UAUnder Armour, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $4.87 · now $4.87 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, UA has typically landed between $3.83 and $6.00 — a range of −21.3% to +23.1% from the issuance price $4.87.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,657 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-01-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($4.87) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where UA has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $4.87 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.83worst · -21.3%$6best · +23.1%
  • now $4.87 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.75 (-2.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.29–$5.21
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.83–$6
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,657 windows spanning 2016-01-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2016-04-07−55.0%−55.0%+0.0%
2016-04-06−53.7%−54.0%+0.2%
2016-04-05−52.7%−52.7%+2.9%
3 best
2025-12-23+43.1%+0.0%+43.1%
2025-12-19+42.4%+0.0%+42.4%
2022-11-02+42.1%+0.0%+42.1%

2,657 overlapping windows · 2016-01-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
+1.1%
n=10
Feb
45%
+0.6%
n=11
Mar
18%
−8.3%
n=11
Apr
55%
−2.7%
n=11
May
27%
−4.9%
n=11
Jun
73%
+3.4%
n=11
Jul
45%
+0.4%
n=11
Aug
36%
−7.4%
n=11
Sep
36%
−1.3%
n=11
Oct
60%
−1.0%
n=10
Nov
70%
+9.7%
n=10
Dec
60%
−2.6%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$8$42026-08-11: 1 insider purchase, $100K — Taleghani Reza2026-05-14: 1 insider purchase, $500 — WATSA V PREM ET AL2026-05-13: 1 insider purchase, $3.7M — WATSA V PREM ET AL2026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $2.2M — WATSA V PREM ET AL2026-01-28: 2 insider purchases, $6.9M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2026-01-27: 2 insider purchases, $9.5M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2026-01-21: 1 insider purchase, $29.5M — WATSA V PREM ET AL2026-01-20: 1 insider purchase, $9.9M — WATSA V PREM ET AL2026-01-16: 1 insider purchase, $10.3M — WATSA V PREM ET AL2025-12-30: 2 insider purchases, $67.4M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2025-12-29: 2 insider purchases, $11.6M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2025-12-26: 2 insider purchases, $6.3M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2025-12-24: 2 insider purchases, $6.0M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2025-12-23: 2 insider purchases, $12.4M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2025-12-22: 2 insider purchases, $34.6M — WATSA V PREM ET AL …2025-08-21: 1 insider purchase, $488K — Sweeney Robert John2025-08-18: 1 insider purchase, $520K — El-Erian Mohamed2025-08-13: 2 insider purchases, $503K — Fitzpatrick Dawn N., Aumen Eric J2025-08: 4 open-market purchases, $1.5M2025-12: 12 open-market purchases, $138.4M2026-01: 7 open-market purchases, $66.1M2026-05: 3 open-market purchases, $5.9M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $100K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Taleghani Reza — Purchase on 2026-08-11, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-05-14, filed same daytenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-05-13, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-01-28, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-01-28, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-01-27, filed 2 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-01-21, filed same daytenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-01-20, filed 1 day after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2026-01-16, filed 5 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-30, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-29, filed same daytenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-29, filed same daytenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-26, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-26, filed 3 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-24, filed 5 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-23, filed 6 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-23, filed 6 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed 7 days after the tradetenPercentOwner WATSA V PREM ET AL — Purchase on 2025-12-22, filed 7 days after the tradedirector Sweeney Robert John — Purchase on 2025-08-21, filed same daydirector El-Erian Mohamed — Purchase on 2025-08-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fitzpatrick Dawn N. — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Aumen Eric J — Purchase on 2025-08-13, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-11Taleghani RezaofficerPurchase18,656 @ $5.37$100K+27.1% of holding−5.3%not yet — horizon still open87,621Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-14WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase100 @ $5.00$500+0.0% of holding+17.1%not yet — horizon still open44,179,216Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-13WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase739,521 @ $4.97$3.7M+1.7% of holding+17.9%not yet — horizon still open44,179,116Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-12WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase438,723 @ $4.99$2.2M+1.0% of holding+19.0%not yet — horizon still open43,439,595Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-28WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,022,333 @ $6.20$6.3M+4.9% of holding+22.3%−24.9%21,999,128Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-28WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase89,786 @ $6.29$565K+0.2% of holding+22.3%−24.9%43,000,872Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-27WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase842,481 @ $6.20$5.2M+4.2% of holding+19.7%−27.7%20,976,795Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-27WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase686,505 @ $6.30$4.3M+1.6% of holding+19.7%−27.7%42,911,086Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-21WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase5,000,000 @ $5.89$29.5M+38.3% of holding+28.8%−20.1%18,064,622Form 4 · filed same day
2026-01-20WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,769,581 @ $5.62$9.9M+15.7% of holding+32.0%+14.9%13,064,622Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-16WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,837,686 @ $5.60$10.3M+19.4% of holding+34.9%+18.0%11,295,041Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-30WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase11,504,478 @ $5.14$59.1M+37.8% of holding+22.4%+22.5%41,958,923Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-30WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,677,991 @ $4.95$8.3M+21.6% of holding+22.4%+22.5%9,457,355Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-29WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,763,396 @ $4.73$8.3M+6.1% of holding+29.7%+31.8%30,454,445Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-29WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase734,430 @ $4.48$3.3M+10.4% of holding+29.7%+31.8%7,779,364Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-26WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase1,000,000 @ $4.64$4.6M+3.6% of holding+34.2%+31.7%28,691,049Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-26WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase385,850 @ $4.42$1.7M+5.8% of holding+34.2%+31.7%7,044,934Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-24WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase875,548 @ $4.62$4.0M+3.3% of holding+40.1%+27.7%27,691,049Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-24WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase438,333 @ $4.40$1.9M+7.0% of holding+40.1%+27.7%6,659,084Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-23WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,124,452 @ $4.54$9.7M+8.6% of holding+42.4%+32.9%26,815,501Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-12-23WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase620,801 @ $4.38$2.7M+11.1% of holding+42.4%+32.9%6,220,751Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade
2025-12-22WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase5,383,513 @ $4.53$24.4M+27.9% of holding+41.1%+26.7%24,691,049Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-12-22WATSA V PREM ET ALtenPercentOwnerPurchase2,355,641 @ $4.36$10.3M+72.6% of holding+41.1%+26.7%5,599,950Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade
2025-08-21Sweeney Robert JohndirectorPurchase100,000 @ $4.88$488K+296.8% of holding−10.7%+42.5%133,696Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-18El-Erian MohameddirectorPurchase100,000 @ $5.20$520K+858.4% of holding−8.0%+43.5%111,650Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Fitzpatrick Dawn N.directorPurchase100,000 @ $4.93$493K+296.8% of holding−4.8%+33.1%133,696Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-13Aumen Eric JofficerPurchase2,045 @ $4.89$10K+2.3% of holding−4.8%+33.1%91,796Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03Shadman MehriofficerSale16,287 @ $6.14$100K−7.8% of holding+4.9%−44.5%191,796Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

125 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-28Pestridge Simon JamesofficerWithheld for tax3,679233,729Form 4
2026-08-26Fitzpatrick Dawn N.directorAward / grant29,880214,525Form 4
2026-08-26El-Erian MohameddirectorAward / grant29,880264,260Form 4
2026-08-26DEVARD JERRIdirectorAward / grant29,880197,875Form 4
2026-08-26COLTHARP DOUGLAS EdirectorAward / grant29,880353,146Form 4
2026-08-26Plank Kevin AdirectorAward / grant2,165,5336,206,831Form 4
2026-08-26Whitesell PatrickdirectorAward / grant29,880156,476Form 4
2026-08-26Sweeney Robert JohndirectorAward / grant29,880214,525Form 4
2026-08-26Smith Eugene DuboisdirectorAward / grant29,88090,929Form 4
2026-08-26Gibbs David WdirectorAward / grant29,880207,435Form 4
2026-08-26Olson Eric TdirectorAward / grant29,880217,148Form 4
2026-08-26Everson CarolyndirectorAward / grant29,880139,094Form 4
2026-08-15Aumen Eric JofficerWithheld for tax3,568141,194Form 4
2026-07-01Sweeney Robert JohndirectorAward / grant4,304184,644Form 4
2026-07-01COLTHARP DOUGLAS EdirectorAward / grant5,575323,266Form 4
2026-07-01El-Erian MohameddirectorAward / grant10,368234,379Form 4
2026-07-01Everson CarolyndirectorAward / grant782109,214Form 4
2026-07-01Fitzpatrick Dawn N.directorAward / grant4,304184,644Form 4
2026-07-01Gibbs David WdirectorAward / grant4,499177,555Form 4
2026-07-01Whitesell PatrickdirectorAward / grant3,912126,596Form 4
2026-05-15Plank Kevin AdirectorWithheld for tax61,6364,041,298Form 4
2026-05-15Curran ShawnofficerWithheld for tax52,849555,838Form 4
2026-05-15Shadman MehriofficerWithheld for tax23,490165,054Form 4
2026-05-15Aumen Eric JofficerWithheld for tax7,467144,293Form 4
2026-05-15Liedtke EricofficerWithheld for tax34,233274,669Form 4
2026-05-15Peake AdamofficerWithheld for tax8,422308,260Form 4
2026-05-15Trent KaraofficerWithheld for tax54,907631,650Form 4
2026-05-14Trent KaraofficerAward / grant226,815686,557Form 4
2026-05-14Curran ShawnofficerAward / grant189,013608,687Form 4
2026-05-14Aumen Eric JofficerAward / grant60,484151,760Form 4
2026-05-14Peake AdamofficerAward / grant189,013316,682Form 4
2026-05-14Taleghani RezaofficerAward / grant957,855957,855Form 4
2026-04-01Sweeney Robert JohndirectorAward / grant4,911180,341Form 4
2026-04-01Whitesell PatrickdirectorAward / grant4,464122,683Form 4
2026-04-01Fitzpatrick Dawn N.directorAward / grant4,911180,341Form 4
2026-04-01COLTHARP DOUGLAS EdirectorAward / grant6,362317,690Form 4
2026-04-01Gibbs David WdirectorAward / grant5,134173,056Form 4
2026-04-01El-Erian MohameddirectorAward / grant11,830224,012Form 4
2026-04-01Everson CarolyndirectorAward / grant893108,431Form 4
2026-02-15Aumen Eric JofficerWithheld for tax2,37690,702Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Tim WalbergHousepurchase2026-06-032025-02-07$1–15K
Tim WalbergHousesale2026-06-032026-02-10$1–15K
Thomas R. CarperSenatesale2023-05-012023-04-13$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-06-102022-05-05$1–15K
Tommy TubervilleSenatesale2021-11-102021-10-18$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2021-11-092021-10-07$1–15K
Marie NewmanHousesale2021-06-102021-04-30$1–15K
Marie NewmanHousepurchase2021-05-092021-04-05$1–15K
Dean PhillipsHousepurchase2020-09-112020-08-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-09-112019-08-12$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Barbara J ComstockHousesale2018-01-032018-01-03$1–15K
Cheri BustosHouseexchange2017-05-152016-04-11$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2017-03-172017-02-03$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.