — HARRALSON JEFFERSON L2026-07-27: 2 insider sales, $50K — BRADSHAW RICHARD …2026-04-27: 1 insider sale, $50K — BRADSHAW RICHARD2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $866K — HARTON H LYNN2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $50K — BRADSHAW RICHARD2026-01-23: 1 insider sale, $426K — KUMLER ALAN H2025-10-27: 1 insider sale, $50K — BRADSHAW RICHARD2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $50K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $426K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $916K2026-04: 1 open-market sale, $50K2026-07: 3 open-market sales, $935K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $74K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Carande Carl Steven — Purchase on 2026-08-10, filed same dayofficer HARRALSON JEFFERSON L — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed same dayofficer BRADSHAW RICHARD — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed same dayofficer BRADSHAW RICHARD — Sale on 2026-07-27, filed same dayofficer BRADSHAW RICHARD — Sale on 2026-04-27, filed 1 day after the tradedirector HARTON H LYNN — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer BRADSHAW RICHARD — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer KUMLER ALAN H — Sale on 2026-01-23, filed same dayofficer BRADSHAW RICHARD — Sale on 2025-10-27, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Carande Carl StevendirectorPurchase2,101 @ $35.35$74K+132.3% of holding+0.4%not yet — horizon still open3,689Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-28HARRALSON JEFFERSON LofficerSale25,000 @ $35.41$885K−40.0% of holding−4.7%not yet — horizon still open37,433Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-27BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale1,422 @ $35.09$50K−1.7% of holding−3.8%not yet — horizon still open83,230Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-27BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale2 @ $35.15$70−0.0% of holding−3.8%not yet — horizon still open83,228Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-27BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale1,510 @ $33.09$50K−1.8% of holding−6.1%not yet — horizon still open84,497Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-18HARTON H LYNNdirectorSale25,000 @ $34.64$866K−22.9% of holding−8.9%−7.6%84,123Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-02BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale1,460 @ $34.17$50K−2.0% of holding−5.5%−6.6%72,003Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-23KUMLER ALAN HofficerSale12,043 @ $35.36$426K−36.3% of holding−2.0%−2.3%21,096Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-27BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale1,654 @ $30.23$50K−2.2% of holding+5.4%+7.6%75,226Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale1,594 @ $30.94$49K−2.0% of holding+4.3%+0.3%78,417Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale20 @ $30.97$619−0.0% of holding+4.3%+0.3%78,397Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale2 @ $30.95$62−0.0% of holding+4.3%+0.3%78,395Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-05BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale35 @ $28.16$986−0.0% of holding−5.1%−17.2%79,890Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-02BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale1,750 @ $28.00$49K−2.1% of holding−4.2%−17.2%79,925Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-04-28DANIELS KENNETH LdirectorPurchase500 @ $27.23$14K+25.0% of holding−2.5%−14.3%2,500Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-11Davis Sally PopedirectorPurchase1,800 @ $28.19$51K+123.0% of holding−7.2%−0.1%3,264Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-19HARTON H LYNNdirectorSale3,321 @ $33.29$111K−3.0% of holding−6.9%−9.1%109,123Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-10HARTON H LYNNdirectorSale30,721 @ $33.84$1.0M−21.3% of holding−8.4%−14.1%113,402Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-10HARTON H LYNNdirectorSale958 @ $34.13$33K−0.8% of holding−8.4%−14.1%112,444Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-27BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale1,524 @ $32.72$50K−2.2% of holding−5.8%−11.9%67,879Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-27BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerSale3 @ $32.79$98−0.0% of holding−5.8%−11.9%67,876Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

139 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Speir Thomas HardawayofficerAward / grant12,75212,752Form 4
2026-09-01KUMLER ALAN HofficerAward / grant2,93223,612Form 4
2026-08-15KUMLER ALAN HofficerWithheld for tax51420,680Form 4
2026-08-01Carande Carl StevendirectorAward / grant1,5881,588Form 4
2026-07-29EDWARDS ROBERT A.officerGift1,50057,877Form 4
2026-07-24JAMES JOHN MARCdirectorGift2,5265,972Form 4
2026-07-24RICHLOVSKY THOMAS AdirectorGift2,52638,055Form 4
2026-07-24Bazante Jennifer M.directorGift2,5264,836Form 4
2026-07-24Bazante Jennifer M.directorGift2,5268,546Form 4
2026-07-24DANIELS KENNETH LdirectorGift2,5262,330Form 4
2026-07-24DANIELS KENNETH LdirectorGift2,52623,094Form 4
2026-07-24RICHLOVSKY THOMAS AdirectorGift2,5262,330Form 4
2026-07-24JAMES JOHN MARCdirectorGift2,5262,330Form 4
2026-05-15KUMLER ALAN HofficerWithheld for tax11321,094Form 4
2026-05-13BELL GEORGE B.directorAward / grant2,33011,393Form 4
2026-05-13CLEMENTS JAMES PdirectorAward / grant2,33015,600Form 4
2026-05-13Bazante Jennifer M.directorAward / grant2,3307,345Form 4
2026-05-13JAMES JOHN MARCdirectorAward / grant2,3304,856Form 4
2026-05-13WILKINS DAVID HdirectorAward / grant2,33021,476Form 4
2026-05-13RICHLOVSKY THOMAS AdirectorAward / grant2,3304,856Form 4
2026-05-13WALLIS TIMdirectorAward / grant2,33030,385Form 4
2026-05-13Davis Sally PopedirectorAward / grant2,3308,120Form 4
2026-05-13Drummond Lance F.directorAward / grant2,33018,849Form 4
2026-05-13DANIELS KENNETH LdirectorAward / grant2,3304,856Form 4
2026-05-13Mann JenniferdirectorAward / grant2,33018,849Form 4
2026-02-15HARTON H LYNNdirectorWithheld for tax11,622262,460Form 4
2026-02-15HARTON H LYNNdirectorWithheld for tax9,755252,705Form 4
2026-02-15BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerWithheld for tax2,35987,211Form 4
2026-02-15HARRALSON JEFFERSON LofficerWithheld for tax2,11564,016Form 4
2026-02-15HARRALSON JEFFERSON LofficerWithheld for tax1,58362,433Form 4
2026-02-15DAVIS LUX MELINDAofficerWithheld for tax1,52244,867Form 4
2026-02-15EDWARDS ROBERT A.officerWithheld for tax1,39260,383Form 4
2026-02-15BRADSHAW RICHARDofficerWithheld for tax1,37485,837Form 4
2026-02-15DAVIS LUX MELINDAofficerWithheld for tax1,23043,637Form 4
2026-02-15EDWARDS ROBERT A.officerWithheld for tax1,00659,377Form 4
2026-02-15Terry Mark AaronofficerWithheld for tax63326,723Form 4
2026-02-15Berry Holly NofficerWithheld for tax58810,552Form 4
2026-02-15Terry Mark AaronofficerWithheld for tax52326,200Form 4
2026-02-15Berry Holly NofficerWithheld for tax45811,140Form 4
2026-02-15COX ABRAHAMofficerWithheld for tax36918,170Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.