Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.00 · now $5.00 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UAA has typically landed between $3.89 and $6.18 — a range of −22.1% to +23.5% from the issuance price $5.00.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.00) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where UAA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.89 (-2.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.41–$5.37
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.89–$6.18
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −50.5% | −50.5% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-21 | −49.8% | −49.8% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −48.9% | −48.9% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-01-18 | +52.9% | +0.0% | +60.9% |
| 2009-04-01 | +49.3% | +0.0% | +52.2% |
| 2009-03-27 | +47.1% | −3.4% | +47.1% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | WATSA V PREM ET AL | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 730,238 @ $6.18 | $4.5M | +3.8% of holding | +20.0% | +5.5% | 20,134,314 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-26 | WATSA V PREM ET AL | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 265,658 @ $6.30 | $1.7M | +0.6% of holding | +20.0% | +5.5% | 42,224,581 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-23 | WATSA V PREM ET AL | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 928,397 @ $6.15 | $5.7M | +5.0% of holding | +22.3% | +3.7% | 19,404,076 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | WATSA V PREM ET AL | tenPercentOwner | Purchase | 411,057 @ $6.15 | $2.5M | +2.3% of holding | +21.1% | +3.1% | 18,475,679 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.