UAMY · TickerCove

UAMYUnited States Antimony CorporationBasic Materials · Industrial Materialsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.56 · now $4.56 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UAMY has typically landed between $3.04 and $8.28 — a range of −33.4% to +81.6% from the issuance price $4.56.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.56) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$4.56 · 1% of range

$4.49 low$17.47 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.6%

typical move · IQR 50.3%

−33.4%worst (p90)+81.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where UAMY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.56 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $4.56 (+0.0%)
typical $4.63 (+1.6%)
middle 50% $3.49–$5.78
90% range $3.04–$8.28

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-10-14	−56.4%	−63.6%	+0.0%
2025-10-22	−55.1%	−55.1%	+0.0%
2025-10-13	−51.7%	−61.9%	+4.5%
3 best
2024-11-15	+311.1%	+0.0%	+311.1%
2024-11-14	+301.8%	−0.4%	+301.8%
2011-03-22	+286.4%	+0.0%	+286.4%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

55%

+7.3%

n=20

Feb

45%

+9.3%

n=20

Mar

40%

+3.1%

n=20

Apr

55%

+19.7%

n=20

May

35%

−0.2%

n=20

Jun

35%

+3.5%

n=20

Jul

45%

+2.3%

n=20

Aug

35%

+6.4%

n=20

Sep

40%

−0.4%

n=20

Oct

45%

+0.7%

n=20

Nov

35%

−7.1%

n=20

Dec

35%

+5.9%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Carrabba Joseph A	director	Purchase	21,300 @ $4.72	$101K	+12.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	198,401	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-01	Bardswich Lloyd	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $4.63	$93K	+2.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	932,881	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-31	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Purchase	1,400 @ $5.04	$7K	+0.2% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	878,092	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-28	EVANS GARY C	director	Purchase	20,000 @ $4.92	$98K	+0.8% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	2,590,028	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-15	Marinelli Jon R	director	Purchase	12,500 @ $7.45	$93K	ownership Δ n/a	−28.5%	not yet — horizon still open	12,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-26	EVANS GARY C	director	Purchase	100,000 @ $6.13	$613K	+4.4% of holding	+49.6%	+29.9%	2,378,818	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-10	EVANS GARY C	director	Purchase	200,000 @ $1.45	$289K	+15.1% of holding	+10.4%	+111.1%	1,528,818	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10	MCMANUS MICHAEL A JR	director	Purchase	70,000 @ $1.46	$102K	+26.1% of holding	+10.4%	+111.1%	338,333	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

99 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-02	ISAAK RICHARD R	officer	Disposition	100,000	344,376	Form 4
2026-04-02	Bardswich Lloyd	director	Disposition	59,872	877,483	Form 4
2026-03-31	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	9,600	848,754	Form 4
2026-03-31	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	8,400	858,354	Form 4
2026-03-31	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	5,000	867,754	Form 4
2026-03-31	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	3,000	845,754	Form 4
2026-03-31	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	1,000	866,754	Form 4
2026-03-27	Bardswich Lloyd	director	Disposition	36,181	937,355	Form 4
2026-03-27	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	6,339	878,127	Form 4
2026-03-27	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	5,373	872,754	Form 4
2026-03-26	ISAAK RICHARD R	officer	Disposition	53,334	354,886	Form 4
2026-03-26	Bardswich Lloyd	director	Disposition	46,674	973,536	Form 4
2026-03-25	EVANS GARY C	director	Disposition	100,000	2,431,951	Form 4
2026-03-25	EVANS GARY C	director	Disposition	100,000	2,531,951	Form 4
2026-03-25	EVANS GARY C	director	Disposition	100,000	2,231,951	Form 4
2026-03-25	EVANS GARY C	director	Disposition	100,000	2,331,951	Form 4
2026-03-25	ISAAK RICHARD R	officer	Disposition	30,000	408,220	Form 4
2026-03-25	Fink Jeffrey Russell	officer	Disposition	10,000	112,711	Form 4
2026-03-25	Fink Jeffrey Russell	officer	Disposition	10,000	122,711	Form 4
2026-03-25	Fink Jeffrey Russell	officer	Disposition	4,055	108,656	Form 4
2026-03-24	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Disposition	20,000	884,466	Form 4
2026-03-23	Pagen Melissa	officer	Disposition	89,004	44,825	Form 4
2026-03-23	Fink Jeffrey Russell	officer	Disposition	5,000	132,711	Form 4
2026-03-23	Fink Jeffrey Russell	officer	Disposition	5,000	137,711	Form 4
2026-01-15	MCMANUS MICHAEL A JR	director	Award / grant	6,635	538,600	Form 4
2026-01-15	Carrabba Joseph A	director	Award / grant	6,635	112,702	Form 4
2026-01-15	Aguirre Blaise A.	director	Award / grant	6,635	496,001	Form 4
2026-01-15	Marinelli Jon R	director	Award / grant	1,022	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Pagen Melissa	officer	Award / grant	40,603	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Pagen Melissa	officer	Award / grant	61,627	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Pagen Melissa	officer	Award / grant	40,603	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Pagen Melissa	officer	Award / grant	61,627	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Gustavsen John C.	officer	Award / grant	62	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Gustavsen John C.	officer	Award / grant	50,754	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Gustavsen John C.	officer	Award / grant	50,754	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Gustavsen John C.	officer	Award / grant	62	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	EVANS GARY C	director	Award / grant	304,524	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	EVANS GARY C	director	Award / grant	308,133	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	Carrabba Joseph A	director	Award / grant	12,259	0	Form 4
2026-01-15	MCMANUS MICHAEL A JR	director	Award / grant	12,259	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i