UALUnited Airlines Holdings, Inc.Industrials · Airlines, Airports & Air Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $106.30 · now $106.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UAL has typically landed between $85.80 and $132.27 — a range of −19.3% to +24.4% from the issuance price $106.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($106.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UAL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $106.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$85.8worst · -19.3%$132.27best · +24.4%
  • now $106.3 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $107.8 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $98.33–$117.26
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.8–$132.27
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−73.4%−73.4%+0.0%
2020-02-19−73.2%−73.2%+0.6%
2020-02-20−69.3%−73.4%+0.0%
3 best
2008-07-14+287.8%−8.7%+287.8%
2008-07-15+285.3%+0.0%+324.9%
2008-07-11+238.0%−13.8%+238.0%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$38.4B
market cap
$10.69
EPS (TTM)
11.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-10-21
next earnings
Revenue$59.1B
'20'25
Net income$3.4B
'20'25
Free cash flow$2.6B
'20'25
Net margin · by yr5.7%
'20'25
ROE · by yr21.9%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr2.03
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $106.30$88.59$345.39
  • DCF (intrinsic)$247.76
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$327.68
  • Analyst target · range $130.00–$190.00$162.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$106.30

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+1.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Mar
47%
−4.9%
n=19
Apr
37%
−2.2%
n=19
May
58%
+1.0%
n=19
Jun
37%
−4.2%
n=19
Jul
58%
+4.9%
n=19
Aug
47%
+3.4%
n=19
Sep
53%
+2.8%
n=19
Oct
50%
+7.8%
n=18
Nov
72%
+7.3%
n=18
Dec
61%
+4.0%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$136$852026-08-25: 1 insider sale, $585K — Nocella Andrew P2026-08-04: 1 insider sale, $397K — Nocella Andrew P2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $1.3M — Leskinen Michael D.2026-07-28: 2 insider sales, $4.1M — Hart Brett J, Nocella Andrew P2026-07-24: 1 insider sale, $2.4M — Enqvist Torbjorn J2026-07-21: 1 insider sale, $18.8M — KIRBY J SCOTT2026-06-16: 1 insider sale, $130K — KIRBY J SCOTT2026-06-15: 1 insider sale, $5.9M — KIRBY J SCOTT2026-05-26: 2 insider sales, $4.2M — Gebo Kate …2026-05-01: 1 insider sale, $631K — Nocella Andrew P2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $2.0M — Hart Brett J2025-12-03: 1 insider sale, $12.9M — KIRBY J SCOTT2025-08-12: 3 insider sales, $4.4M — Gebo Kate, Harford Barney …2025-08: 4 open-market sales, $5.8M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $12.9M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $2.0M2026-05: 3 open-market sales, $4.8M2026-06: 2 open-market sales, $6.0M2026-07: 4 open-market sales, $25.3M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $2.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Nocella Andrew P — Sale on 2026-08-25, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nocella Andrew P — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Leskinen Michael D. — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Hart Brett J — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed same dayofficer Nocella Andrew P — Sale on 2026-07-28, filed same dayofficer Enqvist Torbjorn J — Sale on 2026-07-24, filed 4 days after the tradedirector KIRBY J SCOTT — Sale on 2026-07-21, filed same daydirector KIRBY J SCOTT — Sale on 2026-06-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KIRBY J SCOTT — Sale on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gebo Kate — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Gebo Kate — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Nocella Andrew P — Sale on 2026-05-01, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Hart Brett J — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector KIRBY J SCOTT — Sale on 2025-12-03, filed same dayofficer Gebo Kate — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Harford Barney — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed same dayofficer Gebo Kate — Sale on 2025-08-12, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Nocella Andrew PofficerSale5,000 @ $117.00$585K−2.3% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open214,955Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04Nocella Andrew PofficerSale3,000 @ $132.30$397K−1.3% of holding−17.5%not yet — horizon still open219,955Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Leskinen Michael D.officerSale10,000 @ $128.19$1.3M−17.4% of holding−19.0%not yet — horizon still open47,436Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-28Hart Brett JdirectorSale30,108 @ $120.72$3.6M−7.5% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open371,583Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-28Nocella Andrew PofficerSale4,200 @ $120.48$506K−1.8% of holding−10.6%not yet — horizon still open222,955Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-24Enqvist Torbjorn JofficerSale20,000 @ $119.91$2.4M−14.8% of holding−7.3%not yet — horizon still open114,800Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-21KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorSale159,321 @ $118.05$18.8M−16.6% of holding−4.4%not yet — horizon still open797,851Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-16KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorSale1,078 @ $120.74$130K−0.1% of holding−1.9%not yet — horizon still open797,851Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorSale48,303 @ $121.30$5.9M−5.7% of holding−0.7%not yet — horizon still open798,929Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Gebo KateofficerSale34,669 @ $105.41$3.7M−33.9% of holding+29.0%not yet — horizon still open67,707Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Gebo KateofficerSale5,331 @ $105.51$562K−8.1% of holding+29.0%not yet — horizon still open60,393Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-01Nocella Andrew PofficerSale7,000 @ $90.19$631K−3.1% of holding+12.2%not yet — horizon still open215,345Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-02Hart Brett JdirectorSale19,000 @ $106.45$2.0M−6.7% of holding−4.9%+12.0%264,638Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorSale120,000 @ $107.86$12.9M−15.3% of holding+5.1%−11.0%666,535Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12Gebo KateofficerSale29,953 @ $97.59$2.9M−39.7% of holding+8.7%+7.4%45,496Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12Harford BarneydirectorSale9,000 @ $97.76$880K−10.1% of holding+8.7%+7.4%80,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12Gebo KateofficerSale6,343 @ $97.81$620K−8.4% of holding+8.7%+7.4%69,106Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08Harford BarneydirectorSale15,823 @ $90.03$1.4M−15.1% of holding+16.3%+20.6%89,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-28Leskinen Michael D.officerSale23,000 @ $91.43$2.1M−57.5% of holding+11.4%+2.7%17,001Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-28Freyre MichelledirectorSale900 @ $92.13$83K−52.1% of holding+11.4%+2.7%829Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25Hart Brett JdirectorSale24,772 @ $89.50$2.2M−8.0% of holding+11.5%+8.9%283,638Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-07-18Enqvist Torbjorn JofficerSale20,000 @ $92.22$1.8M−24.3% of holding+8.5%+12.2%62,358Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

278 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19SHAPIRO EDWARDdirectorGift50,000150,000Form 4
2026-07-28Hart Brett JdirectorGift7,461364,122Form 4
2026-07-28Gebo KateofficerGift4,96869,018Form 4
2026-07-27Hart Brett JdirectorWithheld for tax17,245401,691Form 4
2026-07-27Hart Brett JdirectorOption exercise21,521418,936Form 4
2026-07-27Hart Brett JdirectorOption exercise21,5210Form 4
2026-07-25KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorWithheld for tax28,076841,122Form 4
2026-07-25Hart Brett JdirectorWithheld for tax20,543397,415Form 4
2026-07-25Enqvist Torbjorn JofficerWithheld for tax9,825129,946Form 4
2026-07-25Nocella Andrew PofficerWithheld for tax9,594227,155Form 4
2026-07-25Gebo KateofficerWithheld for tax7,90173,986Form 4
2026-07-25Leskinen Michael D.officerWithheld for tax7,90157,436Form 4
2026-07-25Hart Brett JdirectorAward / grant46,375417,958Form 4
2026-07-25Gebo KateofficerAward / grant17,83781,887Form 4
2026-07-25KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorAward / grant71,347869,198Form 4
2026-07-25Leskinen Michael D.officerAward / grant17,83765,337Form 4
2026-07-25Nocella Andrew PofficerAward / grant21,404236,749Form 4
2026-07-25Enqvist Torbjorn JofficerAward / grant24,971139,771Form 4
2026-07-21KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorOption exercise159,321957,172Form 4
2026-07-21KIRBY J SCOTTdirectorOption exercise159,3210Form 4
2026-06-30ISAACSON WALTERdirectorAward / grant29222,569Form 4
2026-06-30BREWER ROSALIND GdirectorAward / grant128323Form 4
2026-06-30Friend MatthewdirectorAward / grant28311,369Form 4
2026-06-30SHAPIRO EDWARDdirectorAward / grant29221,746Form 4
2026-06-30Ward LayshadirectorAward / grant28310,715Form 4
2026-05-27Gebo KateofficerGift3,65764,050Form 4
2026-05-22Whitehurst James MdirectorDisposition1,20518,892Form 4
2026-05-22Whitehurst James MdirectorOption exercise2,41020,097Form 4
2026-05-22Whitehurst James MdirectorOption exercise2,41020,097Form 4
2026-05-22Whitehurst James MdirectorOption exercise2,4100Form 4
2026-05-22Whitehurst James MdirectorOption exercise2,4100Form 4
2026-05-20Harford BarneydirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4
2026-05-20Ward LayshadirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4
2026-05-20BREWER ROSALIND GdirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4
2026-05-20Friend MatthewdirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4
2026-05-20Freyre MichelledirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4
2026-05-20ISAACSON WALTERdirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4
2026-05-20PHILIP EDWARD MdirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4
2026-05-20PHILIP EDWARD MdirectorAward / grant2,3962,396Form 4
2026-05-20SHAPIRO EDWARDdirectorAward / grant2,1302,130Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'26 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-06-092026-05-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-06-092026-05-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-05-112026-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-30$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2026-04-072026-03-10$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2026-03-092026-02-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-29$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2026-02-062026-01-23$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2026-01-122025-12-19$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-05-122025-04-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-04-102025-03-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-06-052024-05-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2024-01-042023-12-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2023-12-062023-11-03$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.