Issued 2026-09-16 at $132.78 · now $132.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UAN has typically landed between $114.25 and $164.63 — a range of −14.0% to +24.0% from the issuance price $132.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
3,861 overlapping 1 month windows · 2011-04-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($132.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UAN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $132.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $132.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $135.04 (+1.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $126.31–$143.76
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $114.25–$164.63
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −77.7% | −77.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −72.5% | −72.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −70.5% | −70.5% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-11-11 | +113.7% | −2.6% | +113.7% |
| 2020-11-12 | +108.4% | +0.0% | +119.5% |
| 2020-11-10 | +108.2% | −2.3% | +108.2% |
3,861 overlapping windows · 2011-04-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~16 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-22 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 5,021 @ $74.87 | $376K | +1.9% of holding | +3.0% | +2.8% | 272,274 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 5,308 @ $73.87 | $392K | +2.0% of holding | +0.1% | +0.8% | 267,253 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-17 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 5,168 @ $74.55 | $385K | +2.0% of holding | +2.3% | +3.0% | 261,945 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-16 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 5,168 @ $74.11 | $383K | +2.1% of holding | +2.4% | +6.3% | 256,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 5,168 @ $73.24 | $379K | +2.1% of holding | +4.3% | +8.0% | 251,609 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-14 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 4,265 @ $72.05 | $307K | +1.8% of holding | +6.0% | +10.9% | 246,441 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-11 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 4,343 @ $70.41 | $306K | +1.8% of holding | +7.3% | +12.5% | 242,176 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 6,071 @ $68.64 | $417K | +2.6% of holding | +12.9% | +20.9% | 237,833 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-09 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 6,071 @ $68.30 | $415K | +2.7% of holding | +16.3% | +22.9% | 231,762 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-08 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 6,071 @ $68.12 | $414K | +2.8% of holding | +10.0% | +13.1% | 225,691 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-07 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 6,071 @ $66.65 | $405K | +2.8% of holding | +15.2% | +21.3% | 219,620 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-04-04 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 5,863 @ $70.52 | $413K | +2.8% of holding | +6.6% | +12.0% | 213,549 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-03 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 500 @ $74.98 | $37K | +0.2% of holding | +1.3% | +6.9% | 207,686 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 31 @ $74.69 | $2K | +0.0% of holding | +4.9% | +7.4% | 207,186 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-31 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,819 @ $74.79 | $211K | +1.4% of holding | +7.0% | +8.6% | 207,155 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-28 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,640 @ $74.96 | $198K | +1.3% of holding | +6.4% | +9.5% | 204,336 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-26 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 180 @ $75.00 | $14K | +0.1% of holding | +7.2% | +12.4% | 201,696 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-25 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 1,058 @ $75.00 | $79K | +0.5% of holding | +7.2% | +14.9% | 201,516 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 3,284 @ $74.80 | $246K | +1.7% of holding | −1.4% | +5.3% | 200,458 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-12 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 4,124 @ $74.56 | $307K | +2.1% of holding | −3.4% | +5.5% | 197,174 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-11 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 3,937 @ $74.57 | $294K | +2.1% of holding | −6.0% | +4.2% | 193,050 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-10 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,079 @ $74.93 | $156K | +1.1% of holding | +0.3% | +6.3% | 189,113 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-06 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,818 @ $74.96 | $211K | +1.5% of holding | +4.2% | +11.8% | 187,034 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-05 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,532 @ $73.77 | $187K | +1.4% of holding | +7.8% | +14.0% | 184,216 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-03-04 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 3,746 @ $72.16 | $270K | +2.1% of holding | +8.0% | +18.4% | 181,684 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-03 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 3,746 @ $74.97 | $281K | +2.2% of holding | +5.3% | +17.9% | 177,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-30 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,840 @ $74.74 | $212K | +1.7% of holding | +6.1% | +17.4% | 174,192 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-27 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 1,698 @ $74.88 | $127K | +1.0% of holding | +7.8% | +19.2% | 171,352 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-26 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 921 @ $74.92 | $69K | +0.5% of holding | +9.6% | +21.5% | 169,654 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-24 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 40 @ $74.90 | $3K | +0.0% of holding | +7.7% | +19.7% | 168,733 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-23 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 6,236 @ $74.36 | $464K | +3.8% of holding | +7.0% | +19.5% | 168,693 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-20 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 6,202 @ $74.22 | $460K | +4.0% of holding | +8.1% | +22.5% | 162,457 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-19 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 3,100 @ $73.99 | $229K | +2.0% of holding | +8.1% | +25.4% | 156,255 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-18 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,287 @ $74.55 | $170K | +1.5% of holding | +6.3% | +23.4% | 153,155 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-17 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 3,655 @ $74.82 | $273K | +2.5% of holding | +10.3% | +26.7% | 150,868 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2024-12-16 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,518 @ $74.97 | $189K | +1.7% of holding | +13.0% | +26.7% | 147,213 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | ICAHN CARL C | director | Purchase | 2,851 @ $74.84 | $213K | +2.0% of holding | +12.8% | +25.3% | 144,695 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
20 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Disposition | 3,689 | 30,593 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Disposition | 3,421 | 30,593 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Disposition | 2,000 | 30,593 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 3,689 | 3,688 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 3,421 | 6,840 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Award / grant | 8,482 | 8,482 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 32,593 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 3,689 | 34,282 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-10 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 3,421 | 34,014 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Disposition | 3,689 | 30,593 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Disposition | 2,924 | 30,593 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Disposition | 2,000 | 30,593 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 2,000 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 2,000 | 32,593 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 3,689 | 34,282 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 2,924 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 2,924 | 33,517 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Option exercise | 3,689 | 7,377 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-11 | PYTOSH MARK A | director | Award / grant | 10,261 | 10,261 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.