UBERUber Technologies, Inc.Technology · Software - Applicationas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $70.97 · now $70.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UBER has typically landed between $59.71 and $86.30 — a range of −15.9% to +21.6% from the issuance price $70.97.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,827 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($70.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UBER has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $70.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$59.71worst · -15.9%$86.3best · +21.6%
  • now $70.97 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $71.22 (+0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $65.89–$76.55
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $59.71–$86.3
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,827 windows spanning 2019-05-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−63.1%−63.1%+2.2%
2020-02-14−52.3%−52.3%+3.5%
2020-02-19−50.1%−63.9%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+88.9%+0.0%+89.7%
2022-07-14+57.2%+0.0%+58.8%
2020-11-02+52.5%+0.0%+52.5%

1,827 overlapping windows · 2019-05-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$134.2B
market cap
$4.01
EPS (TTM)
16.4
P/E (TTM)
2026-08-05
next earnings
Revenue$52.0B
'20'25
Net income$10.1B
'20'25
Free cash flow$9.8B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr19.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr37.2%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.45
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $70.97$65.35$146.90
  • DCF (intrinsic)$141.27
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$137.16
  • Analyst target · range $72.00–$125.00$105.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$70.97

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
57%
+7.3%
n=7
Feb
57%
+4.1%
n=7
Mar
14%
−4.3%
n=7
Apr
57%
−0.6%
n=7
May
43%
+0.6%
n=7
Jun
63%
+3.4%
n=8
Jul
25%
−2.0%
n=8
Aug
63%
+3.1%
n=8
Sep
50%
+0.9%
n=8
Oct
29%
−2.6%
n=7
Nov
43%
+8.6%
n=7
Dec
57%
−2.2%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$100$662026-09-11: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Hazelbaker Jill2026-09-10: 1 insider purchase, $10.0M — KHOSROWSHAHI DARA2026-09-04: 2 insider purchases, $5.3M — Macdonald Andrew …2025-08: 3 open-market sales, $4.4M2025-09: 9 open-market sales, $54.3M2025-10: 1 open-market purchase, $4652025-10: 1 open-market sale, $291K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $807K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $251K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $261K2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $1.6M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $2.2M2026-09: 3 open-market purchases, $15.3M2026-09: 1 open-market sale, $2.0M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Hazelbaker Jill — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KHOSROWSHAHI DARA — Purchase on 2026-09-10, filed same dayofficer Macdonald Andrew — Purchase on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Macdonald Andrew — Purchase on 2026-09-04, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Hazelbaker JillofficerSale28,170 @ $71.31$2.0M−15.9% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open149,525Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-10KHOSROWSHAHI DARAdirectorPurchase141,000 @ $70.96$10.0M+11.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1,367,100Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-04Macdonald AndrewofficerPurchase54,325 @ $75.65$4.1M+15.2% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open410,645Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-09-04Macdonald AndrewofficerPurchase15,675 @ $76.44$1.2M+3.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open426,320Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

296 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-16Macdonald AndrewofficerWithheld for tax2,259356,320Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerWithheld for tax1,485267,761Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorWithheld for tax1,444254,872Form 4
2026-08-16Macdonald AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,409358,579Form 4
2026-08-16Macdonald AndrewofficerWithheld for tax1,382359,988Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerWithheld for tax1,312177,695Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerWithheld for tax946180,489Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerWithheld for tax752266,320Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorWithheld for tax749257,693Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerWithheld for tax748179,007Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorWithheld for tax741256,316Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerWithheld for tax734179,755Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerWithheld for tax710181,435Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorWithheld for tax636257,057Form 4
2026-08-16Macdonald AndrewofficerWithheld for tax634361,370Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerWithheld for tax60941,737Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerWithheld for tax43942,932Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerWithheld for tax352269,246Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerWithheld for tax348267,072Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerWithheld for tax341267,420Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerWithheld for tax34142,591Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerWithheld for tax33241,405Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerWithheld for tax28143,371Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerWithheld for tax24542,346Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerWithheld for tax176182,145Form 4
2026-08-16Macdonald AndrewofficerOption exercise2,52047,876Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerOption exercise1,41660,891Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorOption exercise1,28239,740Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerOption exercise70830,445Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerOption exercise4909,310Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorOption exercise1,51064,951Form 4
2026-08-16Hazelbaker JillofficerOption exercise1,88881,188Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerOption exercise88538,057Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorOption exercise1,49328,371Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerOption exercise1,15815,053Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerOption exercise56665,139Form 4
2026-08-16West TonydirectorOption exercise2,91120,372Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerOption exercise70013,299Form 4
2026-08-16Ceremony GlenofficerOption exercise1,51510,611Form 4
2026-08-16Krishnamurthy Balaji (A)officerOption exercise68721,290Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-30$1–15K
Dan NewhouseHousepurchase2026-07-172026-07-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-22$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-16$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-15$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-02$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-07-062026-06-30$1–15K
Nancy PelosiHousepurchase2026-06-232026-05-29$500K–1M
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2026-06-102026-05-11$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.