UBSI · TickerCove

UBSIUnited Bankshares, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $47.32 · now $47.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UBSI has typically landed between $42.45 and $53.75 — a range of −10.3% to +13.6% from the issuance price $47.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($47.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$47.32 · 87% of range

$33.36 low$49.37 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.4%

typical move · IQR 10.0%

−10.3%worst (p90)+13.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where UBSI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $47.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $47.32 (+0.0%)
typical $47.5 (+0.4%)
middle 50% $45.13–$49.88
90% range $42.45–$53.75

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-20	−38.6%	−38.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-11	−37.5%	−37.5%	+0.3%
2008-12-31	−36.9%	−37.8%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08	+55.7%	+0.0%	+56.8%
2009-03-30	+54.3%	+0.0%	+54.3%
2009-03-31	+50.5%	+0.0%	+50.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

35%

−0.9%

n=20

Feb

45%

−1.4%

n=20

Mar

55%

−0.2%

n=20

Apr

40%

+3.4%

n=20

May

45%

−1.3%

n=20

Jun

60%

−1.1%

n=20

Jul

60%

+1.6%

n=20

Aug

40%

−0.3%

n=20

Sep

50%

+0.9%

n=20

Oct

65%

+2.9%

n=20

Nov

80%

+5.5%

n=20

Dec

60%

+1.4%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	NESSELROAD MARK R	director	Sale	3,200 @ $46.42	$149K	−9.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	32,224	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	609 @ $47.18	$29K	+1.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	59,287	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-04	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	51 @ $48.77	$2K	+0.1% of holding	−3.4%	not yet — horizon still open	58,678	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-30	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	158 @ $48.56	$8K	+0.3% of holding	−5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	58,627	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-01	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	470 @ $46.37	$22K	+0.8% of holding	+3.0%	not yet — horizon still open	58,469	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-01	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	7 @ $42.31	$296	+0.0% of holding	+12.5%	not yet — horizon still open	57,999	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-15	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	744 @ $42.06	$31K	+1.3% of holding	+7.3%	not yet — horizon still open	57,992	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-04-01	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	512 @ $42.03	$22K	+0.9% of holding	−5.2%	not yet — horizon still open	57,248	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-04	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	62 @ $41.70	$3K	+0.1% of holding	+6.2%	+4.1%	56,736	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-25	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	710 @ $42.54	$30K	+1.3% of holding	+3.0%	+1.1%	56,674	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-28	Rice Lacy I III	director	Purchase	101 @ $41.59	$4K	ownership Δ n/a	+0.3%	+10.8%	101	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-02	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	548 @ $38.34	$21K	+1.0% of holding	+13.6%	+12.4%	55,964	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	882 @ $37.18	$33K	+1.6% of holding	+4.0%	+5.4%	55,416	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-07	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	138 @ $36.17	$5K	+0.3% of holding	+2.5%	+8.0%	54,534	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-08	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	536 @ $37.09	$20K	+1.0% of holding	−2.4%	+18.5%	54,396	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-26	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	662 @ $38.23	$25K	+1.2% of holding	−4.4%	+8.0%	53,860	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-06	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	278 @ $35.77	$10K	+0.5% of holding	+5.1%	+20.3%	53,198	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-01	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	511 @ $37.97	$19K	+1.0% of holding	−7.8%	−6.9%	52,920	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-16	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	679 @ $37.20	$25K	+1.3% of holding	−6.6%	−13.9%	52,409	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-05	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	74 @ $35.52	$3K	+0.1% of holding	−4.5%	−17.9%	51,730	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-04-01	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	548 @ $34.47	$19K	+1.1% of holding	+0.6%	−10.6%	51,656	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-24	DuMond Sara	director	Purchase	2,600 @ $35.01	$91K	+105.9% of holding	+4.4%	−8.8%	5,054	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-26	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	784 @ $35.27	$28K	+1.6% of holding	+3.9%	+2.2%	51,108	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-02-21	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	68 @ $36.73	$2K	+0.1% of holding	+4.5%	+3.1%	50,324	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-03	WINTER P CLINTON	director	Purchase	498 @ $37.09	$18K	+1.0% of holding	+1.8%	−1.7%	50,256	Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-18	NESSELROAD MARK R	director	Sale	6,000 @ $39.16	$235K	−14.5% of holding	−2.3%	−5.9%	35,424	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

201 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-02-23	ADAMS RICHARD M JR	director	Withheld for tax	7,749	186,344	Form 4
2026-02-23	ADAMS RICHARD M SR	director	Withheld for tax	7,260	883,715	Form 4
2026-02-23	CONSAGRA JAMES J JR	officer	Withheld for tax	6,340	148,186	Form 4
2026-02-23	Tatterson William Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	4,198	99,597	Form 4
2026-02-23	ADAMS RICHARD M JR	director	Withheld for tax	2,454	194,093	Form 4
2026-02-23	ADAMS RICHARD M SR	director	Withheld for tax	2,299	890,975	Form 4
2026-02-23	Williams Darren K	officer	Withheld for tax	2,050	45,654	Form 4
2026-02-23	CONSAGRA JAMES J JR	officer	Withheld for tax	2,008	154,526	Form 4
2026-02-23	Ernest Douglas Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	1,835	51,637	Form 4
2026-02-23	Draber Ross M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,800	28,872	Form 4
2026-02-23	Tatterson William Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	1,329	103,795	Form 4
2026-02-23	Humphrey Matthew L	officer	Withheld for tax	1,018	37,685	Form 4
2026-02-23	Gurtis Julie R	officer	Withheld for tax	898	28,703	Form 4
2026-02-23	Williams Darren K	officer	Withheld for tax	612	47,704	Form 4
2026-02-23	Ernest Douglas Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	540	53,472	Form 4
2026-02-23	Draber Ross M	officer	Withheld for tax	532	30,672	Form 4
2026-02-23	KAYES HENRY M JR	officer	Withheld for tax	413	37,580	Form 4
2026-02-23	Shaver Ami L	officer	Withheld for tax	310	15,285	Form 4
2026-02-23	Mildren Charles J.	officer	Withheld for tax	280	20,867	Form 4
2026-02-23	Proctor Michael	officer	Withheld for tax	249	11,340	Form 4
2026-02-23	Schultheis Anna J	officer	Withheld for tax	218	11,650	Form 4
2026-02-23	Draber Ross M	officer	Award / grant	3,700	31,204	Form 4
2026-02-23	ADAMS RICHARD M SR	director	Award / grant	16,008	893,274	Form 4
2026-02-23	CONSAGRA JAMES J JR	officer	Award / grant	13,978	156,534	Form 4
2026-02-23	ADAMS RICHARD M JR	director	Award / grant	17,087	196,547	Form 4
2026-02-23	Ernest Douglas Bryan	officer	Award / grant	3,752	54,012	Form 4
2026-02-23	Williams Darren K	officer	Award / grant	4,252	48,316	Form 4
2026-02-23	Tatterson William Mark	officer	Award / grant	9,250	105,124	Form 4
2026-02-22	ADAMS RICHARD M JR	director	Withheld for tax	4,399	179,460	Form 4
2026-02-22	ADAMS RICHARD M SR	director	Withheld for tax	3,919	877,266	Form 4
2026-02-22	CONSAGRA JAMES J JR	officer	Withheld for tax	2,851	142,556	Form 4
2026-02-22	Tatterson William Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	1,887	95,874	Form 4
2026-02-22	Humphrey Matthew L	officer	Withheld for tax	1,137	38,703	Form 4
2026-02-22	Gurtis Julie R	officer	Withheld for tax	996	29,601	Form 4
2026-02-22	Williams Darren K	officer	Withheld for tax	841	44,064	Form 4
2026-02-22	Ernest Douglas Bryan	officer	Withheld for tax	748	50,260	Form 4
2026-02-22	Draber Ross M	officer	Withheld for tax	748	27,504	Form 4
2026-02-22	KAYES HENRY M JR	officer	Withheld for tax	737	37,993	Form 4
2026-02-22	Shaver Ami L	officer	Withheld for tax	369	15,595	Form 4
2026-02-22	Schultheis Anna J	officer	Withheld for tax	354	11,868	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i